On Saturday, I noticed three horses in particular that struck me on the odds board early in the betting. I\'m not one to let the odds board persuade my wagering as Rocky has taught us well that the win odds will usually balance out with the horizontal payoffs fairly accurately. This happens often enough I\'m sure but 3 in one day that I would notice seems a bit more often than I\'m used to seeing. Curious others\' thoughts on these three, if any thoughts at all.
1. Elate, R4 Aqu opened as the 2-1 favorite in a one mile MSW race for 2yo fillies. Maybe the workout reports gave this one away? Her win evoked memories of Royal Delta the way she won first out at 2yo for Mott although if I recall correctly RD was more like 8-1 in her debut. Final odds were 5-2 for the only first time starter in the race.
2. Curl the Pearl, R5 CD. 20-1 on the m/l in a 12 horse msw race 1 1/16 miles. Bradley had two in the race. This one finished 13+ and 14+ lengths behind in two previous sprints. Opened as the 2-1 favorite, drifted to 7-1 by post time and won.
3. Anchor Down, R10, opened 3-1 if memory recalls correctly, dead on the board in my opinion, and Pletcher didn\'t win a thing yesterday or today at Aqu. Only 1 other horse had more than 1 100+ Beyer showing on the page, this one\'s last was a 108 and was nowhere to be found when real running began in this race.
Nothing sinister here. Just curious others\' thoughts on these, if they noticed them, and if the multi\'s were similar to their off win odds. Most meaningful to me is to pay attention to the Bradley barn that seemed to suggest that this 1 for 20 barn going in cashed some win wagers.
Fairmount1 Wrote:
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> On Saturday, I noticed three horses in particular
> that struck me on the odds board early in the
> betting. I\'m not one to let the odds board
> persuade my wagering as Rocky has taught us well
> that the win odds will usually balance out with
> the horizontal payoffs fairly accurately. This
> happens often enough I\'m sure but 3 in one day
> that I would notice seems a bit more often than
> I\'m used to seeing. Curious others\' thoughts on
> these three, if any thoughts at all.
>
> 1. Elate, R4 Aqu opened as the 2-1 favorite in a
> one mile MSW race for 2yo fillies. Maybe the
> workout reports gave this one away? Her win
> evoked memories of Royal Delta the way she won
> first out at 2yo for Mott although if I recall
> correctly RD was more like 8-1 in her debut.
> Final odds were 5-2 for the only first time
> starter in the race.
I have watched Bill Mott since the early 1980s, when he primarily
trained claimers (he was an exceptional claiming trainer), and Michigan
breds for his main client, Farid Sefa. Mott does not ask his horses for
much in the morning; quickly working Mott horses always should be paid
attention to.
> 2. Curl the Pearl, R5 CD. 20-1 on the m/l in a
> 12 horse msw race 1 1/16 miles. Bradley had two
> in the race. This one finished 13+ and 14+
> lengths behind in two previous sprints. Opened as
> the 2-1 favorite, drifted to 7-1 by post time and
> won.
As long as TVG insists on showcasing the \"talents\" of Schrupp,
LoDuca, Bray, Carrothers, et al, and relegating races from CD and
FG to TVG2, I am not able to comment on CD/FG racing, and probably
will not wager on races from those tracks.
> 3. Anchor Down, R10, opened 3-1 if memory recalls
> correctly, dead on the board in my opinion, and
> Pletcher didn\'t win a thing yesterday or today at
> Aqu. Only 1 other horse had more than 1 100+
> Beyer showing on the page, this one\'s last was a
> 108 and was nowhere to be found when real running
> began in this race.
Rather than looking at this as Anchor Down being \"dead\" on the
board, maybe more accurate to say that eventual winner Connect, who
I recall opened at 8/5 and pretty much stayed there throughout the
wagering, was \"live\".
> Nothing sinister here. Just curious others\'
> thoughts on these, if they noticed them, and if
> the multi\'s were similar to their off win odds.
> Most meaningful to me is to pay attention to the
> Bradley barn that seemed to suggest that this 1
> for 20 barn going in cashed some win wagers.
Saw the first two, both the betting and how they ran, and there was clear correlation. As they approached the wire in the CD race I told Alan \"somebody just made a lot of money\". That was an old fashioned betting coup.