Smarty Jones reverts back to he pre-Preakness level of ability or thereabouts?
12 furlongs turns out to not be Smarty Jones\' optimal distance?
Rock Hard Ten gained some seasoning and fitness from the Preakness and moves forward?
Long striding and even paced Rock Hard Ten appreciates the wide sweeping turns of Belmont and the 12 furlong distance?
I realize that's 4 "ifs", but I actually think all 4 are fairly probable.
I think this may be a horserace and not a coronation.
Must agree Class.
I don\'t see SJ running better than a 0. I used to use 3 straight efforts as the cut-off until War Emblem came around. Now SJ enters the 1 1/2 mile Belmont off 4 straight freaky efforts.
RHT appears to like the surface off his work the other day. Saw it on TVG and it was truly effortless.
There appears to be at least 2 ( Purge ) capable of running a zero and another who\'s love of this surface has been documented for awhile now.
Still believe Eddington can move forward to a 0 as well since his retopped 1 3/4 indicates to me it\'s nowhere near the end. I also think that he was uncomfortable being between horses down the back side and only responded when JB got him outside.
Will we see history ?
Indeed.
Add another to the list :
Silver Charm
Rel Quiet
Charismatic
Funny Cide
Smarty Jones
Save your money for another race. Stu empties the tank on Saturday. Smarty wins by 22, earns a neg 7 1/2 and JB changes the scale.
Post Edited (06-02-04 13:14)
I\'m not certain Smarty will win. But if you\'re not handicapping the most likely upsetter correctly how can you\'re analysis of undoing the heir apparent be seriously considered?
Look closely at Rock Hard Ten and come back and post his weaknesses.
Have neither his sheet or form in front of me, but I\'ll say that I\'m not crazy about retops in 3yr. olds leading to a new top next time out.
Seems like a stronger angle with 4\'s.
TGJB or others may have numbers that prove me wrong, but it\'s been something I\'ve noticed lately.
Beyond that and how lightly raced he is, I \'ll look to you CtC for enlightenment.
I saw nothing in the Preakness that makes me think that Rock Hard Ten, or for that matter, a more \"aggressive\" Eddington are likely to appreciate the stretch to 12 furlongs any more than anyone else. RHT in particular may have benefitted some for the the experience but I still think we\'re months away from seeing his best. I would imagine the strategy from the RHT team will be to shadow Smarty and in my opinion the most likely result will be that, win or lose, Smarty leaves RHT for dead off the turn. Purge is the most likely of all to be a potential upsetter and I wouldn\'t write off someone like Birdstone picking up pieces late.
Post Edited (06-02-04 14:57)
>Look closely at Rock Hard Ten and come back and post his weaknesses.<
I don\'t see many, but I do see clear weaknesses among the other potential spoilers.
Purge does not look like a 12 furlong horse to me despite how impressive he was last time out.
Eddington and Master David are not impossible, but neither has shown me they are worthy of a Classic win at this time. If they win, IMO, it is more likely it will be because the race fell apart than because they ran so well.
The rest are a stretch (more speculative).
I\'ve seen every one of RHT races and I was touting him a potential classic horse after his second start. He won both his maiden and allowance race in a way that even a novice would be impressed by. Those races screamed class. He had huge and obvious reserves of stamina and speed.
I bet him in the SA Derby off the allowance win. He didn\'t win that day, but IMHO, he was best.
He\'s a huge even paced horse that can get good early position, but often finds himself way outside losing ground.
The Belmont is perfect for him.
The track has huge sweeping turns.
The loss of ground is often not really a big disadvantage because of the way the track plays.
He will be able to secure decent early position.
The Belmont (the race) is often won by horses that are more even paced types that have good position and make an move early on the early turn to take command.
He was green in the Santa Anita Derby and again may have lost some of his race in the Preakness with all his gate antics.
Considering they have been working on the latter, I don\'t think it will be an issue this time.
I see a lightly raced, improving colt of obvious potential, bred for the distance, with the perfect profile, and handled by a good trainer.
He won\'t be able to beat SJ if that one fires another huge shot and can handle the 12 furlongs, but IMHO he\'s the clear cut second choice here.
If SJ does not fire his best or the 12 is an issue, RHT is the most likely to win.
It\'s a matter of assigning the exact probabilities. That\'s always tough, but considering the public always wildly overbets horses going for the triple crown, RHT will probably be playable.
Post Edited (06-02-04 14:41)
>I saw nothing in the Preakness that makes me think that Rock Hard Ten, or for that matter, a more \"aggressive\" Eddington are likely to appreciate the stretch to 12 furlongs any more than anyone else. <
You can read my thoughts about RHT in the prior post.
As to 12 furlongs of the Belmont, the race can and often is won going wire to wire or by sitting close.
However, if you look at many hundreds of top 12 furlong dirt classic horses, you won\'t find very many that were wiring sprints early in their career (even if they were winning them). You also won\'t find too many very deep closers.
Typically, horses blessed with tremendous early speed (good enough to wire sprints early in their career) are not also blessed with deep reserves of stamina. When you find one that has both, you usually have found a very rare super champion. (like Seattle Slew)
That\'s one thing we are going to find out about Smarty on Saturday.
I am not saying he is not a \"super champion\", I am saying that given his record and racing profile there is a somewhat greater probability he will not like 12 furlongs as much as he likes 1 3/16 - compared to some of the others.
Post Edited (06-02-04 14:16)
Had the Belmont been run on May 15, the 1 1/2 miles would have been no problem.
I\'m not so much of the opinion that he can\'t handled the distance, but rather that he will be unable to handle it on June 5.
Reserves of speed and stamina ?
Can there possibly be any reserves left ?
What he\'s done these last 2 months and what many expect him to continue to do defies logic.
Can he run an X ( 1 1/4 or worse ) and win ?
Maybe.
Typically, horses blessed with tremendous early speed (good enough to wire sprints early in their career) are not also blessed with deep reserves of stamina. When you find one that has both, you usually have found a very rare super champion. (like Seattle Slew)
I tend to agree - though recently it sure seems we\'re getting classic winners from unlikely sources. Elusive Quality; Distorted Humor; Our Emblem - speed influences that at least I associated with early achievers rather than potential classic horses. Though I think it\'s clear the game is changing some pedigree wise because of the sheer numbers of good broodmares being bred back to these type sires. Dr. Roman of dosage fame was quoted in the NY Post Sunday as saying Smarty was bred as well as any in the field for the distance of the Belmont. I guess that means he likes him better than he did Real Quiet. I\'m not so much pro-Smarty than I am apprehensive anyone in this field can pick up their game enough at this time to beat him even if he doesn\'t fire his best shot. To my eye he has done all the work, chasing down and disposing of quality speed in his last four races without being threatened. It could be the end of the line but I\'m not sure anyone told him that.
pgsheets wrote:
\"I don\'t see SJ running better than a 0. I used to use 3 straight efforts as the cut-off until War Emblem came around. Now SJ enters the 1 1/2 mile Belmont off 4 straight freaky efforts.\"
The question is, what do you describe as an effort? Going from a 15 to a 10 would be for some; racing consecutive 5\'s for others etc. There\'s a threshold out there for everyone.
For good spring 3yo\'s the \"threshold\" is about a 2.0; at this point, most say uncle. The prep races this season were strewn with \"erratic\" results, but in reality many had just crossed this threshold and reacted. Not many are able to repeat these efforts and are replaced by others who can\'t also. Which leads us to Smarty Jones.
The truth of the matter is, Smarty has run seven, thats 7 freaky efforts in a row. All 0.5\'s or less. That\'ll be 7 efforts better than any single lifetime top by all the Belmont entrants but Purge with two Zeds and whatever he ran in the Peter Pan, which looks as though it was a fast race.
Will Smarty finally collapse after a last gasp re-top at -3.75, doubt it. This one is special [read the post about the bio-mechanics I posted earlier] and might never lose. [they all do eventually, but......he loves to win]
Later,
\'sheets
pgsheets wrote,
>I\'m not so much of the opinion that he can\'t handle the distance, but rather that he will be unable to handle it on June 5.
It will be the only time he is ever going to be asked to do it.
There is no mulligan.
>I\'m not so much of the opinion that he can\'t handle the distance, but rather that he will be unable to handle it on June 5. <
Just to be clear, I haven\'t been saying he can\'t handle it. I can actually present evidence he can. I thought the Pimlico surface on Preakness day was tiring and he sure as heck didn\'t look tired at the end of that race. :-)
I\'m saying that on a scale of 1-10, with 10 being certainty, in my mind he\'s a 7-8. I think RHT is probably an 8-9.
At 1-5 and at least a decent chance RHT moves forward and SJ moves back a little I start getting queasy about thinking this is a coronation. :-)
Before the Preakness I thought that RHT would be a cinch in the Belmont.
He would be fitter after his condition effort in Baltimore, would love the sweeping Belmont turns, would be close enough to pounce early, etc., etc,etc. Despite the impressive breeding to run all day, RHT has shown little in either the SA Derby or the PKNESS to indicate he wants any part of a mile and a half. He has not finished impressively enough in either route race...ditto EDDINGTON who is trained by a guy who should be training dogs to crap 3 hours after they eat.
If anyone is going to upset SJ (assuming SJ stubs his toes), it will most likely come from a horse who has raced impressively over the Belmont surface,preferrably in a stakes race(Not PURGE).
Good Luck,
Joe B.
\'sheets;
Thanks for posting the excellent Inquirer story. I know nothing about biomechanics, but that story at least tries to address why Smarty might be the freak that he is.
To me, the pedigree and distance \"questions\" are - right now - laughable. He seems to be an athlete incapable of stumbling (no jinx intended, Smarty). Therefore, the remaining question is the accummulated stress of his efforts.
The toll of racing very fast figures may not affect him the way it does other horses running 5 or 6 points slower. Smarty is behaving as if he is a one-in-a-million kind of horse. The Inquirer story suggests that the measurements which seem to make him some kind of \"perfect racehorse\", could be the reason why he doesn\'t seem to react the way the other 999,999 would.
This is not to say he is a mortal lock, a good bet in the Belmont or that he won\'t someday run an X. Don\'t need to tell you that a contrarian nature can be very helpful in this game. But I agree that - this time - the contrarians seem to be grasping at straws.
Still Think Royal ASS.ault has a exotic chance. Based on the morning Line Odds and the post position. Either the race will go off with a super box of 2,5,8,9 winning or the second best probability will be 1,6,8,9 getting the superfecta but alas even the
4,6,8,9 has an outside chance. Needless to say if I hit look for me as Bham41 no more! I am coming back as Dr. Derby which is the reverse of Derby Drive the main entrance to the track I bet at, also significant of my style of reverse handicapping which has its perks as HIND SIGHT is 20/20 and you don\'t have the wait involved but T Graph did that too.
I see no one beating Smarty...but other than RHT, I will play the Preakness undercard angle with him in the tri - remember Sarava? Smarty/RHT,Royal Assault/RHT,RA
Smarty does things he isn\'t supposed to do, from a pedigree standpoint. Remember Conquistador Cielo?? Wins the Met Mile, then the Belmont in the same week! Just read the latest SI article, where a trainer who has been in the game for 30+ years talks about the fact that Smarty is the only horse he has ever seen NOT MAKE A SOUND when he works out. That means he has an amazing heart/lung mechanism that could overcome just about anything.
I\'m sitting this one out, hoping he wins the crown; the sport needs it!
Nice call Joe B.
ka-ching!!! IRS time.....$10 pick 4.
thanks Bit-player.
The 2003 Grade I Champagne winner at Belmont with a 120 late pace rating from BRIS off of the slow early Champagne fractions.
Some horses just run better when allowed to run to the pace that suits them best.
From pre-derby favorite in February to 36-1 just because of a couple of bad races in the goo. I love this game!!!!
Good Luck,
Joe B.