Both Miss Sky Warrior and Paradise Woods exploded yesterday. I\'m not going to guess on what each earned but will guess that both moved forward roughly 5 points or more making both of them bounce candidates. Would the more heavily raced filly be more likely to handle the jump in figure or is it more likely that we don\'t know how good the lightly raced filly is and what her threshold might be? Looking for opinions on that one. Jimbo care to enlighten?
Hey Wrongly,
I am guessing that I won\'t be betting on either filly. But I would prefer the one with more foundation, Miss Sky Warrior, of the two.
I think there is one more lens to look at both \"breakthrough\" numbers through.
As I said a few times, there was an intense speed bias at Aqueduct yesterday. I look at figures earned through a bias with a grain of salt and adjust downwards in my mind when handicapping. I am not saying that is the right way to do it, but that is something I do. So for argument\'s sake, let\'s say that Miss Sky Warrior ran a 4 or 5 point new top yesterday and we take off a couple points for the bias. That makes it a 2 point new top or so. For a filly with lots of foundation and 2 wins at 1 1/8.
A horse I would definitely love to have TGJB\'s 55-1 on.
Now, do I want that horse at 3-1 in a 14 horse field on OAks day. Different question.
I have to say though I am about as blind as can be with Miss Sky Warrior. Hated her in the Demoiselle, thinking no shot she could get 1 1/8 miles. She won. I also tossed her yesterday, thinking the distance was not her friend (although I did lose some confidence in that opinion as the track bias became apparent).
It is still early, but I would say that this is as wide open as the Oaks/Derby have been in quite a few years. Could be a good year to \"data mine\" for longer prices in both races. (although have to admit the more times I watch the replay of Irish War Cry\'s Wood, I think he is the horse to beat by quite a bit)
Jim
It won\'t be a 4-5 point top for Sky. Probably is for the Cali filly.