Been a while since the Wood produced a Derby winner. That may change this year.
Good Luck,
Joe B
Which one Joe?
I\'d just like to find a horse which might be able to put two races together in succession.
That race is going to come up very fast.
It has probably at least produced the favorite. It could prove hard to get any value out of him though, but we\'ll see. AD second choice I guess by now, and then there\'s a bunch of hopefuls behind there again.
I must say I really look forward to this one, it will be an extraordinary betting race!
Tavasco,
If you are considering betting any Wood horse besides the winner, you must not have watched the race.
Easily the most impressive prep of the year.
The question will be if \"fast\" is \"too fast\".
For those that mistakenly thought the Florida Derby day was a speed favoring track, please review today\'s Aqueduct results. THAT was a speed favoring track.
Now that said, Irish War Cry broke a tad slow, let a fast horse in Battalion Runner get an easy lead, while IWC was a bit wide on the first turn. He approached the front runner with a wide trip, again wide on the second turn, under a hand ride and then pulled away in the stretch.
3.5 lengths from 1st to 2nd and 3.5 lengths from 2nd to 3rd.
A fast race against the clock and an easy win by a horse who was 3w/2w.
Dam side breeding to run all day. Trained by a man who has won the Derby.
There is your Derby favorite.
Figure out if he will bounce off the \"negative 2 or 3\" that he ran today.
Jim
Jimbo, I should never have posted what I did. Several issues:
1. The board needs a delete button, so that when I put my foot in my mouth I can hide my mistakes. Others may have occasion also. To Joe B my apology.
2. My first thought was the lackluster performance of horses going on to Kentucky from the wood. Invariably they have good numbers which are good for nothing. As in here we go again.
3. My other thought was the winner\'s last race in FL the FOY? It was a major flop and so, without knowing what caused it last time its fair to conclude the horse is very capable of bouncing and that was before TGJB noted the race was very fast!
So, like you mentioned I appreciate his trainer in general as well as having won the roses.
I\'m so prejudiced against Wood graduates, It hadn\'t occurred to me that this years winner might be the Derby favorite. Which I now realize is to my benefit.
Not that I\'m confident about any of the qualifiers except those from Dubai and mox nix they won\'t be there I suppose. The two Tampa prospects go down in flames @ Kee to a SoCal maiden and the better one (arguably) runs in the Arkansas Derby.
So for the NY fans, a horse to get excited about, sure won\'t fault his race I\'ll be looking for a Derby prospect that will not be one of the 1/2 dozen that will be trying to win at the first call.
For those (many) with futures bets I am especially happy. Good Luck.
Preliminary Beyer is only 101. Timeform US actually has Irap (pace-adjusted) faster than Irish War Cry.
I figure IWC was only about 3.5 TG points faster than Cloud Computing. Hard for me to believe that Cloud Computing went forward.
Unless something runs away and hides in Arkansas next week,the Fl Derby winner will more than likely be the public choice.
Good Luck,
Joe B
Jimbo-- speaking of bouncing, my only future win bet was Miss Sky Warrior at 55-1 or so. Now what...
You could be right, but we\'ll see. Draw will be important too, but Pletcher factor and wise guy-money could well have Irish War Cry as the post time favorite IMO. Haven\'t seen the TG-figures yet for neither AD or IWC though.
The problem race for the day seems like the Excelsior. If IWC gets in the negative 2 range, then Send It In gets what, a neg 4 or 5, even with the lesser weight? And Tu Brutus gets a big negative number as well. It fits if the show horse gets his usual 3 (7 in a row!), but still - a five year old now a competitor for Arrogate?
Favorite, yes. Winner? The question remains, what happened at GP?
No idea yet about wind or possible changing track speed, but the older horses were carrying a lot less weight than the 3 yos. Still will clearly come up very big.
Unless the track was slowing down there were an awful lot of Xs in the Gazelle...like all but one.
Send it in 119 Beyer.
AJ,
I don\'t see it as a problem.
If I look at the Excelsior then the Carter which followed and then the Wood, I think the raw times might suggest the track slowed down.
Secondly, Send It In ran huge. Those are older horses with established form and numbers. There was a 15 length back gap to 3rd. That figure has to be very very big, and yes, it will be an outlier on his sheet. But that happens.
Let\'s see what TGJB comes up with for the Wood. I will stick with ~negative 2 as my guess.
Hmm...
55-1 on the likely favorite.
Coming in what will be a huge top, albeit with the grain of the track on a pretty intensely biased day.
What did the guy with the huge future on Leicester City do? He sold it before they clinched, at a profit.
Good luck
JoeB,
Would bet a whole lot of money that the Florida Derby winner is NOT the DErby favorite.
One stakes race, no 2 year old foundation, slow figures except for 1 race.
Not to mention that even the general public and people who know nothing at all about horse racing (like BellsBendBoy), are aware of Pletcher\'s Derby record.
He will take money. But no favorite.
Jim
A big win by Classic Empire next week may make him the favorite?
I think we are looking at a 4/1 or 9/2 favorite the first Saturday in May.
When I\'m alive to decent future bet I usually offer to cut someone in for a fair price, usually someone who also can reciprocate worthwhile info somewhere else down the line. That way you are both eliminating risk, guaranteeing a profit AND doing someone a favor that could pay dividends.
Dunno what to do with IWC in 4 weeks. Trainer won with Animal Kingdom a few years ago, but this is a much different type of colt who already reacted once to a 2 1/2 point new top. I note that the trainer gave him 3 weeks off before his next work after the Dec 31st win, then 2 works before his win in the Holy Bull. Then another 3 weeks off, one work and the bounce in the FOY. Then another 3 weeks off, 2 works and the forward move yesterday.
3 weeks between a race and next work is long time. My guess is racing takes a lot out of this colt. If the 2 point move to top of 1ish set him back, what is 3 or so point move to a big negative number for a 3 year old likely to do? Off 4 weeks rest?
My best guess is typically I would read IWC sheet as \"next race the bounce is coming again\" unless I have strong evidence to the contrary.
With Animal Kingdom there was some question about how he would handle dirt so we got to see a strong 6F work at Churchill before the Derby that was lights out. We probably don\'t get to see if this colt can do that. The plan as I understand it is to take IWC back to Fair Hill and ship in last week to Churchill. He already has a history of light training between races so we aren\'t likely to learn a thing.
Going to be a tough read.
I think I can probably use Betfair to middle the future bet. Oaks pool should be liquid.
Wood is a tough one to call. You can argue that this was the most impressive prep winner so far. If there is a concern its the 39 and change for the last three furlongs. It would help if he gets an American Pharoah type setup in Derby.
I wouldn\'t mind seeing Motion win. You know this horse will be competently trained.
Late part of Wood day ended up being very tough to work out, I\'m going to have to review it as horses come back. Which probably won\'t happen before the Derby.
I ended up having the track slowing down quite a bit, and still ended up with a ton of X\'s in the Gazelle. Lots of wind all day, and they last watered it after the fifth race. Very tricky, and obviously very important. Gave both winners big new tops.
mjellish, trust your instincts and analysis. Some are born to take a beating, others can\'t. This is without a doubt a slow recovery horse. He\'ll win some big races later this summer, but he\'s an easy toss for the Derby.
Correction, watered after fifth and tenth.
MJELLISH:
Your post really got in my head as I was all set to wheel this horse.
I went to bed with your post in my head and woke up with it.
My only explanation is do you trust Motion?
It is well known the owners want to win the Haskell more than the Derby with this NJ Bred.
IWC would of had more time between the FL Derby and the KY Derby than the Wood and the KY Derby to recover.
With that being said I do not believe Motion will run a horse that is not 100% ready to compete in the Derby.
John
Won\'t run unless he\'s 100%.
1. That doesn\'t mean he can\'t or won\'t bounce. Some trainers for whatever reason are able to avoid the bounce, aka Baffert. Can you say the same for Motion?
2. I\'m remind of the revered Michael Matz running Barbaro in the Preakness. Anyone who saw that colt the morning of the Preakness knew he wasn\'t right. Yet they ran, never thinking something terrible might happen. The point is there\'s pressure to run and run they will even at 51%.
Was listening to Steve Byk yesterday and heard that the Excelsior came back with a 119 Beyer. Didnt catch what the Wood winner rec\'d, but that nmbr is Arrogate territory. Cant wait to see the track variant. Wondering if the FTL in the Holy Bull precipitated the Moon bounce for IWC in the FOY?
The Oaks s/b interesting as well with Mandella\'s horse running off the screen 1st time long. I\'m gonna guess a knockout nmbr?
Would Motion have run a horse that wasn\'t 100% ready to compete in the Fountain Of Youth?
Good points by all.
I like the FTL theory as well.
Since this horse is at Fair Hill what is the best way to keep tabs on him?
Thanks
John
I am sure that he wouldnt. Using the analogy that sometimes a trainer doesnt know the horse is sick until the stress of a race brings it out, maybe the big # run as FTL exacerbated the regression. Its too bad we may find out in the KY Derby as one of the Favs (likely).
Wrongly Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> John
>
> Won\'t run unless he\'s 100%.
>
> 1. That doesn\'t mean he can\'t or won\'t bounce.
> Some trainers for whatever reason are able to
> avoid the bounce, aka Baffert. Can you say the
> same for Motion?
>
> 2. I\'m remind of the revered Michael Matz running
> Barbaro in the Preakness. Anyone who saw that
> colt the morning of the Preakness knew he wasn\'t
> right. Yet they ran, never thinking something
> terrible might happen. The point is there\'s
> pressure to run and run they will even at 51%.
Baffert is better at avoiding the bounce because he\'s better at spotting. His premier horses do well in the Derby because doesn\'t get them amp\'d to go until the big race and he\'s better than most at knowing when they need to recover.. I also think that he just does a much better job than other trainers in identifying strong, stable, fast-recovering horses when they are younger. When Baffert has entered with surprise late-bloomers (Midnight Interlude, Bob and John), he doesn\'t do as well with them. I bet he would prefer skipping the Derby with these types.
He did okay with War Emblem.
I would answer your question by saying I trust Motion just as much as I would trust any other trainer with a 3 year old colt that won a major Derby prep. Meaning the colt is going to run in the KY Derby unless something is obviously wrong. That\'s not the same thing as only running if everything is 100% right.
Hopefully IWC will get one work over the CD strip the Sat or Sun before the race. It may be hard to assess his condition based on gallops alone.
Hell of a purchase by the Prince after that Illinois Derby. Who was advising him?
It could change,but Motion has him getting his only work at Fair Hill(on the same schedule working 3 weeks after a race)then shipping to Churchill the week of the Derby.
I think he prefers the quiet of Fair Hill as long as possible.
sekrah Wrote:
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> Hell of a purchase by the Prince after that
> Illinois Derby. Who was advising him?
Richard Mulhall was the Prince\'s Race Manager during the War Emblem and Point Given timeframe. Richard (deceased) was CA trainer, Kristen Mulhall\'s father.