Gotta hand it to this guy. Not his strongest year at all but managed to beat Flintshire (impossible) and Tepin (unthinkable). Which could cast him as some type of Underdog Trainer?? Sends out Made You Look in Juvy Turf who may fly under the radar here with no fall campaign. Trainer has not shipped and run well in Cali previously. This one broke his maiden in 1:08 and stalking 21 and 4. Impossible read. Castellano may provide the answer....
Overall in the Breeder\'s Cup, Pletcher is 9/119 since its inception. Three of those winners have come on the turf. I quickly counted 28 turf starters, so 24% of his starts were on the turf, but 33% of his wins were on that surface. Put another way, he is 11% on the grass in the Breeder\'s Cup and based on the number of turf starters per race, that is better than average. He is less than 7% overall on dirt (6/91) and I am sure that is well below expectation. Thus, surprisingly to me, it could be argued that Pletcher has an overall better record on the turf in the Breeder\'s Cup than he does on dirt.
I gave Ectot a close look. This one was the Top 2YO in France having won the Criterium. Started off with 2 decent wins the next year and never got into the race in the Arc while taking money. Last year was a lost cause.
So now he is here. Getting medication. Pletcher crew working on him. Ashley has some early speed and Higland lays up close. But other than that not much else and I don\'t think they are going g to force rhe issue on pace knowing Flintshire is behind them. They are gonna try and wire this field again. If Little Mike can get there I\'ve seen worse ideas than this one. Could be getting right at the right time....
The three winners on turf were two 2yo turfers at CD in 2010 (Pluck and More Than Real) and English Channel (2007, Monmouth).
Thanks for these numbers Molesap, good stuff.
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I gave Ectot a close look. This one was the Top
> 2YO in France having won the Criterium. Started
> off with 2 decent wins the next year and never got
> into the race in the Arc while taking money. Last
> year was a lost cause.
>
> So now he is here. Getting medication. Pletcher
> crew working on him. Ashley has some early speed
> and Higland lays up close. But other than that not
> much else and I don\'t think they are going g to
> force rhe issue on pace knowing Flintshire is
> behind them. They are gonna try and wire this
> field again. If Little Mike can get there I\'ve
> seen worse ideas than this one. Could be getting
> right at the right time....
Unless you went to the wedding, I would avoid the wake. Front running score on a two turn Belmont bog night and day from same over a 3 turn rock hard turf.
Good Luck,
Joe B
I was lucky enough to be on him when he beat Flintshire. The main reason I liked him there was all his opponents in a super short field figured to not like the off surface, plus he figured to get an easy lead. Not sure he figures as well here.
What kind of price would you be willing to take on him? I was pretty po\'d that he went off at single digit odds last out at Belmont (9-1) when I really liked him. Here I\'d think I\'d need more than that.
boardedup Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>I was pretty po\'d that he went off at single
> digit odds last out at Belmont (9-1) when I really
> liked him. Here I\'d think I\'d need more than
> that.
You got 9/1 in a 4 horse field, Lone speed with the chalk known for not liking a soft course. 9/1 was a very square price IMO.
Yeah you\'re right, but the \"word\" or \"buzz\" everywhere was that Flintshire was for the most part unbeatable. TV/Internet, every \"public\" handicapper, every board, the sentiment was it didn\'t really matter, he towered over the competition, allegedly. Obviously looking at it objectively like you are, you\'re correct and 9-1 was pretty solid for all the reasons you listed.
And the day of that race- you know how it goes, under ten minutes to post he\'s 16-1, five minutes to go 12-1, post time drops into single digits and you can\'t help but be a bit annoyed when \"your\" horse takes all the late money.
Speaking of odds/prices, what are the odds that are not used on the ml? I never realized this before but I heard someone on TVG talking about it the other day. I want to say that 7-1 was one of them, not sure? Anyone know the answer to this, I\'m curious?
I believe Castellano stayed with his 2YO in the turf. He had his choice of 3. This is still an impossible read. Do know he is fast enough early. Perhaps the spacing is to condition him to slow down. Will get the typical pilot trip from arguable one of the top 2-3 best turf riders in the world....
P-Dub wrote:
\"9/1 was a very square price IMO.\"
To quote Meatloaf - \"You took the words right out of my mouth.\"
To the West Coast Punters - Some help heeded here.
Baffert is sending out Bollywood in the first race tomorrow Friday. Since I\'m in stage 3 or 4? Breeders Cup Fever (Hallucinations) it looks to me as if this slug has been working for two months in the morning as if he\'s a Breeder\'s Cup contender?
Does anyone know if he recently overcame some inhibition, such as throat surgery, hoof problems, low self esteem?
It\'s just that its the 1st race and while many may still be in the parking lot or trying to ascertain what est. hour the festivities start I suspect Bullet Bob is trying to put one over before we are tuned in.
He\'s been a workout partner with Dortmund, if thats what you mean by working as if he were a BC starter. But he hasn\'t been able to hold his own. I would lean towards the other Baffert runner in that race if i was playing a Baffert. He has two in there for a reason.
Thank You!
Feeling much better now!
Don\'t let me talk you off him if you like him. He\'s been training him for speed and is shortening him up. But you have to wonder about the other one.
I hear ya!
I didn\'t and don\'t like Bollywood. I just needed to reconcile his improved work tab and you\'ve helped me do just that.
So now my strategy will be to take my hoped for BB earnings from Race One and parlay them to Jazzy and/or American Gal.
Um... maybe $2 to to win just so I don\'t have to kick myself in case.
Not having looked at the pp\'s yet, I would offer when this conditioner enters a pair, (perhaps to get the race to fill), the more lightly regarded runner, statistically, is often a player at very appealing odds.
As MJ noted, working with a freak, shortening up, off the shelf... if he fits... seems plausible from here. bbb
Thanks for adding in.
While both Bafferts offer attractive odds it may not be apparent to all which is the lesser. The severe underachiever or the lightly raced colt.
Both A list owners who IMO would love a winner to start the weekend? There are some fast sprinters in the race that will take some beating.
I guess I\'ll sleep on it.
#4 Forest Blue looks pretty good, but can\'t take too short a price on a horse that just doesn\'t seem to win.
Solid number power, toss the last down the hill. Lots of 2nd/3rd finishes, and he will probably get bet.
#5 Blameitonthelaw has a nice pattern and the last one very competitive, pairing his fast debut number. There should be a decent pace in here, this one can stalk and take over down the stretch. 5/1 ML and I think he may go longer than that.
Win bet on #5 (If he isn\'t overbet). #4 will be keyed underneath.
As for constructing exotics, several of these run similar numbers. Will look for those with a running style that isn\'t early. The #3 and the #10 will be played underneath. #10 Tough It Out is a 3YO with a nice pattern, I\'ll forgive the last route where he started poorly. Lots of routes and he\'s cutting back to 7F. If the #4 and #5 are overbet I can see a win bet on this one. There\'s a few more that can be added but these 2 are nice prices, have decent numbers, and a good running style for the race shape.
I like #9 Westbrook a lot in here. Moving back into a sprint off a 3.5 month layoff, blinkers on, switch from Pereira to Prat. The last time he ran fresh was as a FTS and he beat 2 subsequent stakes winners including Travers hero Arrogate. He\'s not the fastest going in, but should run a 3-4 point new top that gets the job done.
Boxing in exactas with 4,5 & 8 and keying over them in tris.