My thoughts on the Pick 5 Friday races.
R1) #5 Blameitonthelaw has a nice pattern and the last one very competitive, pairing his fast debut number. There pace should be decent enough, this one can stalk and take over down the stretch. 5/1 ML and I think he may go longer than that. Win bet on #5 (If he isn\'t overbet).
#4 Forest Blue looks pretty good, but can\'t take too short a price on a horse that just doesn\'t seem to win. Solid number power, toss the last down the hill. Lots of 2nd/3rd finishes, and he will probably get bet.
As for constructing exotics, several of these run similar numbers. Will look for those with a running style that isn\'t early. The #3 Ain\'t Misbehavin and the #10 Tough It Out will be played underneath. #10 Tough It Out is a 3YO with a nice pattern, I\'ll forgive the last route where he started poorly. Lots of routes and he\'s cutting back to 7F. If the #4 and #5 are overbet I can see a win bet on this one. There\'s a few more that can be added but these 2 are nice prices, have decent numbers, and a good running style for the race shape.
R2) 6.5 down the hill, experience on this course never a bad thing or an outside post.
Taking a shot with #10 Sturdy One. Nice outside post, should be able to sit just off the leaders. 4 back he ran a figure that is the fastest in the race, on the SA dirt going 6F. His subsequent 3 races are very competitive, and his last 2 turf numbers are faster than everyone but the favorite who ran a point faster. He\'s 12/1 ML and if he\'s anywhere close to that I\'m playing him to win. Those to play in verticals include the fav #3 Watch This Cat, #2 Mysterious Miracle(nice pattern and solid figs), #7 My Palmilla(fast last race with a BI, good rest and Kent D down the hill), #5 Tryst, and #12 (slower but has had trouble in the last two and a nice post)
R3) The Marathon
Looks kinda chalky. #1 Scuba and #4 Melmich are faster than the rest. #8 Hard Aces also competitive. Melmich is due to run his fast one, so if I want to skinny up the ticket and leave room to spread in another race Melmich can be a single. The concern is synthetic to dirt, can he duplicate his fast ones on dirt? Not sure what I will wind up doing, but probably just using this race in horizontals. If Hard Aces is forgotten on the tote I can see playing him.
R4) #3 Jazzy Times gets the Blinkers back on, and on his best would win. But he doesn\'t have to run that fast one, and if he doesn\'t #5 Silent Bird is more than fast enough to spring a minor upset. Returned from a 9 month layoff to run a very fast race. He\'s lightly raced and if he can run that one again will be very tough. 8/1 ML with an under the radar jock may keep his price square. #6 Cautious Giant, #8 Prospect Park, #9 Navy Hymn, and #2 Kafister underneath.
R5) #9 My Pi Romancer 10/1 ML ran a very solid number in her debut. Plenty of pace in here to set up her late run. #8 Vai is 2 for 2 and has dueled on the lead in both. 2 solid numbers but perhaps the race shape not the most favorable. 3,4,6,11 underneath. Win bet and keying #9 My Pi Romancer.
$1 P5:
3,4,5
2,7,10
1,4
3,5,6,8
8,9
3x3x2x4x2= $144
Paul,
Good luck and enjoy The Cup Live.
Jimbo and I have been texting back and forth about the opening horizontal sequence and you\'re in trouble. We share many common themes.
There are 3 pick 4\'s to attack during the day as well. Rolling doubles or pick 3\'s can be dangerous enough rolling pick 4\'s making you go on before the results of the previous one can be catastrophic to a bankroll. I\'ll be taking a significant rattle at the 3 pick 4\'s and will post a bit later.
Pick 5: Caveman ticket - 4,5,8,9,12,14 / 2,3,7 / 1.4 / 3,8 / 4,8,9,11
$288 for a buck with press tickets on Prospect Park in the 4th and the 8,9 in the 5th.
Good luck,
Frank D.
Good luck Paul. Hope the missus is feeling better.
Will be keeping my powder dry in early races and will hope that you and Frank D
can multiply your bankrolls for the main events.
The text messages between Frank and Jimbo are likely more entertaining than any
published handicapping materials one might read, loaded as they must be with
equal parts sarcasm, self deprecating humor, and handicapping knowledge.
\"X\" man prop bet: Who wins most races on weekend? DesormeauX, GerouX
or LeparouX?
Richie,
You either know the players all too well or your Russian roots have our devices under cyber attack and are privy to our conversations?
Yesterdays conversation about The Turf went something like this:
Jimbo: Who are you using
FD: I can\'t get past the top 3 in horizontals Flint, Found, Highland Reel
Jimbo: My wife could have come up with those horses Chalk Weasel
FD: The last winner she picked was you and has been in line for 25 years trying
to get a refund.
You get the picture!
I have a simple set for the early pik 5 as well, and am posting this early Friday morning so as not to be accused of the redboarding. These are all M/L of at least 6:1 and I\'ll be singling or keying in a small pik 5 wager and WPS:
1. # 8 Ten Blessings. Working like a beast (alongside Drefong in the am). Not falling for the \"2 bafferts\" angle. At least not in this race.
2. # 3 shows nice forward moves, post not a plus. In addition I spread with 5,10,12. Mandellas\'s charge with FPrat probably hesitated/waited a tad too long, and htis provides an extra fulong. As for the 10, 12 - these are almost 5 YO now and both sires had offspring improve from 4-5. Outside posts helpful going downhill.
3. Scuba & Melmich are obvious and will be short odds. Hard Aces is a must us and drops form G1. Cowboy Rhythm won\'t be short odds. Going with 7,8 here.
4. Getting Castellano at 15:1 ML won\'t stand up, bu it\'ll still work for me at half that with a trainer moving up last 90 days. I take it no one has ever heard of him. I haven\'t. #2 with the dropping fav # 1, and Cautious Giant #8 who has shown he can get back to a \"2\" quickly.
5. The final leg is my Horse of the Day. CA sire Unusual Heat has made his owner a lot of money in LaLa land. Keith D gets 65% 2nd out 2YO. 12:1 ML.
Good luck to everyone. That\'s 1x4x2x3x1 = $24 for $1.
I know I\'m reaching, but:
how about #14, Never Say Try?
Fast debut, then bounces off that with a bad trip (\"dueled 3w between foes\" isn\'t a recipe for success) then in his 3rd he gets back into single digits and works sharply 3 times following that.
A new top doesn\'t seem out of the question to me, which looks very competitive.
Best of all? Saint Javier rides! It could be that Castellano just wants to get a run over the grounds, but it could be the other thing too.
17/1 presently.