First thought weak field, Gunny getting the outside post with his come from behind style may not be as much of an issue.
Going to be warm here Saturday.
Ha entry seen the overall Card yet but I did notice that Pletcher and Brown sent almost nothing to FG. And it\'s a fairly rich Card.
Liked Battalion Runner here but since he is likely to scratch for SA Derby don\'t like this race at all now.
Why ship when you can stay home and run in 5-7 horse fields.
Actually looking like the Wood for BR.
I sure don\'t understand why you ship when you have a weak field GR1 in your own backyard.
Excellent point. Was a little disappointed with some of the field sizes. Keeneland is coming get also and there are some bigger rages there than these $100,000 Stakes on Saturday
A lot of these horses have common ownership as in St Elias is same as Vialo Racing and Brooklyn Boys is MEB, so they are running against themselves. Divide and conquer I guess, and get to the KY Derby any way possible!!
My first thought was also... seems a week field. The defection of Battalion Runner supports that view.
But the issue is? a logical strategy to make some money.
Scenario A
#11 Gunnevera is hard to fault. If he flops then the tote will produce some attractive $\'s. That is a big if. Has his campaign worn him down? His running style and pilot make a bad trip a bad bet. Other than a collapse the two chances would seem to be: a) he can\'t catch #1 State of Honor or #10 Three Rules or b) #4 Always Dreaming out kicks him late.
So buying into this perspective suggests win bets on #1 & #10.
and/or
While I\'m not yet sold on #4 Always Dreaming (the 4/1 m/l seems short & his last race had such a slow pace). Grudgingly either put him on top of some verticals with the 1,10,11 or toss him - still contemplating c/b a post time decision.
Scenario B
Another possibility is a long shot dark horse jumps up and either wins or delivers a pumped up vertical. Stab options from this perspective seem to be keep one or the other of the top two favorites out of the tri or super and get a double digit horse in. Which? There are several candidates. I\'m passing on the Sky Mesa & Adios Charlie colts. Three entrants from Harlan Holiday each of which seem to be disappointments to their connection\'s investment to date yet sent out by competent trainers with capable jockeys. My view is the most under the radar choice is #2 Talk Logistics @ m/l 30/1 I\'m imagining Plesa drew a line through his last or may have liked it (knowing something that I don\'t).
Scenarion Simple
Single Gunne in horizontals.
Just a Thursday night perspective with plenty of time to second guess myself. Certainly would welcome some kibitzing or even better some insight.
Not sure how \"insightful\" this will be, but happy to share. As I previously mentioned, the TAP entries have common ownership and were BIG $$ purchases. However they were not purchased by TAP Bloodstock but by St Elias/Brooklyn Boys et al. To the best of my recollection they have had little success in terms of ROI. Always Dreaming hung like a NY Bred rat at Saratoga while with Schettino. He\'s gonna take money because of the connections but I\'m happy to let him beat me. State of Honor may sit a perfect trip from the 1 and may relax enough (blinks off) on a speed favoring track (assumption) to steal it. As for Gunnevera getting a bad trip, I\'ll trust that pilot today and everyday. Looks like some competition for P6 $$$.
Also - for those visiting the Spa this summer, I recently went to the new Rivers Casino. Whoever thought that a casino would help that area should face a firing squad. What a dump and a hassle to get there. If you have a woody for live Black Jack/Roulette/Craps you might be able to get to Turning Stone or Mohegan just as fast. Oh and the man is watching closely as there is only one way in and out. Be careful!
Best of luck all, looking forward to the next 5 weeks!
Not sure the race is betable (the whole card is a big disappointment compared to FOY day). But I don\'t think Gunny is fully cranked for this one. Last two works have been slow, which is probably good for his chances in May (given the monster fig), but not for this race.
Sano is the big question mark. The way he\'s handled Hy Riverside has been very strange. He may have ruined a talented horse by running him three straight weeks in February. Also have to question his judgment in going back to Jesus Rios for the Futurity last fall - after the switch to a top jock got Gunny a G2 win.
Always Dreaming probably looks better on TG than other figs. Beyer gave him a 71 in his last, which is ridiculous. But he isn\'t sneaking up on anyone as the second choice. Three Rules may hang on, but wouldn\'t be surprised to see a bounce out of him as well after that huge effort.
Maybe the play is a jump up from one of the lightly raced horses to the inside.
Agree the card as a whole is a disappointment. Rather see less races more quality.
Gunny can bounce and still win.
AD looks slow on all figures. And he outworks all Pletcher\'s 3yos. We will see.
The puzzle of the race seems to have been exposed by Jerry. But what to make of the works? I suppose the trainer switch @ SAR is also indicative of ???
Could it be the trainers are trying to teach the horse to run faster early. ala Seabiscuit vs War Admiral (anybody hearing sirens or bells). Or do the good works signal condition and readiness. I would have liked a good 5F in the w/o\'s.
PBD is the slow training track if memory serves me correctly?
I suppose an outfit like the Brooklyn Boys will influence the tote and actually that won\'t help me a a bit getting off this fence. Feeling a little more confident using him on top. C/B he negates the speed horses and makes it a two horse race?
Suddenly the Florida Derby is an interesting race and the defection of Battalion Runner (Pletcher) makes some sense.
Don\'t you have to play Gunnevera to bounce? A decade ago, TG published some stats about the next effort for 3yos who ran a neg 1 or better before July 1: sample size 31 (2000-2006); no new tops; 9.7% pair; 25.8% off; 64.5% X.
Gunny in the Holy Bull was pinched on the rail.
Could it be said that if he was not pinched he runs a number close to IWC which is a 0.
So if he would of gotten a 0 in the Holy Bull was the move forward in the FOY really not that big?
Is this logical thinking?
Test.
Sort of surprised to read from a few folks on this thread who are board regulars, talking about Gunnevara in a positive light.
Really? LEt\'s see, he gets an EXTREMELY favorable pace set up his last race, which he doesn\'t figure to get today, he comes into this race off a 5 point top with this the race BEFORE the Derby, where he needs to peak, and \"oh by the way\", let\'s give him post 11, which at this distance is somewhere around 1% win rate. Oh yes, and you are going to get 4/5 on the horse, best case.
Geez. I know there are almost no \"have to\" rules in betting horses, but this horse has to be tossed for any of those reasons.
The problem is who to play in the race.
First Dreamin has a hard to believe series of figs on TG. I get his last figure, but two back seems incredibly slow. Figures aside for a second, Pletcher scratches Battalion runner, who seemingly would have been a solid second choice, to let this guy run. And as TGJB points out, the horse is working like a monster when paired with any of TAPs other runners. 4-1 second choice on the ML a terrible value play, but I will use horizontally because Gunnevara won\'t be on any of my tickets.
I guess I like State of Honor best. seems to be flatlining on his pattern, but now sheds blinkers and if Gunnevara runs poorly, which I expect, this guy just pairing up from the rail may be enough. Very shaky at the distance, but as much as I hate Frenchie the jockey, one thing he is good at is conserving energy for a horse and maybe he trips out.
I will guess that some TG users will like Three Rules off his string of figures. And I can\'t blame them. But I think he is a sprinter and as much as I doubt the distance a bit for State of Honor, I double doubt the distance for this guy. Will be a defensive multi-race use.
Talk Logistics, at 30-1 on the ML, with an inside post, is a must-use for me. HE is one point slower than the rail horse, lightly raced enough to improve. And the price will be huge. Wish it was somebody besides Bravo, but the price compensates.
Will be looking for Gunnevara to be nowhere, with STate of Honor, Talk Logistics and First Dreamin my main uses, with a \"B\" on Three Rules.
Good luck.
Jim
fwiw my workout report has battalion runner working out a lot better than AD.
West Point Stables also bought into AD a few weeks ago so that certainly is going to depress his odds even more. Those that fancy him can have him because he\'s not for me--he feels like a Zulu 2.0.
It\'s hard to completely trust Gunnevera especially at 6/5 because he not only doesn\'t need these points to make the Derby field but also has a potential bounce and poor post to overcome. Bouncing to the point he\'s off the board would be very surprising to me at least because his prior two regressions were only by about 2 points each time(and that includes when he hit a 6 point new top at 2YO at SAR). He could bounce by 5-6 points and still be in the mix due to the number of duds in here.
It doesn\'t hurt either that Gunnevera is accustomed to carrying the 122lb of today\'s race while he\'s had to give weight to much of the field in his past several races.
While I don\'t love Gunnevera in the FL Derby, there\'s little else to chose from in the field and the horse is pretty darn serious every time Castellano is on his back. Probably going to try some tris and supers using 1,2,10 up and down with 11. The one could end up being a WPS bet for me at his ML because he just kind of hangs around enough to maybe pull a Shackleford.
Battalion Runner should have perhaps gone ahead and run here since the other TAP ain\'t winning and BR would have a real tough time not finishing 1st or 2nd.
Like Guest Suite and his improving figs quite a bit in the LA Derby. He too is used to today\'s weight with two wins under 122lb while Girvin and Hero got 4lbs from him last out.
Minolan,
Not all forward moves are the same. The 6 point new top last year was during august of his 2 year old season. Horses jump all the time that early in their development.
This is a 5 point new top, to a negative 2 and change. How many 3 year olds run negative 2 in February and don\'t regress? Smarty Jones? This guy ain\'t Smarty Jones, at least you can\'t bet him like he is.
As for how far he bounces, if he bounces, there is never a limit. You won\'t get more factors going against an odds on favorite then you get going against Gunnevara.
Five of last 11 winners came out of posts 2-4.
I\'m thinking State of Honor goes off less than his 8-1 ML. Wheels getting wobbly on that wagon.
Bravo\'s horse good value. A Majesto-like clean inside trip can get him in the number.
Good Luck,
Joe B
I have watched both AD and BR\'s last 3 workouts. AD, in my opinion is working really really well. Much more impressive than BR.
Battalion\'s last workout was much improved over his previous couple which were fair.
Numbers, and pace figures on AD are incredibly slow. If he was losing posting those numbers there would be no discussion. But he is winning, and winning so easily while setting ridiculously slow fractions. Hard to post a decent number with pace and caliber of horses he has been facing.
Can he run well late after running an honest pace early? We will see today.
I do not think there is going to be much value here either. 7/2-3/1.
That being said, I am playing AD. His workouts are just too good to dismiss. I know I am not going to make a living with moves like this but I am going with my gut here.
Did you notice anything that would confirm the report that AD was rank in his last two works?
I just watched the last two w/o videos from the xb site and and that horse looked hard to handle for the first 2F. Tossing and dipping his head fighting the rider.
I am no expert or even a lay person in reading w/o\'s but the impression I got was the horse was in charge and the rider did nothing to encourage him. Further looks as if it may be difficult to keep this one out of the lead.
What a contradiction c/b he must lead and then throttles back but geez those are fast works @ PBD and while a short distance he did not really break off either. I\'d say he does impress.
Now carrying that short speed for a mile and 1/8 like TGJB says \"we shall see\" He also runs with his head a little low.
I agree he was tossing his head and throwing it about. But once engaged he was all business. Looked a bit headstrong as well. but my overall impression was that while looking like he wanted to do more early it did not affect how he finished up, and his gallop out was terrific.
I am not trying to tell anyone to play him, but I think this one could be a real racehorse.