Someone want to take a stab at handicapping this one? I\'ve no idea.
Only 3 of the 11 horses come in off of a win. One broke their maiden, the other hasn\'t been longer than 6.5 furlongs, and Royal Mo, who in his last faced a place horse who is still a maiden. His figs coming in, though showing steady improvement, don\'t exactly scream unique talent.
The fastest fig is Malagacy, the aforementioned sprinter.
American Anthem has a decent last # routing, but in the slop. At 2--1?
Untrapped and Petrov are both solid, but have a serious case of the 2nds - the last three races for both of them.
Lookin at Lee should get the pace set up, but can a horse that finished 8 lengths back of Petrov last out be the play?
I\'m lost.
AJ- I have no strong opinion, but having just looked at the race, this is a great opportunity to use your post, to discuss sheet theory, particularly with respect to developing 3 year olds- basically teenagers and trigger a discussion from the board.. I rarely bet the \" fastest\" horse. Rather, I try to look at patterns to see which horse will likely run a new top- sometimes a new top is fast enough to win a particularly race-- and sometimes not. But you always get good value since most players- sheets or otherwise -are focusing on the so called fastest horse. We can all stipulate that if Malagacy comes close to pairing up his sprint numbers ,he is a likely winner. At short odds however, I will bet that unless he is close to freak, he cannot duplicate his zero, and neg. 1 1/2 stretching out. American Anthem has good spacing and could certainly move forward off the 3 1/4. I
Iike Royal Mos pattern- yet to bounce- but he will lose ground as all the speed is inside. There are 3 horses that intrigue. 1. Uncontested- Ran a 6 1/2 first time out and came back as a 3 year old with a 4 in the slop. The improvement first time as a 3 year old over the 2 year old top is, for me an essential pattern of development. He faded in the Southwest after running fast fractions but should get a good trip tomorrow. At 10-1 morning line ( he was 6-5 in the Southwest, he is worth a look since his running a new top would be no surprise. 2. Untrapped-rand 5 as a 2 year old, did NOT reach that number on a sloppy track in the le Comte but ran a new top (4 3/4) in the Risen Star with a wide trip.. Once again,it would be no surprise, if he ran new top tomorrow and the pace should set up nicely. The \" bomb\" worth looking at ( for me)is Silver Dust. Ran a 7 3/4 breaking his maiden at a mile at CD with a nice run. He paired that top in the Southwest ( at 7-1), after being off for 90 days,did not have a great trip and will likely be 25-1. He is not for everybody but at the price worth a look, particularly in exotics since it would be a surprise if he does not move forward by several points. He is bred for slop and distance. Looking at Lee shows no development from 2 to 3 and with that post, even as a close is not my kind of bet. Fun race to test our acumen. Good luck to all
Last year I touted the Baffert horse just because BB has dominated this race during the last decade.
This year his American Anthem could be a racehorse but so far has not impressed me one bit. The horse that beat him in his last sure flopped in the San Felipe which doesn\'t flatter him. Couple that with the probable low mutual and I end up in El Paso.
Not enough pp info to suit me so I plan to just dutch a couple 10+/1 horses whomever they turn out to be.
On the other hand 2/1 may be a gift on a BB phenom that lays over these and wins by 10.
I\'m with you and don\'t really have a clue.
Good analysis. Not sure I agree with your call on Lookin at Lee.
Has enough on his sheet to think he moves up second off the layoff today. Tough post but hard to imagine anything but a great set up for him to get in the number.
Good Luck,
Joe B
I\'m not going to try to pick the Rebel winner, that race is too tough for me, but I like some other races today at Oaklawn. Now, outside of the 1st, I don\'t have any price horses, but in the races I can\'t pick, with singles in a bunch of races, I can spread out in between and look for bombs to come in in the races I find too unpredictable. I\'m hitting the ALL in the 4th, going 6 deep
in the 8th and 5 deep in the 9th singling Terra & Madefromlucky in the 2 earlier legs. Unfortunately, the late P5 is too unpredictable for me to get involved in.
1st: Bombs away with #12 Miss Everdeen-You won\'t find her TG #s to be among the faster fillies, but this is her 1st route after gaining conditioning in 2 sprints. Take a look at Lemon Drop Kid\'s TGI in routes vs sprints. She\'s out of a turf routing mare and while she may be better on turf, her breeding for the distance gives her a shot at a nice price in here.
3rd: #2 Be a Factor has the best dirt number. I\'m not buying My Mystery\'s turf number in August translating into a dirt win in March off the long layoff. Be a Factor jogs here.
5th: #2 Sameeha is fast going in and should improve further with the stretch out to a mile. Short price, but looks too tough to beat.
6th: #4 Greeley and Ben was fast at 2 compared with this field and with normal 2 to 3 improvement should run even faster today. No fear of him needing one off his last 2 works. I\'m looking for #7 Horse Fly to bounce back after being outclassed in the Risen Star to complete the exacta.
7th: #2 Terra Promessa looks like a free square in picks.
8th: I\'ll defer to the ROW analysis in my P3s, but I like the fastest horse, #8 Madefromlucky the best.
11th: I\'ll go with the ML favorite #2 Our Track to end the day on a winning note. An improving horse, but hasn\'t raced since 11/12/16.
I know I am not half of the word smith as some of the others on this board,but I try.
Win: Baffert has won 6 of the last 7 Rebel\'s and is 1-1 with horse\'s who has American in the name.
History says Baffert ships his A horse to Oaklawn and goes this route again this year.
AA 3rd race 2nd at 2 turns comes in light, expecting a move forward here and this is my pick to win the race.
I believe the $$ to be made in this race is underneath.
Place: Royal Mo, nice little pattern he has,comes in high weight,will not get an easy lead.
Untrapped; Went back a touch in his 3rd out 1st around 2 turns and in the slop,draw a line through that solid pattern.
Lookin at Lee: Closer of the bunch 2nd of the layoff and has paired his last 3. If the move forward doesn\'t happen today does it ever happen?
Show:Silver Bullion\'I am a sucker for a horse with a price and pairing up his last 2 with a sire who\'s 3 year olds show a nice move forward.
Silver Dust: 2nd time around 2 turn\'s paired his last 2 out of Tapit trainer last 90 days running 37% new tops
TRI Play 7/5-10-11/1-5-8-10-11
Now the cynical side of me hopes the Pletcher horse blows the door\'s of the field as we have all seen this movie before and he would be a complete toss come Derby Day.
Good Luck
John
AA looks like a monster to me.
I think the underneath value is definitely Silver Dust.
The race seems not to have been particularly fast. DRF is showing a Beyer of 89. Is it possible that Malagacy ran an \"X\" and still won?
Could this be Pletcher\'s year? Looks like Baffert is giving him a free pass for the first weekend in May. But don\'t hold your breathe; he may still find a way to lose to some Mine That Bird type.
It is never Pletcher\'s year. And since he is 1 for 50, you don\'t want to keep betting him waiting for it to happen.
Slow race. No runners in that field.
Derby wide open with 7 weeks to go.
The wheat and the chaff separate in the 9 furlong preps. (Pletcher has long been part of the chaff)
Jim
Beyer moved all of the 8.5f races(7th,8th,10th,11th) up a couple of points so Malagacy now a 91.
Thinking the Kings Bishop will be in Malagacy\'s future.
Blinkers on Untrapped in his next couldn\'t hurt.
Could be he has distance limitations,not quite developed or just not that good.Maybe all of the above.Looks like he runs in spots,makes a move on the turn then stuck in neutral while trying in the stretch.Same idea in the Risen Star.Picking up points and checks but not a factor off yesterdays race.Shades might move him up.