Pletcher's record in the Derby has been well documented and I do not ned to remind this list of their overall record. I do think you need to look at the merit of each horse overall, but you must consider the trainer as well. Given it seems he may end up with a number of starters this year, it would be prudent to check his history in some detail. Pletcher\'s record in the Derby for the placings that matter in terms of wagering is that he has had 45 starters with 1 win, 2 seconds, 3 thirds and 2 fourths and 0 fifths. Just 17.8% of his Derby starters have finished with a placing that has returned pari-mutuel dollars in some form. He has not had much success in this race, but what about his horses that have run well, what can we say about them?
One way to look at it is that of his three exacta finishers, all three of them did not win their previous two races prior to the Derby. In fact 62.5% of his superfecta finishers lost both of their last two preps. The only horse to win two preps and finish in the money for Pletcher in the Derby was Revolutionary. Pletcher also had two horses win one of their previous two preps and finish in the superfecta. If you look at just the last prep, 23/45 of his runners won their last prep race, while 22/45 did not win their final prep race before the Derby. Their respective records:
Won last race prior to the Derby = 23-0-0-2-0 (17 finished in the back half of the field)
Did not win last race prior to the Derby = 22-1-2-1-2 (14 finished in the back half of the field)
In terms of odds, his horses under 10/1 have not done that poorly – here is the breakdown:
odds below 10/1 = 12-1-0-3-0
odds from 10/1 to 24/1 = 13-0-0-0-1
odds 25/1 and above = 20-0-2-0-1
A statistician might argue that there have not been enough trials in either case to warrant a reasonable conclusion, but certainly there seems to be a trend. First, Pletcher horses do not run very well in the Derby and second, the ones that have success tend not to be winners of their last race, but are less than 10/1. Here is a further breakdown:
45 total starters
1 winner (2.2%)
3 exacta finishers (6.7%)
6 trifecta finishers (13.3%)
8 superfecta finishers (17.8%)
23 starters won last prep race
0 winners (0.0% of group, 0.0% of total)
0 exacta finishers (0.0% of group, 0.0% of total)
2 trifecta finishers (8.7% of group, 4.4% of total)
2 superfecta finishers (8.7% of group, 4.4% of total)
22 starters did not win last prep race
1 winner (4.5% of group, 2.2% of total)
3 exacta finishers (13.6% of group, 6.7% of total)
4 trifecta finishers (18.2% of group, 8.8% of total)
6 superfecta finishers (27.3% of group, 13.3% of total)
9 starters won both last 2 preps
0 winners (0.0% of group, 0.0% of total)
0 exacta finishers (0.0% of group, 0.0% of total)
1 trifecta finisher (11.1% of group, 2.2% of total)
1 superfecta finisher (11.1% of group, 2.2% of total)
21 starters won exactly 1 of last 2 preps
0 winners (0.0% of group, 0.0% of total)
0 exacta finishers (0.0% of group, 0.0% of total)
1 trifecta finisher (4.8% of group, 2.2% of total)
2 superfecta finishers (9.5% of group, 4.4% of total)
15 starters won exactly 0 of last 2 preps
1 winner (6.7% of group, 2.2% of total)
3 exacta finishers (20.0% of group, 6.7% of total)
4 trifecta finishers (26.7% of group, 8.9% of total)
5 superfecta finishers (33.3% of group, 11.1% of total))
How many of those winners have been lightly raced, winning easy and in hand, while running slow figures?
It seems like the consensus is that he\'s either racing them too fast, or too slow, for anyone to make a bet.
Maybe he finally has figured something out?
If so, how it could pay to be young! That market is basically made up of money unable to separate much between yesterday and 1991. I\'ll bet Jimbo has lost zillions betting Pletcher in the derby already, no wonder he stears clear!
That smells of opportunity.
I for one would certainly look a bit longer than 30 seconds on this sheet, it could well end up as the value play. It\'s not impossible that come 6th of May we\'re looking at a sheet that looks a lot like Orb\'s.
Heraclitus once said, admittedly poorly translated, that "No man ever steps in the same river twice, for it\'s not the same river and he\'s not the same man."
Todd Pletcher is not the same trainer every year, and Kentucky Derby is not the same race as it used to be. Nor is Horse Racing. Nor is the overall standard of 3yo\'s. I\'m a bit sceptical to the idea of blindly leaning towards the statistical base rate when this base rate is based upon very few events, spanning over many years.
Talking statistics.
I\'m actually 50 % betting Pletcher in the derby (Super Saver and Materiality). Guess that makes Always Dreaming a must bet for me at anything above even money!
Unless I over looked it, since 2000 no Pletcher horse that came in the superfecta has ever ran a # lower than a 1 prior to the Derby.
Correct.
Super Saver came in with paired 2\'s
Bluegrass Cat ran a 1 at Tampa then bounced in the Bluegrass.
Invisible Ink ran a 1 in January then threw in a couple of bounces.
Danza and Revolutionary both coming in with 2\'s
None of them ran new tops in the Derby.
May I respectfully disagree with the following statement?
Molesap wrote: In terms of odds, his horses under 10/1 have not done that poorly – here is the breakdown:
odds below 10/1 = 12-1-0-3-0:
Since 2001 there have been 68 horses at exactly 10.00-1 or less (I picked this year as the year that the field had more than 13 betting interests although Pletcher started training Derby horses in 2000 with two of them hitting the super including Impeachment as a four horse Entry at 6.20-1 and More Than Ready at 20-1 in his first attempt).
All horses at 10.00-1 or less since and including 2001 Derby.
68-9-8-9-5
13.2% of the horses at 10-1 or less finished 1st.
24.9% of the horses at 10-1 or less finished 1st or 2nd.
38.1% of the horses at 10-1 or less finished 1st or 2nd or 3rd.
45.4% of the horses at 10-1 or less finished 1st or 2nd or 3rd of 4th.
All sixteen years a horse under 10-1 has hit the superfecta.
In six of those 16 years (37.5 percent) only 1 horse has hit the superfecta at 10-1 or less while all ten of the rest have had at least two horses at 10-1 or less hit the super (62.5%).
Molesap,
You put some time in and I respect the effort. Not sure there are any nuggets in the information though. Sometimes a lemon is a lemon. Pletcher derby horses, until proven otherwise, are like Dubai prepped horses, lemons. For years, the Pletcher horses were underlays, not so much anymore, because while us horseplayers may be slow to learn new lessons, most of us eventually figure it out.
Pete,
You may be the exception to that last sentence... :) I haven\'t lost a fortune betting Pletcher derby horses but I have used some of them from time to time, specifically Materiality a couple years back. That said, if you think there is going to be value in betting on a horse that went off at 6-1 in the futures pool that closed Sunday than you are in trouble.
Must murky derby picture I can remember in years. At first, when I saw the 6-1 on Always Dreamin I thought it was even dumber than the 8-1 on Mubtahij a few years back, or the even money people took on Unique Bella last month (I am redboarding neither as I commented sarcastically about both of them at the time). But who exactly were people supposed to bet. Don\'t get me wrong, 6-1 on Always Dreamin is insane. But do you want 9-1 on Gunnevara who ran about 4 steps on saturday and looks cooked? 10-1 on Classic Empire, who didn\'t run at all last race, hasn\'t trained right and may or may not show up. Girvin off the 91 beyer (don\'t know the TG figure, but can\'t believe it is much better). Malagacy at 16-1, trained by the worst Derby trainer in history, coming off a slow slow race where he staggered home, now going 1 1/4 miles?
Ugly situation. The 1 1/8 preps always separate the men from the boys (usually Miff\'s job to say that each year, but alas he is still MIA). I guess after this coming weekend we will have some horses to get excited about, but I don\'t know. tHis may be one of those crazier years.
Good luck
Jim
Fairmount1
You, of course, are correct. I should have been more careful in terms of what I said - what I meant was that relatively speaking (i.e. comparing Pletcher to himself), he has done better with horses less than 10/1 as half of his superfecta finishes have come from that group that only represents 12 starters. While it is not surprising he has done better with lower priced horses, I found that idea to mentally be in opposition with idea that his horses that have not been as successful in prep races have been the ones that ran better in the Derby. I had not done a breakdown of horses at 10/1 or less the way you put it - interesting indeed. My guess is that since they replaced the graded stakes earnings system for the points based system in 2013, there has been a much greater percentage of horses under 10/1 in the superfecta as the race seemingly has been more formful.
People who have been at this a lot longer than I and have wagered substantially more as well always say about Pletcher, Brown, Baffert... take the longer of the 2. If there\'s value to be had, thats where you find it. Arrogate and Danza come to mind. Sure looks like its gonna be crazy!
jimbo66 Wrote:
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> But who exactly
> were people supposed to bet. Don\'t get me wrong,
> 6-1 on Always Dreamin is insane. But do you want
> 9-1 on Gunnevara who ran about 4 steps on saturday
> and looks cooked? 10-1 on Classic Empire, who
> didn\'t run at all last race, hasn\'t trained right
> and may or may not show up. Girvin off the 91
> beyer (don\'t know the TG figure, but can\'t believe
> it is much better). Malagacy at 16-1, trained by
> the worst Derby trainer in history, coming off a
> slow slow race where he staggered home, now going
> 1 1/4 miles?
The takeaway here, IMO, is \"don\'t bet derby futures.\"
Furious Pete Wrote:
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> I\'m a bit sceptical to the idea
> of blindly leaning towards the statistical base
> rate when this base rate is based upon very few
> events, spanning over many years.
I think this is excellent advice. We look at samples of 10 and 20 races here, in cases where it could take 1000 or 100,000 or 1,000,000 to reach a long run, we have no idea. It could certainly take a sample of a few hundred to see any meaningful trend. \"Stats\" based on a sample of 10 or 20 races aren\'t stats, they\'re anecdotes.
These \'stats\' on Pletcher Derby horses are a fine example of this problem: he has one winner in 45. If he has another this year, he\'ll almost DOUBLE his win percentage!
In another gambling community I freuqent, poker, it took a few years of online play for people to realize the long run is reallllllly long. In 2005, we thought 50,000 hands was a good sample from which to draw some really accurate stats about winrate/standard dev/etc. By 2010, it was accepted that you probably needed a matter of *millions* of hands.
So for the purposes of figuring out who\'s going to win a Derby, I guess what I\'m saying is this: by all means look for trends, but don\'t marry yourself to them because you can\'t know yet what weight they should be attributed, if any - \"Strong opinions, weakly held.\"
Templeton,
We don\'t get to have 1,000 or 10,000 derby starters for a trainer. Sure, would be great to get huge sample sizes.
But you know what, 46 Derby starters for 1 trainer is a VERY BIG SAMPLE size when it comes to trainers of Kentucky Derby starters. How many trainers have had more starters than Pletcher? More starters with top figures off of winning grade 1 preps?
How many times does Pletcher have to \"crap the bed\" on Derby day to get your attention? 200 starters over 100 years?
We live in the age of over-analysis. Until proven otherwise, put a line through the Pletcher starters, put a line through the Dubai starters (which doesn\'t help much).
Let\'s see patterns, two year old foundations, paired top or near tops heading into the Derby, horses who still have reasonable logical progression to make off of their 2 year old tops, nice spacing into the Derby without a huge jump up and no big negative number in their last prep. Let\'s see those things for all horses not trained by the WORST DERBY TRAINER of the last 100 years.
Jim
Jimbo-- the first sentence of the last paragraph qualifies as a mini Derby seminar.
Hi Jim,
You mention, \" . . . 46 Derby starters for 1 trainer is a VERY BIG SAMPLE size when it comes to trainers of Kentucky Derby starters.\" And of course I agree with you - within the frame of reference \'trainers of Kentucky Derby starters,\' 46 is a lot! What I\'m saying is, for any meaningful statistical analysis, 46 is peanuts! Of course, 46 is all we have, so we\'re cursed with it, since that\'s the subject we\'re studying.
I think you may have given up on my post before the end, where I said \" . . . by all means look for trends, but don\'t marry yourself to them because you can\'t know yet what weight they should be attributed, if any - \"Strong opinions, weakly held.\"
IOW, as it applies to this year, we might say \"While we would probably all agree that Pletcher has been a huge bust in the Derby, if Always Dreaming gets into the gate at 25/1, you may think about betting him!\"
Especially since there hasn\'t been a clear pattern for the winner in recent years. Nyquist held to form, but Whitmore didn\'t. Chrome ran the number he always ran. Orb paired his big negative number, Big Brown did that one better. Animal Kingdom\'s pattern was similar to Twice the Appeal. Super Saver moved forward off the paired top, but Dublin didn\'t. Etc.
Last year\'s Derby/Oaks seminar included some stats about Pletcher. Sample was small, but his horses coming from Florida had yet to pair their top in the Derby. Destin did not change that. Those coming from elsewhere did better.
Jimbo, I went against the grain this year with a small Derby future.
TAP has admittedly screwed the pooch as a Derby trainer. The statistics
presented by you and others confirm this.
Possibly as big a disappointment as far as the Derby is concerned is America\'s
leading sire, Tapit.
According to a DRF supplement published on January 21, Tapit, who stands for
300K, sired runners with earnings of more than $19 million, $7 million more
than the second stallion on the list, Curlin. Tapit was fourth leading sire in
terms of 2YOs. Tapit was fifth leading turf sire.
Tapit has underachieved as a sire of Derby runners. A quick review of the TG
archives reveals that Tapit has sired seven Derby starters: Hansen (2012)
finished 9th)(TG 63); Normandy Invasion (2013)
(4th)(11); Tapiture (2014)(15th)(63); Frosted (2015)(4th)
(-1); Mohaymen (2016)(4th)(21); Lani (2016)(5th)(33); and
Creator (2016)(13th)(83).
To report fairly, Tapit has sired the winners of two of the last three Belmont Stakes.
So, taking a page from George Costanza, who once went on a wonderful run by
saying and doing the opposite of what he usually would, I plunked down a small
future wager on Tapwrit, sired by an underachieving Derby sire and trained by
an underachieving Derby trainer. The odds were a most unpalatable 10-1.
The point might be that when you run young colts at a distance they mostly have
not covered before, against the largest field they have or will ever again
face, some aberrations are to be expected.
I do not have a strong positive Derby opinion. The intriguing colts are
McCraken (sp?) who has missed some training for a conditioner who has done well
lately but most of whose Derby experience is as an assistant, and Classic
Empire, who marches to the beat of his own drummer.
I still stand by TAP\'s Master Plan as a Belmont factor, if he can rebound from
his Dubai travels. His record is similar to 2016 winner Creator in that MP was
never tried at a sprint distance, usually indicative that the connections felt
early on that longer distances would be where the colt would excel.
From everything I have read about the Derby, I have one question---did California fall into the Pacific?
Good Luck,
Joe B
That\'ll be the day I go back to Annandale.
(sorry, couldn\'t resist)
Perhaps JB, yet aside from 2yo foundation and spacing the rest of Jimbo\'s rant is, his usual prattle. Profitability, the first Saturday in May, often is not picking the winner, but playing a horse, at odds, that fits in the frame.
Runnerups, this race can be/often are, big potatoes on the board.
Data points including a colt putting on weight coming in, having acceptable class/pedigree and working well, especially at Churchill will certainly outperform Jimbo\'s spin significantly. bbb
Al Caught Up Wrote:
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> That\'ll be the day I go back to Annandale.
>
This is one of those rare times when I wish this board had a \"like\" function. However, I doubt it would have the capacity to handle a \"dislike\" function.
bellsbendboy Wrote:
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> Perhaps JB, yet aside from 2yo foundation and
> spacing the rest of Jimbo\'s rant is, his usual
> prattle. Profitability, the first Saturday in
> May, often is not picking the winner, but playing
> a horse, at odds, that fits in the frame.
>
> Runnerups, this race can be/often are, big
> potatoes on the board.
>
> Data points including a colt putting on weight
> coming in, having acceptable class/pedigree and
> working well, especially at Churchill will
> certainly outperform Jimbo\'s spin significantly.
> bbb
And this is one of those moments I wish the board had the capacity for posting pics or gifs, because I would throw in one of a dour looking guy saying, in a deep baritone, \"Go ooooon,\" where the \"on\" sounds like it\'s about six syllables long.
There are many reasons I enjoy posts by Richiebee. Usually either his cleverness or humor are the stars.
Today we have a post that suggests he may be an investigative reporter for the N.Y. Times and he might be. I have been thinking along those lines myself. It could be my nature or it could the new phenomena known as \"active measures\" and how easily the public can be mislead that peaks my curiosity. In the end it is a search for the truth.
#1 Is it legitimate, rational and reasonable to have had positive expectations for TAP runners in previous years.
a. If yes, why? what actual objective facts correlate to KD success.
b. Consider Templeton Peck\'s point of statistical sample size to prove cause and effect.
#2 Are the results due to something TAP does or doesn\'t do?.
a. Something about TAP\'s program that is incompatible with Kentucky Derby.
b. Something about the program of successful KD trainers incompatible with TAP?
c. Is there a some payoff (related to the results to date) that is below the radar.
Here is the problem, the mystery if you will. Is it the expectation that TAP runners should fare well in Kentucky that is faulty or is it TAP\'s real world preparation and program that is the disconnect.
I already feel a tug and want to forecast a TAP win in 2017 and don\'t even know why?
Pretty big number jump for Always Dreaming.
Richiebee
Wilkes runs the operation but the two time Derby winner is present.
From what I\'ve read and heard they\'re still a team.
Nafzger is now in the background but he\'s around to lean on.
Just to add to the general silliness here ... you know the old Red Smith line about how to get to Saratoga (150 miles north on the Thruway, left on Union Avenue and go back 100 years). Here\'s how you get to Annandale. 75 miles north on the Thruway, cross the Kingston-Rhinecliff Bridge, left on River Road and go back 50 years.
Good to see you\'re back, Bob.
Thanks, JB. I was pretty far gone for a while. Doing much better now (to Frank and Richie and Rocky and Sean and TC and the rest of the Spa crew, I was in the hospital for two weeks with a \"fever of unknown origin\" that really laid me out for a total of about six weeks). Good luck in the Derby preps, all!
BBB,
As per norm, u remain clueless and full of assertions.
Yes, \"class\" is a much more important factor than having paired tops or a slightly forward moving line as opposed to big jump up.
If I was half as smart as you think you are, I would be beating this game regularly. And if I was only twice as smart as you actually are, I would be doing much worse than I am now........
Good luck to you. You VERY MUCH need it.
Jim
Big:
Good point. I seem to remember reading that Carl Nafzger and his wife ran the shed while Wilkes vacationed in Australia this winter. Maybe Mrs. Genter is looking on from above...
That\'s good stuff. There has always been something shaky about Pletcher horses coming out of Florida. A couple of potential Favs (Eskendreya and Uncle Mo) never made it to the gate but they Prepped in Wood also. So did Gemologist who may have been last in the Derby. See the Melynk horse(Graeme Hall) and the Slop horse (Keyed Entry) of his who was 2nd to Baffert in Wood. I mean seriously this guy has run last in the Derby like 3 times as much as he has won. You keep betting against him until he proves that is a bad angle. The DUE THEORY WILL CRUSH YOU
Good to see some life back on the board.
We\'re a week or two from the crazies coming out. Watch.
I still contend that Danza ran much better than many gave credit, or remember.
Bob
Glad to see you are feeling better.
I noticed your column was missing a couple of weeks.
I do enjoy your thoughts.
See you this summer
Bob:
Two weeks at Rood and Riddle. I was climbing the walls after two DAYS. Glad nobody
called me to take your place in the hoop game. Hope all is well now.
Bob ..... sorry to hear of your temporary setback, but very glad to know that you\'re back in the saddle. The sport needs your insight and literary flair.
some last quick thanks on this personal stuff (sorry to those looking for \'capping content) to all the Spa-TGenerates who reached out here or in PMs or emails. Sean and Roger too kind, and I\'m blaming all of my subpar efforts for the last year on the mystery virus. Hoping they get and stay better soon. Richie, Rood & Riddle would have been much preferable owing to the higher quality of roommates (I batted .200) and that nice pool.
You excited?
It\'s beginning to look like Pletcher/Dubai horse could be a legit 1-2-bet! ;)
In regard to the Dubai horses, I\'m not sure we\'ve seen one that looks as good as this one. Thunder Snow has everything you want in a pattern heading into the derby... He\'s a little slow but no more so than Nyquist or Gun Runner last year under similar circumstances.
Now maybe there\'s something intrinsic about the Dubai ship that he\'s up against but looking at past Dubai derby shippers, that doesn\'t appear to be the case.
If he trains well and gets lasix, he may get a serious look.