Heard Gun has a fever and may scratch. Beware both ways because I\'m not standing in his stall and it could be here say. And then again....
Tough to say this was a valid report but it came from a reliable source. One thing that was certain was Gun totally bounced and was the proverbial \"failed to menace\". That last race and number could have him as tough read come Derby Day ie-fast enough to win or totally fried...
Silver.
The horse ran. No reason to run a horse with a foot issue who already has derby points. Means the report was wrong
As for tough read going forward. I doubt it. Who was the last horse to win the derby off a non-effort. Thunder gulch off an \"0-2-x\".
Can\'t bet this horse in the derby.
Jimbo-- Without looking my guess is Monarchos, but it wasn\'t as big a bounce a this. And if Caton was right about him having lost weight going into this, running back won\'t help.
We\'re looking at doing a seminar for next weekend, interesting stuff ahead.
Not sure I\'d put this down as a non-effort. Time was very fast. Four of the top five at the half finished in the top five. The other horse was Gunny, who was last at the half. The race will get a good number, given Salty\'s performance earlier.
So we have Gunny running what looks like the \'2\' in 0-2-X, and Always Dreaming running, what, a nine point new top?
Edit: It will be interesting to see the day\'s numbers, given the MSW went so much faster than some decent horses in the Sir Shackleton.
I would be pretty surprised if Gun didn\'t bounce a good deal more than 2 points.
AJ,
If TGJB gives Gunnevara a 2 point backward move, he will be out of business soon.
HE got beat 7 lengths at equal weights by a horse who paired 9\'s his last two races. (if you want to forget about or discount the 9\'s as not accurate or not an accurate reflection of the winner\'s talent, the second place horse has about as steady a line as can be with consecutive 4\'s. And he beat Gunnevara by 1.5 lengths.
The bidding starts at a 6 or 7 point backward move by Gunnevara. Forget about 2 points.
TGJB,
I thought of Monarchos, but his race against Congaree was at least an effort. A 3 point backward move and much more of a \"prep\" type race. I would equate it with the \"prep/backward move\" that STreet Sense ran in the Blue Grass. Gunnevara didn\'t run a step. This was the worst/slowest Florida Derby field in years and he was VERY LUCKY to get up for a piss poor 3rd.
Stick a fork in him.
Jim
Jimbo?
You think Gunny was cranked up today?
Johnny,
I posted before the race in a thread \"Must bet against Gunnevara\" that anybody who knows how to read a sheet and understands this game HAD to bet against the colt today.
Didn\'t need the race to get to the Derby. Off a 6 point top. LAst race had a huge pace edge would he wouldn\'t get today. And would be about 4/5.
He was even money. So I guess I was wrong about that.
So, no he wasn\'t cranked.
But today\'s race looked more than \"not cranked\". IT was bounce. Bad bounce. Even read what the chartcaller said, sluggish at the half or thereabouts.
Monarchos and Street Sense were \"not cranked\".
Today was an over the top horse.
Those kind are horrible derby bets.
Jim
Does this mean Always Dreaming is a bounce come Derby Day?
Thanks.
He obviously went back more than two points - but probably back to his old top. I\'d thought that the 0-2-X pattern was not a literal two point regression, but a modest backward move off of a big figure, followed by a blowup. And how big of a move back this was depends on how confident JB is in the neg 2, which he wasn\'t sold on a couple of weeks back.
And speaking of the place horse, the equipment change is reason to move forward - and he was on a speed favoring track which flatters his style.
The harder question is what to do with the winner, whose previous races were glorified workouts, and then this. (But he is a Pletcher, so ....)
Eh,
Always Dreamin is a bet against because TAP, aka the most over-rated trainer in this game, has a very easy to read resume with Derby horses. His 3 year olds fire a big shot in their last derby prep, almost all of them. And after they do, they run despicable on Derby day, except for Super Saver, who has been covered enough on this board.
I wouldn\'t spend 30 seconds looking at Always Dreamin\'s TG line going into the DErby. Paired 9\'s going into today were hard to believe/accept. And whatever he gets now will be a huge move up.
The problem with tossing AD on DErby day is that it is no longer a secret that TAP sucks in the Derby. Last year, his two horses were arguably overlays.
Jim
AJ,
Sorry, but think you are wrong again, although you get a mulligan because all of the \"experts\" on TV called it \"speed favoring\" all day long too.
There is a difference between a very fast track and a speed favoring track.
6 dirt races.
1 race wire to wire
2 races won by stalkers
3 races won by horses coming from way back.
No speed track. Fast track, but pretty fair.
In the 3 races won by horses from way back it wasn\'t just the winners that came from the back, but many of the top finishers.
if you want to see a speed favoring track, download some results from the Aqueduct inner this winter. Final times and fractions were slow, but winners from the rail and longshots who had no shot holding till late in the stretch.
Those are speed favoring track traits. Not fast fractions.
Jim
Agree the more Pletcher horses in the starting gate the more tosses.
Tapwrit is still on the fence.
If your job entails talking about racing for a living and you thought today\'s GP strip was speed favoring, you should lose your job. Period. Dont think the derby winner ran today.....but Ive been saying that, seemingly, every Saturday now, so who knows
I feel like I can\'t make this mistake yet again this year, I swore off ever betting a pletcher in the derby after last year...but I was admittedly impressed today. Hopefully next week brings some form of clarity but the way this year has gone so far, it\'s not likely.
As to the favorite today, I thought Gunny looked thin & washed out on the track. He wasn\'t winning today even if his camp had attempted to..
How confident did Johnny V look/act at the top of the stretch today? Did he even go to the whip once? If he did I didn\'t see it. That was pretty telling all things considered.
FWIW I tossed Gun completely and paid for it in exotics (I played the 4/1/2,8,10) but from were I\'m sitting today, I\'ll be doing it again next time out..
What happens when you don\'t feel well and decide to go work out to \"sweat it out\". Quite possibly you end up sicker! I\'m about 90% sure of this but I believe Gunnys Camp had a string of tables 50 feet long on the left side if Ten Palms Room Holy Bull Day. Assuming the same crew was to be present for Florida Derby Day people make decisions that other right minded people in the Biz wouldn\'t. Perhaps similar to when Jimmy Jerkins scratched Quality Road before the Derby and found him being moved to someone else\'s barn. People do dumb things. The same network of Intel that communicated Classic Empire wouldn\'t train is what delivered this, while the other \"Fake News\" reported they discovered a foot abscess as the excuse for the poor effort after the race. And that was considered to he 100% verified truth because well, someone wrote or blogged it...
I was there...It was a table of 82 (longest table I\'ve ever seen)...As the day went on it became more difficult (in the area where they were) to wagering or even get around...My guess? Well over 200
Derby winner is running next Saturday....and probably on the west coast.
Good Luck,
Joe B
Always Dreaming closes in the future pool today at $6.10-1 behind only McCracken at $5.90-1. I saw the odds mid-afternoon but didn\'t recall this one being single digit odds.
The total amount bet on him was $33,859.75 and the total pool was $294k+. (Now at Fairmount Park I can\'t bet $.25 increments to win so I\'m still trying to figure that out.) Regardless this pool is nothing compared to Derby Day.....but will AD be higher or lower than $6.10-1 on Derby Day? Is this a little bit of recency effect? Or was this someone who took a big swing believing they had information most didn\'t with a figure from yesterday? If you are curious, the exacta pool reflects him as the clear second choice in almost every instance also.
With 4 major preps still remaining, 6-1 seems awfully low for a horse today that will likely be 10-1 Derby Day as jimbo is completely right.....Pletcher horses are very cold in the Derby win pool on Derby Day last few years.
It is getting serious now.....I\'ll be at the Bluegrass next Saturday and Ark Derby in two weeks. Anyone that will be at either one, if you want to talk horses and/or have a beer, send me a pm.
He was already down to single digits last night (7 or 8-1). I think it is a recency effect, plus a lot of the talking heads touting him. Surprising to me. The Beyer isn\'t that fast. I\'m awful at guessing TG numbers in Florida, but I\'d guess this was higher than zero.
On the flip side, who else would they bet? The next four in the betting were Gunnevera, Classic Empire, Tapwrit, and Malagacy.
Jimbo,
I agree with what you are saying. The track wasn\'t really speed biased. But do you think the Florida Derby had a slow early pace?
Pat