I am no Mathcapper, but were the payout\'s a little light today at Gulfstream?
Specific the following tri\'s
Race 4,6,10
I thought the win payouts were right on the money. The loaded MSW filly race exacta also paid about right.
On a side note, it will be interesting to see with TG does with today\'s races. GP seemed to get faster through the day - the only real comparison to the Holy Bull was much earlier. The Withers winner got pretty much the same time as a career allowance horse. Beyer gave Withers a 92 and the Holy Bull a 95. The former struck me as generous, to be honest.
AJ,
The \"win\" payouts were about right? What does that even mean?
Johnny,
The 4th race tri looks fine. When the 1-2 shot finishes 3rd, you don\'t get much premium between the exacta and trifecta, which makes it look a tad light.
The 6th race tri looks really light to me. You only get 10-1 premium between exacta and trifecta when you get a 45-1 shot home for 3rd (as one of 7 horses that could have been 3rd, so 6-1 is fair.
The 10th race tri also looks light, but not as light as the 6th race.
Not sure I would conclude anything sinister here, Just looks like one of those things that can happen.
Good luck
Jim
Race #4 could be somewhat of an anomaly. The favorite #4 was well backed @ 1/2. I looked at the show pool. On the day the not so interesting races had show pool sizes of little over $30K. The pool sizes crept up to approximately $60K as the card progressed.
However Race #4 had a pool size of nearly $89K with some $59K (67%) on the favorite #4. To me this has the appearance of some insiders with deep pockets and a lot of confidence in Made You Look.
Pure Speculation - The winning owner would receive $60K. They might choose to hedge using the trifecta rather than the exacta. i.e., a $40K-$50K show bet yields say $2K+ @ 5%.
A thousand dollars of tickets all/favorite/all and the remaining thousand all/all/favorite. After scratches a seven house field. So the tickets (6*5) = 30 divided into $1,000 = $33 of unexpected tickets. The 235/1 payoff results in
$7.7K.
In this fantasy someone this sophisticated probably balanced/prorated the bets with some target payout in mind. If the horse wins the insurance costs nothing.
Variations - The show bet could have been substantially smaller maybe 1/2 my example and the strategy could vary in consideration of the 2nd place purse. The availability of .50 trifectas and supers and super high five pools provide more tools and lots of leverage but involve the IRS.
So I watched the replay to see if anything about the ride and trip was curious. What I say is that if I had perpetrated such a scheme I would have been nervous. The little I saw in the replay didn\'t give me any confidence the #4 was going to finish itm in a congested field.
Let\'s Go Stable
p.s. - what\'s the over/under on players taking a knee prior to super bowl kickoff?
My first though and I am being cynical was maybe they were pinching the pot to pay for last weeks circus.
Again I am no Mathcapper.
I had thought maybe he was wondering about the prices going to the gate what they paid out. The winner\'s of race 4 and 8 both went in at 7-1, but they paid out differently. Don\'t recall how much.
On the exotics, the race 9 even money fav over the 24-1 shot paid 70 something, which doesn\'t seem light.
This is the reason I started this thread.
Last Saturday at Gulfstream (1-28) 11th race
1st place 5-1
2nd place 8-1
3rd place 38-1
$1.00 Tri pays $1,583
johnnym Wrote:
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> I am no Mathcapper, but were the payout\'s a little
> light today at Gulfstream?
> Specific the following tri\'s
> Race 4,6,10
johnnym --
Fwiw, I ran the numbers through my spreadsheet for each of those races using the discounted Harville method, and relative to the horses\' win odds, they did indeed come in light.
GP4 on 2/4:
$2 Ex paid $264.80, -29.6% light vs. estimate of $376.30.
$1 Tri paid $235.70, -38.5% light vs. estimate of $383.27.
$.10 Super paid $104.35, -8.4% light vs. estimate of $113.98.
GP6 on 2/4:
$2 Ex paid $120.60, -6.8% light vs. estimate of $129.36.
$1 Tri paid $591.60, -44.5% light vs. estimate of $1,066.54.
$.10 Super paid $349.08, -40.9% light vs. estimate of $590.59.
GP10 on 2/4:
$2 Ex paid $120.20, -6.3% light vs. estimate of $128.25.
$1 Tri paid $382.70, -26.9% light vs. estimate of $523.41.
$.10 Super paid $184.71, -26.8% light vs. estimate of $252.37.
I also took a look at the results for the 1/28 W.L. McKnight race you mentioned, which were generous vis-à-vis the win odds:
GP11 on 1/28:
$2 Ex paid $139.80, +24.3% higher than the estimate of $111.66.
$1 Tri paid $1,583.20, +50.6%% higher than the estimate of $1,051.40.
$.10 Super paid $1,171.94, +75.0% higher than the estimate of $669.50.
These results are all within the range of normal variation. As Jimbo stated, likely nothing nefarious going on. You tend to see wider variation in actual vs. expected prices as the exotics go deeper (ie. Pick 4 payouts vary more widely than DD\'s, Supers vary more widely than Ex\'s, etc.).
What I\'ve noticed after much observation is that when there is wide variation in actual vs. expected payouts, it\'s often associated with the degree to which the horses\' final odds vary from their morning line. The exotic payouts sometimes lean a little away from what is expected based on the final odds in the direction of the morning line.
For instance, in the 4th at GP, the place horse went off 32-1 vs. an 8-1 ML - that horse may have been a good deal lower than 32-1 in the exotics. In the 7th, the top four finishers all went off at odds slightly above that of their ML\'s. In the 10th, the winner went off at 17-1 vs. a 10-1 ML and may have been shorter than 17-1 in the exotics.
Over the long run though, using the discounted Harville method, I\'ve found the average variation between expected and actual payouts for exactas to be less than 2%, and around 5% for tris and supers. But for any individual race, it\'s fairly common to see variations of up to +/- 50% or more from what\'s expected based on the corresponding win odds.
Rocky R.
TY Rocky..
50% variation is kind of a large spread no?
johnnym Wrote:
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> TY Rocky..
> 50% variation is kind of a large spread no?
This is only anecdotal, but I have had payoffs where I wish the variation was only 50%. Sadly, these tend to occur on what should be the largest hits ever (I wouldn\'t be so upset about them if the nominal payoff was a more commonplace one).
the worst ever was at Garden State (the racetrack of the 21st century). I hit a pick three with the following payoffs -- $32, $98, $48. It was on a Friday night and including a featured Stakes race. For $1, it paid $2,358 (Prices OK). I did manage to take down the entire pool. Usually, these terrible situations happen to me in the late SoCal Pick 4, and truth be told I can only cite less than a full handful.
Not when you consider the underlying assumption, which is that the horses are all bet in the exotics in exact accordance with their win odds.
The more horses involved, the further the variation can be, because there\'s a multiplicative effect on the estimated payout for each horse whose odds are different in the exotics than they are in the win pool.
The estimated payout for vertical exotics is further complicated by the fact that horses don\'t run 2nd, 3rd and 4th at the same rate as their win odds would indicate (the distribution range is tighter), which is why the computer guys use a discounted Harville method rather than straight conditional probability.
The proof that the assumptions are valid though is in the long-term results, which on average are very close to the actual payouts. I\'m actually surprised that the long-term results are as close as they are, given that there\'s no direct link tying a horse\'s odds in the exotics with that of the win pool, it just works out that way on average through the \"wisdom of the crowd\".
SoCalMan2 Wrote:
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> johnnym Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > TY Rocky..
> > 50% variation is kind of a large spread no?
>
>
> This is only anecdotal, but I have had payoffs
> where I wish the variation was only 50%. Sadly,
> these tend to occur on what should be the largest
> hits ever (I wouldn\'t be so upset about them if
> the nominal payoff was a more commonplace one).
>
> the worst ever was at Garden State (the racetrack
> of the 21st century). I hit a pick three with the
> following payoffs -- $32, $98, $48. It was on a
> Friday night and including a featured Stakes race.
> For $1, it paid $2,358 (Prices OK). I did manage
> to take down the entire pool. Usually, these
> terrible situations happen to me in the late SoCal
> Pick 4, and truth be told I can only cite less
> than a full handful.
Pic-3 pools at Bob Brennan\'s reincarnation were consistently below skimpy. Tough to look to throw deep, under those conditions.
I eyeballed the results when this was first posted. Surprised there is so much interest in this random day, when anomalies crop up almost daily.
I won\'t get into to all the explanations, but in the 4th the horses were all coming out of the same race. That alone will produce a lower than \'average\' payoff in most cases.
Without even looking at the pp\'s the 32-1 had beaten (I\'ll assume it wasn\'t on a dq) the winner last out. No idea why the odds spread was so wide. 32-1 vs 7-1.
There are more perverse payoffs lurking out there than most of you imagine. That they rarely win spares you from the horror.
I, for one, find this conversation interesting. Reminds me of the time I learned to not bet horses that can not/will not pass other horses in a race unless you think they will go gate-to-wire. Pretty obvious but oh so important. This conversation makes me want to pause when I see how a race is being bet to possibly load up when there are substantial vertical overlays. And, the opposite when there are underlays. Again, pretty obvious stuff. I tend to bet exotics much more than straight bets and I will give this a try.
Thanks.
Strike:
How would you know a vertical overlay when it seems that the Ex odds really have no meaning on the TRI odds,if I am interpreting this info correct.
TY fellas for the responses.
John
SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> johnnym Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > TY Rocky..
> > 50% variation is kind of a large spread no?
>
>
> This is only anecdotal, but I have had payoffs
> where I wish the variation was only 50%. Sadly,
> these tend to occur on what should be the largest
> hits ever (I wouldn\'t be so upset about them if
> the nominal payoff was a more commonplace one).
>
> the worst ever was at Garden State (the racetrack
> of the 21st century). I hit a pick three with the
> following payoffs -- $32, $98, $48. It was on a
> Friday night and including a featured Stakes race.
> For $1, it paid $2,358 (Prices OK). I did manage
> to take down the entire pool. Usually, these
> terrible situations happen to me in the late SoCal
> Pick 4, and truth be told I can only cite less
> than a full handful.
Out of fairness, I need to point out a P4 at Santa Anita that paid well. It may not be sexy or exciting, but yesterday\'s late pick 4 at Santa Anita paid $289 per 50 cents and if I did my math right the parlay should have paid only $118....so the pick 4 was almost 250% of the parlay. Of course, sequences with low priced horses and low payoffs are not sexy. But, the variance cuts both ways. the win payoffs in the sequence were $7.40, $7.60, $6.60, and $10.20.....the 50 cent pick 4 paid $289.10.
Rocky,
Here is one for the ages!!!
Rainbow 6 today at Gulf today. I\'m alive to 1,2,3,4 in the last leg on a $102.40 ticket. 6K with 4, 11K with 1, 24K with 3, 102K with 2, I\'m cursing up a storm as the race collapses and the 5 swoops the group. The 4 breaks bad JJ rides the rail gets shut off totally in the lane with a ton of horse.
No one picked 6, pick 4 and 5 paid $9500 & $44000 with 7/5 and 2/1 shots in the sequence and 5 out of 6 paid $1180. My losers payoff X 4 was 80% of the return if the 4 won the race and I hit it!
Frank D,
Frankie Rainbow –
Congrats on that 5 of 6 payout. Yeah, crazy day - I was surprised no one had all six. The $.20 parlay was $22.5K with a pool of $83.6K, so just based on the math, after adjusting for takeout there should've been one or two tickets on that combo, and that's without taking into consideration that the longer combinations are often overbet in the Rainbow sixer.
I took a look at the Pk4 and Pk5 payouts and the Pk4 did indeed come back generous. At GP, it should on average pay about 68.5% more than the parlay but it ended up paying 140% more. Believe it or not though, the Pk 5 actually came back a little light. At GP, it should pay around 116% more than the parlay but it only paid about 71% more. I think the parlay was so high, even with those 7/5 and 2-1 winners, because of the two $30 horses and the other double digit winner. Just goes to show you that you can get some pretty sizable payoffs even with a couple of short-priced faves in the sequence..
Rocky R.