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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: TGJB on January 12, 2017, 11:10:40 AM

Title: Form Ratings
Post by: TGJB on January 12, 2017, 11:10:40 AM
We got a huge response to the Form Ratings free samples (couple hundred emails). A lot of the questions were redundant, so let\'s get them on this string. For starters, patterns are not considered, it\'s strictly a mechanical formula using recent figures.
Title: Re: Form Ratings
Post by: TGJB on January 12, 2017, 01:31:15 PM
We\'re putting one track a day up free on the site for Fri, Sat and Sunday.
Title: Re: Form Ratings
Post by: jalt2 on January 12, 2017, 03:44:24 PM
Any idea on the free track for Saturday? Not wanting to duplicate a purchase of the form ratings off equibase.

Thanks
Title: Re: Form Ratings
Post by: TGJB on January 12, 2017, 03:53:39 PM
Aqu Friday, GP Saturday, SA Sunday.

Really impressed by the number and thoughtfulness of the responses, which are still coming in.
Title: Re: Form Ratings
Post by: jalt2 on January 12, 2017, 03:56:51 PM
Not to mention that the results yesterday on the 3 complimentary tracks was quite nice!
Title: Re: Form Ratings
Post by: Niall on January 13, 2017, 10:28:21 AM
In the 3rd at Aqueduct # 4 Chorus Line was an obvious play based on the ratings, good for an almost $40 Exacta. Not easy to do in a 5 horse field!
Title: Re: Form Ratings
Post by: Niall on January 13, 2017, 12:28:20 PM
Same with the #3 Risetotheoccasion in the 7th. Highest rated goes off at 17-1 and completes the exacta with the 2nd highest rated winning. $87

Looks promising JB
Title: Re: Form Ratings
Post by: Boscar Obarra on January 13, 2017, 03:51:53 PM
Just for completeness,  the 8th had the 1/2 finishers GAPPED by 9 lbs, for a 54.50 exacta.
Title: Re: Form Ratings
Post by: Niall on January 13, 2017, 06:26:23 PM
9 lbs gap? I see 4
Title: Re: Form Ratings
Post by: Boscar Obarra on January 13, 2017, 06:40:06 PM
As I stated

 103
 99
 90

9 lbs of gap to the third horse, which is the same as saying 9 lbs of gap for the top 2.
Title: Re: Form Ratings Sat 1/14 GP Race #2
Post by: Tavasco on January 14, 2017, 01:36:15 AM
In the above referenced race, horse #4 Exclusive Strike is beginning its 10th year. The horse has been sliding down the claiming ladder for a couple of years with sort of a marauder\'s 2016 campaign.

While its logical that the gelding\'s value would be declining a TG analysis of the race would consider age and campaign if only slightly.

So I begin to wonder is Form Rating just math, or just Human intelligence making meaning of data or a hybrid.

The horse has an 11 lb advantage in the form rating which I suspect relates back to some previously better performances than will be needed today.




Oops I should have read the introduction first and then contemplated it before expressing my curiosity.
Title: Re: Form Ratings Sat 1/14 GP Race #2
Post by: TGJB on January 14, 2017, 10:50:31 AM
Again-- it\'s strictly mechanical. The judgement came only in making the figures and the formula. It\'s not handicapping, it\'s strictly a general power rating based on recent form. If there was handicapping involved it wouldn\'t be a $10 product.
Title: Re: Form Ratings Sat 1/14 GP Race #2
Post by: Tavasco on January 14, 2017, 12:01:25 PM
Thanks!
Title: Re: Form Ratings
Post by: TGJB on January 15, 2017, 04:12:52 PM
So as those who took today\'s freebie know, the top rated horses at SA are doing pretty well so far-- 8 races, 6 won by the top rated horse, including at least two which were not the favorite. One of the remaining two races was won by a first time starter, who of course did not have a rating.

We\'re going to start selling these things later this week.
Title: Re: Form Ratings
Post by: Niall on January 27, 2017, 06:01:36 AM
I\'m going to be using the Form ratings (& DRF PP\'s) tomorrow at Gulfstream. At first glance, there are one or 2 that I wasnt going to play but now must, and at least a few that I had considered using but will not. Unless of course I expand my bankroll early in the card...

On another note, NYRABETS and XPressBet are running promotions that refund your money on a win bet if your horse runs 2nd and in the case of Xpressbet, 2nd or third. Granted its not a lot of $$ (capped at $25) but it does let me go a little deeper. That said, any thoughts on the best way to play? Maybe go lighter in the p4 on secondary tickets?

Good luck all!
Title: Form Ratings Pegasus World cup Post Mortem
Post by: Niall on January 30, 2017, 09:11:11 AM
I was only interested in playing p5 and P4 tickets, using top rated horses and favorites who were contenders, and who I though might jump up. Except I didnt.

4 of the top 5 winners in the p5 were the highest rated horse, Suffused not being on of them. Did not use Tahgleeb, was heavy towards to 4 and 11. Oh well ...