To start with I\'ll make a conditional assertion. Which is the UAE Derby will be the most significant KD prep of 2017, or of this week, or not depending on:
a: If two possibly three horses make the trip to Kentucky. Epicaris is already qualified I believe. Adirato is no slouch (IMO) and lightly raced and will be competitive @ a good price.
b. O\'Brien Lancaster Bomber TG 7 has already beaten most of what the US could offer up albeit on turf in the BC (his VISA c/b still valid) and Spirit of Valor seemingly with dirt potential. If either of these two come a visiting well now!
Three tourists from the group above would add a lot of interest to the storyline of the 2017 \"Run For The Roses.\" Even Thunder Snow from Godolphin might ship if he runs well.
c: Master Plan an $850K OBS purchase and FL winner (Pletcher), Vettori Kin who I believe is technically a 4 y/o in Norte Americano (McPeek) looking for some cash, there is a $2M purse the former cash and derby points.
d: The race is 1+3/16m and contending at that distance some consider more meaningful than a shorter distance.
e: I hope making numbers for a race like this is easier than I imagine. Supposing the presence of Master Plan and a couple other that have run in the US should help some.
The Contenders?
1 The Spiral
Sure to draw a field of ?\'s some of which c/b Animal Kingdom reincarnated but probably not. Truly one of the odder preps run each year. A difficult race to get very excited about for any but true aficionados. However, I am supportive of the TV series getting renewed for a second season.
2. The Mine That Bird (Sunland) Derby and I\'ll be the first to say produced a truly exciting Derby winner along with a real life story worthy of a movie script. This years edition looks interesting with big name trainers coming to town. I like this race because they invariable run fast early and crawl home late. Like some of my Friday nights of years past! The winner if he goes on to Kentucky is usually a favorite of the long shot loonies. Interesting race but locale lacks the skyscrapers of Dubai.
While the Florida Derby, The Wood, The Santa Anita Derby, The Louisianan and Arkansas Derbies are all coming up soon with each tossing in one possibly two Derby contenders this week Dubai is the centerpiece. I better begin my training now in order to get up early enough.
So from today\'s perspective the UAE Derby looks the most significant prep this year, or week.
Recently Firing Line used the Sunland derby as a prep and ran very well in defeat. (If he switches leads maybe no triple crown winner?)
I liked everything about Lancaster Bomber in the BC last fall, he would certainly be an interesting entry. Usually by this time of the year I at least \"like\" a horse or two, but so far no one\'s blown me away at all.
Offshore odds on UAE Derby
Thunder Snow 2.2-1
Epicharis 5.8-1
Master Plan 6.4-1
Lancaster Bomber 8-1
Fawree 9.5-1
For me, the most interesting thing about the Spiral is who decided not to run. It\'s Your Nickel looked great winning the Battaglia, and would be a big favorite over this field. His connections decided to pass up a sure-fire Derby entry to go to the Bluegrass against MUCH tougher company.
That\'s a confident move. Horse fired a nice bullet at Keeneland. As a Dialed In, he should stay. Two wins on dirt. A big price at the Wynn . . . .
Cosmo Charlie, 20/1 in England, appears to me to be the value proposition. Bombs away!
Face Man!
I see you value the fact that Cosmo Charlie has won a race at the distance, at the track and both in his last race early this month. A 20/1 price seems attractive evidently the bloodlines money is uncertain of Stay Thirsty. Seems I remember the Dam Lake Como ran at least one strong race?
I find it interesting that many of the contestants are stretching out from 7F or a 1M. While any one of this \"stretch out group\" can relish the additional distance. I like the fact that Epicharis started out his career @ 1+1/8m winning and in his last shortening up to 1 mile yet was able to run down a game Adirato who is just outside Cosmo and probably heads for the front early. I say 5/1 on, arguably the most accomplished horse, isn\'t so bad.
It is apparent to me that there are several interesting colts in the field and looks to be a race in which getting a good price on a promising prospect will be easy. ...and vertical payoffs could get really sweet. I\'m investing in some exactas using Epicharis as my key w/ Cosmo, Thunder Snow & Spirit of Valor & Master Plan.
Good Luck I\'d love to run 2nd to Cosmo. Is he owned by a Putin stooge?