I\'ve been enjoying everyone else\'s thoughts on the Belmont and I thought I\'d weigh in with my own highly-unimpressive take. Hell, it beats studying for the bar. I\'ll be the first to admit that I\'m not the horse player I was pre-law school when I firmly believed my opinions were among the best out there, at least until I went to the track and had them shattered on a daily basis. Now, I rarely need to wait for the actual race to realize my opinion is probably wrong. Nevertheless, here goes.
The first thought I have is really more about Lion Heart than SJ. LH reminds me so much of Peace Rules. And just like PR, SJ didn\'t so much put him away in the Preakness as LH either just collapsed or suffered a physical injury (there may have been news on this, but I missed it if there was). But, overall, LH was always just a sprinter/miler with a big heart. He has been showing all year he didn\'t want to go 2 turns and the Derby (at least in retrospect) seems to have been more about the tracks surface and his heart than his stamina. So, given that LH was SJ\'s main competition in the Preakness, the fact that he was a stretched-out sprinter who pulled a Sham-style collapse takes something away from the big margin of victory. JB gave him another big top, and I trust his figs, but I still am not sure that the Preakness was quite as impressive as it seemed.
Now that I have compared LH to PR, it seems only fair that I say that SJ is obviously not Funny Cide, nor is Purge Empire Maker. Most importantly, unlike that idiotic ride Santos gave FC in the Preakness, Elliot really seemed to wrap up SJ the final 16th and Servis has resisted the temptation to blow SJ out in 46 or whatever brilliant move Barclay did last year. So, SJ deserves to be the overwhelming favorite. Hell, I can\'t possibly imagine any of these challengers beating him on their best day. But unlike all the experts whose opinion I respect more than my own, I just have this vision in my head. I just can see SJ hitting the top of the stretch with the lead when he starts staggering and some nobody horse (Eddington???) comes galloping up alongside him and nails him late. Maybe its just the product of having been on this planet 26 years now and not having seen a 3crown winner since I was all of about 5 months old, but I just see the 1 1/2 getting to him. Yes, I know that everyone will say he has proved his pedigree didn\'t matter the way he won the first two legs but we all know the Derby was a seriously speed favoring track, and the Preakness, well, it just reminds me of Favorite Trick\'s BC Juvenile (when Grand Slam had the back of his leg ripped off) when it looked FT would run all day long. I think people are being a little cavalier about this stretchout -- I mean, it is a friggin\' 1/4 mile longer than he has ever run before. Horses who look like they won\'t stop at a mile sure can stop in a hurry at 1 1/4 (see Favorite Trick, etc.).
Anyway, if you actually read through all that thanks for putting up with my ramblings. I hope Smarty proves me wrong, the sport could sure use it, but I still belive Silver Charm was a better horse and if he couldn\'t get it done...
that was a great post, and basically if he does not win it that is what will unfold.
I can see smarty losing this one race at this distance, then never losing again, though southern image and pleasently perfect may have something to say about that.
Smarty Jones doesn\'t have a Touch Gold or Free House chasing him and Smarty wasn\'t life or death to hold on in the Preakness like Silver Charm.
I agree Holy, my point was that if SJ did have to duel with Free House and then hold off Touch Gold, I doubt we\'d be talking about him going for the Triple Crown. Silver Charm did that and still, IMHO, would have won the Belmont if Chris McCarron weren\'t the best money rider of his time. That, was a perfect ride.
Dan,
While I agree that McCarron gave TG a great ride, Steven gave one of the worst rides ever and its all his fault that Silver Charm lost the triple crown!!
Here\'s why: DEAD RAIL - TG drew the rail. (Silver Charm) had already chewed up and spit out Free House, so who\'s the horse to beat? Touch Gold of course. So what does Stevens do? Instead of burying his main rival on the rail (like a truely great rider would do), he goes 6 wide into the 1st turn (like an apprentice). And that ground loss, my friends, made all the difference at the wire.
I\'m sure the ground loss hurt Silver Charm but after watching his Dubai World Cup, I still believe that if he\'d seen Touch Gold flying on the outside, he would have found another gear and held on anyway.
While we\'re on the subject, if a Hall of Famer like Gary Stevens can get thrown off his game going for the Crown (not to mention Antley on Charismatic, Desormeaux on Real Quiet or Espinoza on War Emblem), any reason to think that Stewart Elliot won\'t? It is, apparently, his only mount on the card...
Well, my vision off the race was pretty much right. Nevertheless, I still managed to go 4 deep in the Pick 4 (without Smarty) and didn\'t use Birdstone...It\'s a shame for racing but it wasn\'t meant to be...
With a great assist to Over Rated Jerry Bailey for his intentional premature move forcing SJ just enough to get him beat.
Smarty didn\'t rate enough is all. Servis did his best to slow him down and take him off, but I think he moved himself and moved too early. Obviously he wasn\'t a Secretariat. He ran a fast 10 marks and then plodded home.
Don\'t hold your breath waiting for another Secretariat, especially one to run a Belmont of that magnitude.
SJ was not disgraced at all, and if the very fresh Birdstone doesn\'t fire big, he would have won for fun.
Tough game.
I agree, what was Bailey doing? I would not be happy if I owned that horse.
Smarty will not win at a 1 1/12, fortunately that will never be an issue again.
C&C,if you get a chance watch the overrated one send his horse at the 5/8THS forcing SJ to go on.SJ could never go 48 and not be settled, he wasn\'t rank at all.
I have no idea what the # will look like, but SJ ran his race or close to it. The winner came off the bench after non-efforts and just fired nicely is all. What\'s the big deal.
I\'d go further than saying he wasn\'t a Secretariat, Smarty is a nice horse but unless you think Birdstone is Victory Gallop or Touch Gold, I\'d say Smarty is no Real Quiet or Silver Charm, either.
I think the difference between the good horses and the great horses isn\'t talent - they both have that - its the ability to adapt and adjust. Smarty still hasn\'t shown he can do that with top notch horses. As easy as this is to say in hindsight, everything just set up perfect for him in the Derby and the Preakness. Hell, it set up perfect for him today. He just couldn\'t adjust to the distance or the pace (which wasn\'t that face given the times Belmont\'s been throwing off today). My (worthless) opinion is that Smarty is a cut below the best horses of the last 20 years, and several notches below Secretariat, Affirmed and Slew. I trust JB\'s figs, so maybe he is faster (although his final times sure don\'t indicate it), but he certainly isn\'t better.
Birdstone flashed enough at two to think he might be a decent horse. At this point in his career, he compares alomst perfectly with Lemon Drop Kid. It would be nice if he can have the same sort of 4 year old year LDK had.
Oops. I should have wrote fast, not face in the last post. Not sure how a pace could be face but this is what studying 12 hours a day for the bar will do to you...
They finally posted the chart at Equibase. The 27 final quarter is certainly on the slow side, and accounts for the rundown. Is anyone really surprised that the extra 1/4 was an Achilles heel?
Still, a nice performance and where were the rest of them at the wire?
Post Edited (06-05-04 20:05)
I think the speed figure for this race is more or less meaningless. It was the only 2 turn race of the day and it\'s a rare distance.
Smarty essentially fired his best shot and got beat by a combination of being used early putting away several other fairly good horses and trying to outrun his pedigree by 1/2 mile. With an easier trip or a shorter distance he wins.
It was very disappointing, but he didn\'t disgrace himself. He didn\'t weaken until quite late. Most of the horses thought to be upset possibilities that raced with him early got buried by him and finished well up the track!
One other thing is certain.
He was handled to perfection by John Servis.
If I were a owner I would be quite comfortable giving all my horses to John Servis! I hope more people realize what a competent guy this is.
I think we are going to see a lot more great races from Smarty at the standard distances.
Just for the record, I made small win bets on Rock Hard Ten and Eddington. I was praying that I would have to tear them up, but not bcause Birdstone won. :-(
Excellent points by you Class and CtC. The horse is not Secretariat or he would have leveled off turning for home finished up in 2:25 flat (the track was quick) and won by twelve lengths. But he came home in over 27 seconds and got beat.
VERY GOOD 1 1/4 time. The third leg of the Triple Crown is another quarter mile longer. Smarty ran as long and as hard as he could, it just wasn\'t enough. The Story was great, the Connections were great, you have to earn it no one gives it to you and it just wasn\'t meant to be.
Racing still had a great day with big crowds, big handles, and I\'m betting big ratings. Smarty is a long ways from done and because he didn\'t win may hang around for another year. More on that later.
I do not know what was more amazing, Birdstone winning or Zito breaking his 0 for 65 streak first time grass with Gulch Approval. Cost me a win bet.
Silver it could have happened. He could have won by as easily as Birdstone or even more so. He just got to anxious to be on the lead....I think the horse did it. I dont think Stu moved him. The horse wanted to go is all and came up short in the stamina part of the race. Just like Funny did.
I\'m sick because I had big tickets with the Bird second. I\'ve always believed he caught a dead rail in the lanes end. All i had to do was cover a little and i\'d of had it...but i\'m sad for the game. This is good horse. I think hes tons better than Real Quiet and probably better than Silver Charm. Maybe not at 12 marks.
You might be right.
Hope you had a good day, my good friend had me alive on two Pick Six tickets (Purge and RHT)and I swear I might have traded both of them before the race to see a Triple Crown Winner.
You did one helluva job this spring with your Three Year Old analysis.
Shark
Danzig-Surfside.
Ran second for The King. Gotta start thinking about next year don\'t we. LOL
Took me a week to get over Silver Charm losing. No BS.
Racing won today anyway....goodnight.
Shark was Lukas?....looks well bred...u never know.
I think I\'m already over it. He\'s still my favorite horse next to Easy Goer. Its hard to win them all. Dayum this one was close though. Not as close as Real Quiet and Silver lost it. I still can\'t believe Smarty moved when he did. Birdstone was sharp skipping the Preakness. This is the last time I get hooked. Next year if I\"m alive going into the Belmont on a horse I picked I\'m covering. This is my last sucker bet....lol
My powers of observation are not what they once were, but I now notice that Zito won with 2 other bombs today. Better late than never.
Methinks the \'mojo\' was working today.
>always believed he (Birdstone) caught a dead rail in the lanes end.<
Excellent point and I agree.
Unfortunately for me, considering all the problems Birdstone has had this spring, it was hard for me to conclude he would be ready to win this.
If Bird had come up with a little less I\'d of had everything. That was a 140 perfecta I failed to box. 75% of my perfectas were Smarty-Bird. But the money really doesn\'t bother me even though I lost pretty well for the day. I really think Smarty is a better horse and was certainly worthy of a Triple Crown. I don\'t think he\'s as good as the last three. But theres been Triple Crown winners hes better than and its so damn hard to win now. Zito the Zit playing \"I\'ll save a horse for the last race\". You know he\'s a retard. A certifiable N.Y. simpleton, but he can train if you set him up for a race.
>I really think Smarty is a better horse and was certainly worthy of a Triple Crown.
So was Spectacular Bid, Alysheba, Silver Charm and the Buffalo Bills but none of them did what they were supposed to do so there in lies the rub. That as a fan will be the toughest part because when you look back years later you will say to yourself his name should be on that trophy but its not going to be.
>But theres been Triple Crown winners hes better than
Be curious how you could prove that one. This horse had not won a Graded Stake until he won the Arkansas Derby and no Grade Ones until the Ky Derby. OK maybe Sir Barton who was still a maiden when he won the Derby.