In theory, yesterday was the most important day as far as figuring out who the Derby Winner is.
Here are some thoughts on the races, with an eye going forward.
Santa Anita Derby
To me, the easiest race to analyze from the big preps. Stick a fork in all the horses who ran in it. For the first time in a few years, the California crop stinks (outside of the injured Mastery). There were signs before yesterday, like when Baffert shipped to Oaklawn with American Anthem and was horrendous in a race he owns. But yesterday clinched it. By this person\'s eye, Illiad is a 1-turn horse and he proved that again yesterday. They ran a contested pace all the way around the track yesterday, with Gormley sitting a perfect trip and he was life and death to get by Battle of Midway, who was on the inside of that 3-horse pace battle. Gormely isn\'t any good. As magnanimous as Mike Smith was yesterday, coming on TV and saying he should have stayed inside as it cost Reach the World a few lengths to go wide, he was being too nice. Off the contested pace, if Reach the World was any kind of serious horse, he would have showed some kick. He showed zero. At first blush, I wanted to give some credit to Battle of Midway for setting a contested pace and hanging on until late. That was until I saw that Royal Mo, a slow horse, who was 3 wide contesting the pace all the way around both turns, held 3rd and only got beat 1/2 length by Battle of Midway. Conclusion - the West coast horses stink, certainly no \"win\" contender in this race and also extremely unlikely to find any underneath horses out of this race (although will revisit that post draw and after reviewing sheets).
Toyota Blue Grass
Coming into the race, no less than 3 horses had \"Derby type sheets\" to me. Most of all of those was Practical Joke. Nice 2 year old top with room for development this year still. The problem for me is that the limited family is all sprinters and by my eye he looks and runs like a one turn horse. He will get a decent to good figure yesterday as he got a wide trip and thus he will go into the Derby most likely with an excellent sheet and be somebody that looks good and will be tempting to bet on. He has to be on the contender list, but yesterday again looked like a sprinter to me, a middle move and then flattened out late, albeit gamely. But the horse he didn\'t run down is a bit of a slug, so that has to be factored in. Tapwrit and McCracken had almost identical sheets with Tapwrit actually a bit better before yesterday. Tapwrit a \"4\" as a two year old top, ran twice, then a \"1\" this year, with McCracken a \"5\" as a two year old top, ran twice, followed by a \"2\" this year. Off of training styles/history, Tapwrit figured to run the better race yesterday with TAP notorious for running huge in the preps while ian Wilkes more of a \"point to race\" type trainer . As such, Tapwrit\'s horrendous performance makes him a complete toss if he moves forward. McCracken is a tougher call. Off the wide trip he may get something like a 1 or 2 in the race, which would put him at paired tops, with a room for development off his two year old top, trained by a guy who figures to have him run his best race next time out. Interesting at what may be an overlaid price, off of what looks like a dull performance without factoring the wide trip. I have no interest in Irap. Great ride by Frenchie to seize control and put the field to sleep. Slow horse coming in, big top, with a faster derby pace, toss. Bottom line is two horses to consider going forward, although I still think Practical Joke is a sprinter. But I would also take 5-2 odds that with yesterday\'s figures not done yet and another week of preps to come, that Practical Joke will be the \"value play\" of the seminar.
Wood Memorial
I already covered most of this in other posts. Irish War Cry ran extremely well. He has the look of a derby contender. Nice 2 year old top, dam side distance and will now have a very fast figure. Question will be is it too fast. I like having Graham Motion in the horse\'s corner. Battalion Runner is an easy toss. He had the grain of the track with him and was no match. Even without the Pletcher factor, he would have been a toss going forward off yesterday\'s performance. There was some chance before yesterday that Chad Brown was asking \"too much too soon\" for Cloud Computing. I think the race showed that. Talented horse for sure. But yesterday he wasn\'t a serious threat at all in the race. If Chad goes forward wit him off the mediocre race, I would make him a stronger chance for last than for first in the Derby. Conclusion - IMO the Derby favorite won the Wood. Nobody else to consider.
So I think there are 3 horses to keep an eye on out of yesterday\'s races. Irish War Cry, McCracken and Practical Joke. Forget the rest and forget West of the Mississippi for sure. An awful crop of California horses this year.
Thoughts?
Tough to argue with any of this IMO. I would add that McCracken gained some valuable experience with his trip in the BG and was probably not fully cranked for this race anyway. Trainer learned from one of the BEST about how to use a graded stakes race as a prep race for an even bigger graded stakes race next out. So you have to factor that in when you look at his sheet.
As far as the trip went, McCracken was in tight a bit on the first turn but did not get rank. He listened to his jockey all the way around, didn\'t run off with Practical Joke when that one ranged up to his outside. He waited, switched out, got his cue from the jock, responded with a decent 4 wide move on the turn and then flattened out down the stretch while trying to close into a soft early pace race shape. Jockey took care of him down the stretch too and did not empty the tank.
I would say this colt was more likely to get something out of this race rather than leave something behind, and I like his mind.
Jim,
I agree with the majority of your assessment. It appears Motion has to treat IWC with kid gloves. How he trains him up to the Derby will be interesting. Something to consider regarding Tapwrit: Last year Destin ran a huge figure at Tampa so Pletcher elected to try and train him up to the Derby to avoid the bounce, it didn\'t workout. Although Destin ran credibly after the long layoff coming in off of just a 1 1/16 race. This year he finds himself in the same situation with Tapwrit, so maybe he was put in the Bluegrass with the intention of getting the bounce out of the way? Just a thought.
I think you nailed it there.
If you\'re right that McCracken could get a 2 or maybe even a 1 he\'s still interesting to me too. I thought he got a horrendous trip last night and just the kind of trip I could be willing to excuse a poor effort from. That is until the stretch when he came out in the clear, I was really expecting a lot more from thereon and in, and what I saw there is enough for me to not consider him in the win spot come the 1st saturday in may. I might still use him underneath though, however he\'s a type that seems a bit vulnerable for the chaos expected in a 20 horse field.
I\'m not sold on Irish War Cry either, all though I agree it\'s the most impressive prep race per now. I think Mjellish makes very valid points in his post on the subject in the Wood Memorial-thread.
Per now, I must admit I actually do lean towards Always Dreaming. I expect him to run big, and I think there\'s many more reasons why the market will price Always Dreaming wrong, than Irish War Cry. For me, that\'s what value is about. It\'s not about price, but about odds related to actual chances. That\'s why I don\'t mind betting against statistics, specially not these kind of statistics that really doesn\'t say much about todays \"actual world\" (TempletonPeck covered this point extremely well). The \"real world\" in terms of probabilities really doesn\'t care much about false beliefs, biases, and simple heuristics - all though they sure are handy in convincing oneself that a bet should (or shouldn\'t) be made!
You could be right on getting the bounce out and there is always a different angle to everything. Here is mine. Trainers like Pletcher don\'t send their best 2YO to Calder to break a maiden in the fall. Now maybe he is thinking \"old school\" (remember the old Laurel Futurity) and wanted to stretch him out and get a 2 turn race in him. But he could have gone to Keeneland or Churchill Downs for that. Except the competition is a little tougher. Not Belmont in the Fall but better than Calder. Maybe I\'m wrong here. But I\'m not wrong to be leery....
JP,
I don\'t believe in \"get the bounce out of the way\". What does that mean? Not train the horse hard, let him run poorly, expecting him to bounce and he will then run big. Eh. no thanks.
The other problem is that Destin ran a big top in the Tampa Bay derby. Different situation. Tapwrit had moved forward ~3 points from his 2 year old top, which is healthy. Not a big \"bounce\" candidate.
If Tapwrit had done what McCracken did, run a representative but not \"winning\" race, then he would be live. He didn\'t run a step.
Horses don\'t win the derby off of complete non-efforts. Not for 22 years (Thunder Gulch). I don\'t want to bet that.
Jim
Tapwrit was coming off a top,didn\'t need the points and was under trained for the Bluegrass.
He had one nothing work since the TB Derby and that was two weeks back.
I don\'t really like him but a return to his top could get him underneath at a price.Bluegrass Cat and Invisible Ink both ran dull races in the Bluegrass.
JBoys was coming off a bigger top,and didn\'t need the points.
He\'s another one who isn\'t impossible to run back to his top at a price.
Hard to like either one off yesterday but if they are thriving at Churchill I can see using them.
Something in the 1-2 range with a trip probably gets you in the tri.
Furious Pete,
This post is not meant to be condescending, so please don\'t take it that way.
I lose track of who is who on the board, so I am not sure whether you are a TG newbie or somebody that has been here awhile. If you are a newbie, then I understand the possibility that you could like Always Dreamin.
But let\'s go with the assumption that you are a sheet reader and have knowledge of patterns.
From memory, Always Dreamin had something like a 5 - 9 - 9 in his last three races before the Florida Derby.
What possible number could you put next for the Florida Derby that would make this horse even remotely usable as a top 3 betting choice in the Derby?
There isn\'t one, I would argue. He has an atrocious pattern. Nothing will look right or good. And you aren\'t getting \"value\". He is a top 3 betting choice.
I will go one point further. Let\'s say TGJB screwed up one of the 9\'s and got it wrong. (personally, I think the first 9 could be a 6 or 7, but it isn\'t relevant). Even if you change one of the 9\'s to another number, the pattern still sucks.
The horse is a toss without being trained by Pletcher. Being trained by Pletcher makes him an \"uber-toss\".
He is the kind of horse your 9 year old son or daughter would like. Undefeated, all \"1\'s\" in the running lines for finishes.
I will probably put him in the winner\'s circle, but there is no better \"toss\" than this horse. A top 3 betting choice with a bad pattern, at best sitting on bounce, with running lines that will make the non-sophisticated player like him, trained by the worst derby trainer of the last 40 years.
Jim
10,5,9,9, 0-tu neg
No worries, not condescending at all. Lol.
You know what, that\'s exactly why I like him. Here\'s a horse that has done nothing wrong and that both \"stupid\", simple players won\'t like because everyone knows of Pletchers records in the Derby and assign them much too much weight, and because the wise guys have made up all kind of rules for their own peace of mind that denies them from liking him.
I\'m not sure which camp you belong to in there, to be honest, but either way you won\'t like him. That\'s obvious. Why should I care?
Take a look at Orb\'s sheet (https://www.thorograph.com/archive/files/kd2013.pdf). What were your position the 30th of march 2013? And then the 4th of may? You guys are busting Pletcher\'s balls every year because he takes too much out of them too early and calls him all kinds of names (\"greedy\", \"stupid\", \"most overrated trainer ever\" etc). When he\'s doing something different, that\'s wrong too. I know figures better than you ever will, but what I don\'t always understand is that you can take every figure so literally even though they are earned winning eased down 5 lengths in front. Always Dreaming may not win of course, but to not even consider him is a mistake and surely not what a winning horseplayer would do.
Cheers Frank. It doesn\'t look pretty but they don\'t always do.
Pete,
Most years I would be siding with Jimbo, this year, all bets are ON!!!
His pair of 9\'s are ugly but a bit deceiving. Tampa race was a boat race against nothing and the Gulf ALW race was not in the condition book. It was written for this horse TAP did not want to go in the FOY so they wrote a race for him. His hope was to have a target for him to run at, that did not happen, another boat race. He obviously could have run much faster in both, enough to pair his 2 yr old 5? You decide. Anyway you put it it\'s a bad pattern with that big a jump in the final prep but it\'s an awfuly bad year.
Good luck,
Frank D.
Furious Pete,
You picked the wrong horse in Orb. And you also showed that maybe the worst statement you have ever made is how much you know about figures....
Orb was a board darling here. I don\'t remember if I was first or second behind Jim Covello to jump on his bandwagon, but I liked orb in February of that year and posted here quite a few times about him - too many times.
Orb was trained by a trainer who is a notoriously conservative handler of horses. He ran a 2 year old top of 7, paired it first time out at 3, a healthy sign, then moved forward in the spring of his 3 year old season to become a serious race horse. Having run the negative 2 in the Florida Derby of course there was some risk of regression. But he had 5 weeks into the Derby and this is the important part, the fact that he was trained by Shug and not Pletcher makes a huge difference. It isn\'t a matter of \"liking\" or \"disliking\" Pletcher, because of the size of his operation there are so many more data points about him compared to other modern day trainers.
I never said \"stupid\" players will bet Always Dreamin. Unsophisticated. People that don\'t do their homework, don\'t pay attention to trends, don\'t understand patterns, etc.etc.etc.
Not stupid.
ONe could argue that all of us betting into a 20% rake game, with drugs/cheating prevalent everywhere, are STUPID.
Jim
Frank,
Et tu? The board\'s biggest Kool-Aid drinker thinks Always Dreamin\' has a shot?
Ugh.
Next thing you know, TGJB will be singing Always Dreamin\'s praises in the seminar.
Then I definitely give up.
Jim
Jim,
From our weekly chats and your weekly comment to me \" are you jerking off or looking at TG\" you know for a fact I\'m far from the world\'s biggest Kool Aide drinker. TG figures are without a doubt the biggest factor in my capping but the play I made yesterday on Constellation and you know the amount and the result was certainly not a TG play. It was strictly off a crazy Holendoefer ROI formulator stat. Paula was a TG single in that heat.
FD
Fair play, I know more about making them than reading them in light of sheet theory, I\'ll give you that. I don\'t want to put too much pride into this because that is never good, and I don\'t want to give anyone the impression that I love always dreaming either. I just say that I\'m leaning towards him at this point. There\'s a lot coming up that can change that opinion. But I do like that angle that neither the public nor the wise guys will be all over this one (relatively speaking). I don\'t think the 9 year olds will make much difference in the pools, either.
Your correct Pete,
My first bet wasn\'t until 10 years old on the JETS in the 69 Super Bowl.
While AD doesn\'t have the pattern, he does have a top recent figure that is good enough to win, and he has the running style that wins the Derby.
Lacking the pattern makes him a tough play as the favorite, but this is a comparative endeavor. Lots of warts on horses\' sheets this year. Who has the wonder pattern? Not Irish War Cry. Not anyone from Cali. The Dubai horse?
Anyway, we\'re still weeks away from the draw, so . . . .
AJ,
Already posted who will have decent patterns. No such thing as \"wonder pattern\".
TGJB obviously still has to do the work, but dollars to doughnuts that both McCracken and Practical Joke will have excellent patterns heading into the Derby, albeit needing to run a tad faster to win.
IWC will likely be sitting on bounce as MJellish pointed out, but he won\'t be looking as ugly as Always Dreamin for sure.
Classic Empire could still turn this thing upside down next week. He runs well, winning and running something in the \"0\" range, he would look pretty good heading into the Derby. He had run a 3, a 2 and a 0 last year, amongst his 5 races. He pairs his \"0\" or thereabouts next Saturday and maybe we forgive the horrendous race first time out this year and figure the trainer figured out what was wrong with the horse and he becomes a real serious player and maybe most likely winner.
Jim
An instant winner, nice one! Nassim Taleb writes interesting stuff about this, there\'s no \"beginners luck\" but there certainly is a survivorship bias suggesting it!
And really, how could you be so dismissive towards the kids Jimbo, seems like they have cleaned up pretty good lately in the Kentucky Derby.
Recent form going into the derby:
2016: Nyquist - 1 1 1 1 1 1 (odds 2.3/1)
2015: American Pharaoh - 1 1 1 1 (odds 2.9/1)
2014: California Chrome - 1 1 1 1 (odds 2.5/1)
2013: Orb - 1 1 1 1 (odds 5.4/1)
2012: I\'ll Have Another - 1 1 (odds 15.3/1)
Pete,
Those five winners are worth looking at . When you have a minute, take a look at their sheets.
Nyquist and California Chrome are somewhat similar Both had established 2 year old tops with some progression at 3. The \"problem\" for many (me included) was that neither had a figure advantage over the Derby fields and they would be favored. At 2.3 and 2.5 to 1 odds, in 20 horse fields or thereabouts, with no speed figure advantage, I couldn\'t play them.
AMerican Pharaoh was as tougher call. A fast horse on all figures. A well known foot problem that caused him to get a late 3 year old start, and a crammed schedule, without a lot of spacing. Some (me included), got hung up on that and forgot that he was trained by the best trainer of the last 40 years and bet against him. (I liked Firing Line).
We discussed Orb. I had I\'ll Have Another in the derby futures pool off the \"1\" in the San Felipe or some other prep in March. (forgetting which one)
But one thing all those winners had were reasonable patterns, no huge forward moves.
None of those winners had anything as ugly as 5 - 9 - 9 - 0.
And none were trained by a trainer with a near perfect pattern of bouncing in the derby with all his Gulfstream horses.
Jim
Yes. Of course. I\'ve bought the seminar most years and I obviously think the sheet theory approach to horse racing is very interesting, since I\'m here. However, the reason I buy TG every time I play US racing is because of their superior speed figures, and not because of a long lasting obligation towards sheet theory. Some sheet theory is valid, I\'m sure, and can bring about great betting opportunities that not everyone will see. Other parts are more dubious.
I can see why you can get emotionally invested over this years edition of the derby, specially when imagining a Pletcher win to Always Dreaming, because a lot is on stake here. Who\'s the better predictor of a derby winner; a 9 yo that only look at recent placings, or sworn sheet theorists ready to die by their swords? We\'ll see. At least there\'s a much bigger chance AD and Pletcher won\'t win, than that they will.
BTW, isn\'t a 7 point jump after a narrow win considered a negative? Puzzled by Orb.
Jimbo:
Battalion Runner is an easy toss? Great conditioner for him.
Hoping most have the same opinion.
Good Luck,
Joe B
Joe B.
Yes. Easy toss.
I don\'t call a soft trip on a speed favoring track a conditioner. Hard to imagine a better trip than he got.
And again, why in the world look at a pletcher horse that needs to move forward in the Derby? Which of his 50 runners moved forward in the Derby.
Yikes.
Jim
They weren\'t exactly crawling through the first 6. So not sure what \"soft trip\" you are referring to.
Pletcher\'s last 50 runners have nothing to do with whether this horse moves forward or not.
I can see the next 3 weeks being a lot of fun on here Jim.
Good Luck,
Joe B
Joe B.
Batillion is probably going to need some defections to make the Derby gate. Five with 40 points of that crew he is last in graded stakes earnings tie breaker 3 or 4 next Saturday will go past him.
Good luck,
Frank D.
Correction he is ahead of CC in earnings
Same owner as Always Dreaming.
Read somewhere yesterday Viola might be leaning against going with Battalion Runner.
Joe,
Did you not watch the other Aqueduct races other than the Wood?
Favorite wired the 1st race.
Brimstone, a notorious pea heart, wired the second.
Moon Over Beauty, non-competitive on numbers, wired the 3rd at 10-1.
Outplay, just OK on numbers, wired the 4th by 8 lengths.
Marriage Fever, non-competitive on numbers, just missed wiring the 5th at 15-1.
Even Thunder, longest shot in the field, came 2nd in the Bay Shore after trying to wired the field.
Tu Brutus ran a 119 Beyer from the front in the Excelsior.
Green Gratto wired the Carter at 55-1.
So, ABSOLUTELY, Battalion Runner got a soft trip. An uncontested lead with token pressure from 20-1 True Timber, is a soft trip on an intense speed track.
Jim
Jimbo,
I watched the entire AQU card Saturday and read the charts.
I would respectfully (and respectfully :) being the pivotal word) challenge the assumption that the Saturday AQU card was speed biased.
To avoid a semantical debate (and for the purposes of this post) I would define a wtw as just that. Leads gate to wire and/or leads at every call
Close to pace means just that. Did not lead from gate but stalked pace and did not lead at every call.
Closer means sat somewhere behind speed (maybe a few lengths or more closed.)
On Saturday, the early races certainly looked like a day that might have a speed bias. (even though the raw times were a bit on the slow side).
After the first two wtw winners (one at 4-5 and the other a lone speed type that was touted pre race by paddock folk), it had the makings of a \'speed biased\" track.
As to the rest of the card:
3rd race: close to pace (early speed finished last)
4th) wtw (even money favorite)
5th) Closer
6th) Closer
7th) Closer
8th race-Close to pace for (Send It In in Excelsior.)
9th race-WTW with an asterisk. Tommy Macho looked like a winner until shut off by runner up circa 18th pole. (read the chart or watch replay if you dd not see the race) TM was closer.
10th) IWC was 4th at first call. Close to the pace winner
11th) WTW
12th Closer
For the day,
4 WTW
1 WTW with an asterisk
3 Close to Pace
4 Closers
Based on \'expectations\' (that is how many of the wtw winners favored and/or made sense figure wise), I do not see where the \'speed\" type horses dominated the card nor do I feel they outran their pre-race expectations.(in four of the races the early speed finished last.
This will be my last post on this matter. I will \'respectfully :) not engage in any \"banter\" LOL.
Bob
Jim:
My point was not to rate his performance. I\'ll leave that to TG. My point was that the race is exactly what he needed from a conditioning standpoint.
May all be moot as pointed out by others that BR may not go or not get in. My list right now is a short one. TG was right---the west coast is slower.That being said, what to make of a west coast based maiden who wins the BG while running the length of the stretch on his wrong lead?!
In my mind,it eliminates PJ who is a nice 3yo with good numbers and may go on to win a 1 1/4 race this year. However I seriously doubt it will be in May. He was cranked for this one, unlike McCracken (who is on my short list).
As for the Wood winner, I\'m thinking another bounce is coming.
Let\'s see what surprises Arkansas has in store for us.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Joe- am curious why you state PJ was \" cranked up \" for the BlueGrass. It was his second start of year, lost ground on both turns and clearly hung in stretch. Given the connections- the owners are breeders- I would think third off- the Derby- would be fully cranked time, particularly in Chad Browns hands. As you state, he had a lovely sheet and it is possible this backward move - if not too far back- might be suggestive of a new top coming. He has flown under the radar discussion wise and may be more than 10-1, perhaps substantially more. His breeding on dams side does not cry out 1 1/4 but ain\'t bad. Curious as to your reasoning.Thanks
Ray Paulick may have summarized it best: \"Based on several tweets, no horse can possibly win the 2017 Kentucky Derby.\"
Obviously a great betting event, here\'s hoping the attrition rate is low over the next month.
Rezlegal
Not sure it was a backward move for practical joke.
Would bet it wasn\'t. Which is why I said he is going to have a nice looking sheet heading into the derby
Jim
First Pletcher horse to drop out of the Derby chase is One Liner.
Pletcher says the horse was just not working like he should and will get a freshening. I think that the negative number in his last race might have had something to do with it.Too fast too soon.
rezlegal Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Joe- am curious why you state PJ was \" cranked up
> \" for the BlueGrass. It was his second start of
> year, lost ground on both turns and clearly hung
> in stretch. Given the connections- the owners are
> breeders- I would think third off- the Derby-
> would be fully cranked time, particularly in Chad
> Browns hands. As you state, he had a lovely sheet
> and it is possible this backward move - if not too
> far back- might be suggestive of a new top
> coming. He has flown under the radar discussion
> wise and may be more than 10-1, perhaps
> substantially more. His breeding on dams side does
> not cry out 1 1/4 but ain\'t bad. Curious as to
> your reasoning.Thanks
Did he look like he was prepping? From just a visual perspective (and yes,I realize he has a good looking Derby sheet) PJ right now is not much more than a one turn closer in graded company.
IMO has a better chance of winning the Met Mile than the Kentucky Derby.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
FWIW-PJ one of 5 dual qualifiers ( Mc Craven and Gormely among others). I realize the dual qualifier is no longer as fashionable but it does suggest 1 1/4 not out of reach.
Jimbo,
Whose head is stuck under the Kool Aide bucket now?
A nice looking sheet, maybe with a pair?
The eye test:
Three 2 turn races no wins and couldn\'t pass an 0-7 maiden in the stretch that came into the Bluegrass with a top of 6.75
If you could get 40/1 on May 6th it\'s worth a shot off his pretty sheet but you\'ll be lucky to get 15/1 with Chad and the price compaction trend of recent years.
JB was right we nuts are coming out of our shells !!!
Frank D.
Frank,
I spent a paragraph saying that Practical Joker looks like a sprinter to me, visually. And siblings are sprinters.
That said,
2 year old top of \"2\". with a 2 year old line of 5-5-2-3.
Goes away for the winter.
Comes back with a 1 first time out. Then what I think will be another 1 or thereabouts on Saturday.
Only developed 1 point off the 2-year old top, paired tops maybe this year.
3rd off the layoff into the Derby. With a good trainer.
15-1 more than fair, if I am right about the Bluegrass number AND he trains well.
You have a bunch of newbie and even board regulars still talking about Pletcher horses that will be half that price with horrendous sheets.
There are many worse ideas than Practical Joke.
Will give you the choice of which Pletcher horse you want against him in a matchup bet. Steak and wine dinner at Saratoga this summer is the bet.
Jim
No TAP soon to be retirees for me thank you.
I\'ll take Giacomo.
Good thing we\'re friends,new nuts would think we\'re arguing!
Giacomo c/b masquerading as Hence this year. Of course his sheet is ugly so he can\'t have a chance. But, gotta believe, off his last race, he can get the distance on his best day.
Hence\'s sheet resembles that of a different Derby bomb.
Jim, what horse has looked better on the track than AD this prep season? I certainly am not arguing against anything you\'re saying,horrible pattern, obnoxious forward move, and the trainer that I myself vowed just last year that I\'d never bet in the derby again even if he started 19/20 runners.
But what did you see this weekend that gives you confidence?
I saw that same stat, and just picking that spot for that horse seemed to scream live, Not trying to red board, in all honesty that was one of two races I actually hit hard Saturday, and in fairness the other was the Bayshore strictly do to the TG seminar giving out the 15-1 shot underneath. Just acknowledging I saw the same thing.
Boardedup,
AD has looked good on the track in one race this prep season.
Irish War Cry looks much better on many levels. Covered that already. Don\'t want to clutter the board.
But IWC also has looked good visually twice. Two open length wins at two different tracks, running fast numbers in both.
MJ makes a good bounce case, but would like to see how he comes out of the Wood, how he trains and then make a call. At any rate, certainly a smaller bounce chance than Always Dreamin, on both pattern/sheet and TRAINER.
Jim
Again, not arguing with anything you say, for my money IWC will be the one I\'m watching closely the next few weeks (like we all aren\'t going to over analysis them all or something??) and what happens next week can certainly change everything as you and others have said above.
I really was \"rooting\" for more in the stretch out of PJ, I don\'t think he wants any part of 1 1/4, though I think he\'s a very nice horse. I want to find excuses for that one. I just don\'t know if there\'s anything in the numbers or in his training over the next month that\'ll change my mind unfortunately.
BTW I also liked Orb and Firing Line... and I think Danza ran much much better than history tends to remember, cheers
Will be very interested to see the Bluegrass number. While the time looks pretty good against the fillies, that race was an awful. Three of the superfecta horses were coming off of double digit figures, and the winner had paired 14s (fourteens!).
Agree
Having not seen Hences\'s sheet I\'m going to guess Commanding Curve.
The Bird
Went the day well
I\'ll guess Mind That Bird, c/b a geography thing. If memory serves Hence was a solid dependable 10 prior to his jump up. Somewhat slower than MTB\'s 8\'s.
Mind that Bird and he\'s actually faster than that one. Driving line.
Watched the BG again. Not crazy about how McCracken broke from the gate. Sometimes it means nothing. Sometimes it does.
Good Luck,
Joe B
Since other guesses have been taken, I\'ll go with Animal Kingdom, if he counts as a bomb.
You won\'t see much of IWC.
One work at Fair Hill in around three weeks then ship to Churchill Derby week.
Again, as usual quality comments. As per McCRAKEN, very solid race sets him up as strictly the one to beat a month out. Broke out enough to grab the rein, bumped, angled between to avoid the day long, nasty kickback, as noted was unaffected when outside rival surged, yet settled with far more maturity than most sophomores ever display. Finished OK enough with modest pressure in a race he figured to need.
Two others; \"Irish\" beat nothing in NY sans the typically talented but unsound UnB\'s Song colt. Multiple Stakes winner faced a modest G2 winner off form and the other colts who would not be favored NW2 life.
GORMLEY is better than most think and in remarkable hands.
Lastly, would not call a sophomore colt, a grade II SW, bred as good as the registry allows, a slug. bbb
Amen to that. I\'ve seen more horses with good patterns lose the derby than horses with bad patterns win the derby.
That one is even funnier than usual, if you look at which races got the GI status and which didn\'t. Not just the 3yo colt races, the Carter/Commenwealth and Ashland/Gazelle also. Class my ... eye. (Name that film reference).
ajkreider Wrote:
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> Since other guesses have been taken, I\'ll go with
> Animal Kingdom, if he counts as a bomb.
Oh, 20-1\'s in the bomb neighborhood, to be sure.
I meant MTB, but yeah, AK too.
Wow, nobody?
Cary Grant in the Philadelphia Story.
\"C. K. Dexter Haven...?
Did I win a prize. On another note, Jerry any comments on testing in NY or what the future might hold?
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/220913/new-york-shifts-all-drug-test-costs-to-horsemen-tracks
No, that was news to me.