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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: jimbo66 on November 04, 2016, 07:46:57 PM

Title: A few thoughts....
Post by: jimbo66 on November 04, 2016, 07:46:57 PM
On today\'s results:

1.  East Coast horses win 3 of the 4 BC Races, with Forever Unbridled likely running as well as any except Beholder in the 4th race.  Another East Coast shipper.  Through one day, all the seminar talk (and SA Cup history) about the difficulties of shipping weren\'t helpful.

2.  Kiaran breaks an 0 or the west coast schneid.  One of the streakiest trainers around, in a streaky profession.  Considering he trains a horse that has a negative 8 and will be a distant 3rd choice tomorrow, this is worth thinking about.  

3.  Main Track was fast, but didn\'t seem speed favoring to me. Heard a trainer whining early about merry go round races, but I didn\'t see that.  The winners of the 4th, 5th and 7th all came from well out of it.  

4.  Turf course results show horses did win from out of it, but there were several races with vicious paces where the frontrunners hung around.  The new turf has been kind to speed since it opened and I think that while I wouldn\'t call it a bias, I would prefer horses with enough rating ability to be on or near the early lead.  Makes me worry about Flintshire a bit tomorrow, a horse I would like to single in multi-race  bets.

5.  Sorry, but can\'t help one quick \"jockey slam\".  Posted her during Saratoga that Geroux reminds of Leparoux, dominates in the small colonies, but awful in big spots.  (he was awful all Saratoga meet).  He showed that again today.  No excuse to be 3w/3w with Gun Runner off a vicious pace in the mile.  A disgraceful performance aboard the Ramsey horse in the finale.  And a terrible ride aboard La Coronel, albeit he has the excuse of a bad post, so not nearly as egregious.  I know I will be very careful to minimize use of him in any bet tomorrow.  

6.  On a positive jockey note, I can\'t help but love watching Mike Smith and Gary Stevens in a stretch duel in a huge race.  Two great guys, approaching their expiration date in this profession (writes the guy who is about the same age as them).  Both are class acts.  Sure, both may have lost a little off their fastball, but not too much.  (Gary not as physically strong in the stretch as he used to be and Mike occasionally loses ground, but both are EXTREMELY smart riders, which makes up for those small regressions in skills).  Mike Smith may be as graceful as any athlete after a tough loss when it comes to handling an interview (Maybe Cam NEwton could watch one of those interviews)/

Tomorrow should be epic as well.

Jim
Title: Re: A few thoughts.... on your thoughts!
Post by: TempletonPeck on November 04, 2016, 10:16:44 PM
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> On today\'s results:
>
> 1.  East Coast horses win 3 of the 4 BC Races,
> with Forever Unbridled likely running as well as
> any except Beholder in the 4th race.  Another East
> Coast shipper.  Through one day, all the seminar
> talk (and SA Cup history) about the difficulties
> of shipping weren\'t helpful.

Agree, inherent problem with tiny samples. It\'s really easy for \"They sent a couple crap horses\" to look like \"east coast horses are at a disadvantage!\"

I\'m not saying it is or it ain\'t, just saying that\'s the problem.

>
> 2.  Kiaran breaks an 0 or the west coast schneid.
> One of the streakiest trainers around, in a
> streaky profession.  Considering he trains a horse
> that has a negative 8 and will be a distant 3rd
> choice tomorrow, this is worth thinking about.  

Am I about to be the first guy to draw the following parallel between the Distaff and the Classic? The 3 players:

Beholder ~= Chrome (the older horse, prefers outside stalking, likely the best, certainly the people\'s champ)
Frosted ~= Stellar Wind (the \"other\" older horse, typically comes from slightly off it, nobody likes for some reason)
Song Bird ~= Arrogate (the upstart!)

Maybe the larger point is I won some money today and got into the wine.

>
> 3.  Main Track was fast, but didn\'t seem speed
> favoring to me. Heard a trainer whining early
> about merry go round races, but I didn\'t see that.
>  The winners of the 4th, 5th and 7th all came from
> well out of it.  
>
That was Cliff Sise, who basically said \"I told Desormeaux not to worry about winning the race, we\'re screwed. Nice track, idiots!\"

I think it\'s absolutely possible the track was fair all day and the winner of the 1st freaked, didn\'t hear about any watering or other doctoring between races. Didn\'t even seem crazy fast to me, but I\'m not that attentive to those things.
Title: Re: A few thoughts....
Post by: FrankD. on November 05, 2016, 05:06:21 AM
Jim,

You missed the most positive jock note of the day. The ride Jose Ortiz gave Oscar Performance for his maiden BC win. He got away to stalk a very fast pace from the parking lot, saved enough energy for a mid stretch break out and held him together to the wire when he started to BI.

Epic is quite an understatement for the Ladies stretch battle, the olde mare wouldn\'t go away a loser. Congrats to Beholders connections as she went out in style. She was the Lady of the day without doubt in a race that will be talked about forever.

Tough day at the windows for MOI, no back hoe needed but couldn\'t connect the dots san a saver exacta & tri with OP and Lancaster Bomber.

Back at EM today cause all it takes is one!

Frank D.