For those of you serious students of the game, the cat is finally out of the bag on this angle especially with twitter blowing up about today\'s Sunland Park Derby. It may still be useful moving ahead though. I\'ve seen little \"movement\" in the odds of any angle I\'ve ever posted on the board so I have no reservations about sharing what many of you may already know.
For several months now dating back to the fall, I\'ve told friends (including several on the board by text/email) that Calumet Farm has horses that are \"running.\" They had several two year olds and now three year olds that are chasing the stakes races. Their horses have been solid wagers this year but today they scored a solid one....or someone did.
These broad assertions would be attacked with vigor by the crowd here but I have the stats to back it up. Calumet has quickly made it back on the map in the past year or so and this year they are doing quite well......
YEAR, RANK, STARTS, W/P/S, Win%, Earnings
2017: 3. 120 21 20 10 18% $1.9 million (less than 3 months)
2016: 20. 395 48 39 47 12% $2.5 million
2015: 31. 324 41 25 35 13% $2.1 million
2014: 112. 203 14 25 22 7% 1.02 million
2013: 29. 175 9 16 16 5% 2.2 million (Won Preakness with Oxbow)
2012: NONE (Oxbow ran as a 2yo for Kelly\'s Bluegrass Hall before he acquired Calumet).
The Preakness in 2013 was Calumet\'s first Triple Crown race win since 1968. They are back on track to get back to the Triple Crown races and Henceforth, it shall be no surprise when you see success with trainers such as Pletcher, Desormeaux, McLaughlin, Asmussen, Arnold, and Lukas.
A few horses of note you may recognize: Sonic Mule, Wild Shot, Sonneteer (112-1 2nd place finisher in the Rebel), Horse Fly, True Timber, and of course today: Hence. As Twitter noted, his odds went from 27-1 to 10-1 in the final moments. Others are on to their horses and someone certainly was on this one so I\'m not revealing anything earth shattering here if you have been paying attention. But if you haven\'t, you might want to start.
One example: Lukas has won 7 races at Oaklawn this meet. Five of them have been for Calumet. It would be interesting to note if the TG figs of these five have shown improvement that exceeds the other horses in Lukas\' barn during this time.
The board has slowed down obviously since twitter with its insta-analysis has taken off and made everyone an insta-expert as FrankD. noted but I never see any meaningful insight on there as I do on here when people post. Hoping to see more as Triple Crown season gets very serious now. (Like how good was Bin Suroor first time N/A and first time lasix when he was training US horses esp at Saratoga? Do I recall like 35 to 40 percent???) If anyone has those stats, please pm them to me as I\'m very curious if he was as unbelievable as I recall.
I don\'t have any stats for Bin Suroor in USA, but I do have stats for the last 3 seasons he\'s had in Dubai if you\'re interested (Meydan + Jebel Ali, he doesn\'t run much at Jebel Ali though, if ever). No one else is even close in Dubai, percentage wise. I\'m more than happy to share them, maybe someone could help me read into them as well.
(this is by combining the last 3 seasons, and ROI is calculated by using SP)
Overall Win % = 26,1 % (ROI = 131,5 %) - sample size = 165
He\'s generally doing very good of layoff\'s (these have all decent sample sizes):
Last race 2-5 weeks = 26,2 % (ROI = 132,5 %)
Last race 6-12 weeks = 27,3 % (ROI = 129,4 %)
Last race more than 12 weeks = 28,9 % (ROI = 141,4 %)
--> a comment on that last one: they only race half the year in Dubai and the carnival doesn\'t begin until January, so the quality of racing is generally lower before Christmas. Also, these stats doesn\'t take into consideration that many of these horses runs abroad in between the seasons in Dubai, so it might not always be an actual 12 weeks+-layoff, it\'s only counting days between racing in Dubai.
A very interesting stat though when one is thinking in terms of the triple crown-races, where the spacing is short, is this one:
Last race under 2 weeks = 0 %, from only 5 starts! I wouldn\'t read too much into the percentage because the sample size is so small, and it would probably look a bit better if the stats was 14 days or less (racedays for Meydan is usually Thursdays so it\'s more common to see him run a horse with exactly 2 weeks layoff). However I do think it\'s interesting that he seems to HATE to run a horse back on short rest, and I believe that is something one should keep in mind if they ever do decide to go for the triple crown (of course they must first have the right horse to try to do it with).
3yo-stat: win % = 33,3 % from 30 starts (ROI = 80 %). 86,7 % in the money!
Distance stats:
Middle distances (6,5f - 9,2f): 27 % wins from 74 starts (ROI = 91,7 %)
Long distances (9,2 furlongs +): 25,6 % wins from 86 starts (ROI = 170,3 %)
Surface stats:
Dirt: 18,5 % (ROI = 108,5 %), from 65 starts
Turf: 31 % ! (ROI = 147,2 %), from 100 starts
Last 90 days: 25 % wins (ROI = 119,3 %), from 56 starts, so he has been even hotter before (though he\'s very consistent).
My apologizes if these stats are already included in the sheets one buy on here, but it has always been my impression that the stats one gets in the form is only from races being raced in America, and if so these might perhaps be a handy supplement for someone (all though they doesn\'t provide the amount of detail that you get when you\'re buying products from Thoro-Graph!).
Well, since Fairmont1 mentioned it Calument has a number of horses entered this week, most notably on Saturday:
Louisiana Derby – Patch. Pletcher trained, broke maiden in second start at one mile on the dirt, makes stakes debut.
Fair Grounds Oaks – Vexatious. Drysdale trained, broke maiden in second start at one mile on the dirt, makes stakes debut after running third in allowance race against colts.
For what it\'s worth, my expected odds on Hence (based on DD probables from the favorite in Race 8) were only 16-1. His sheet looks playable; never gone back with small forward move in last. I didn\'t think he would want the 9 furlongs.