Not a 3 horse race as many believe. Curalina runs solid numbers when ample time between races.
Good Luck,
Joe B
I for one believe its a one horse race. Many here and other venues as well will be licking their chops per various sets of numbers that the Big Beast is vulnerable.
Songbird is plain and simply a FREAK, I saw way too much of her up close and personal at the Spa this summer. I have about 40 pictures of her on my phone.
The pace scenario in this race sets up very favorably for her and she simply can run any fillie or mare in training of their feet with her internal fractions. A 23.36 3rd Alabama quarter for her.
Songbird is a stone cold single for MOI on Friday\'s horizontal menu.
Good luck,
Frank D.
Friday Pick 4 Dortmund/Songbird Singles with Euros and Brown in the other two, seems like the standard wager going.
If plays out as advertised does it pay to play??
Frank
You are going to ruin your reputation as a Kool-Aid drinker....
Songbird a big underlay on TG figs (Beyer as well)
Jim
So being a \"freak\" means no matter who she runs against, no matter when, she wins?
I have no clue what the odds on the top 3 will be.
Anyone want to take a stab at it for me?
Something like this maybe?
SB 1.2
B 3
SW 3
CUR 10 - goes here, 20\'s available if anyone likes her (late TAP ship & all)
CHAT 15
FU 15
LAND 50
COR 100
Know Beholder usually gets bet but have to think people here ensure SW doesn\'t go off higher than her (yet again).
Odds for the Distaff presently posted @ Wynn:
Songbird 4/5
Beholder 5/2
Stellar Wind 3/1
Curalina 8/1
Forever Unbridled 14/1
Chatterbox 15/1
Land Over Sea 40/1
Corona del Inca 40/1
They also have Carina Mia at 10/1 but it appears she\'s much more likely headed for the F&M Sprint.
One of the offshore ones has this line currently:
Songbird 4/5
Stellar Wind 4/1
Beholder 5/1
Forever Unbridled 14/1
Im A Chatterbox 14/1
Carina Mia 20/1
Curalina 25/1
Corona Del Inca 40/1
Land Over Sea 60/1
Those are juicy odds. Looking at previous winners I see a few names of 3YO who have won but not many. Yes Songbird isn\'t an ordinary 3YO but the Top 2 Older Mares are multiple champions themselves. She is goj going to be severely tested
Maybe yes and maybe not.
I see this as an example of a race in which a final time based performance figure may not be the complete picture. I guess such a concept will lump me in with Jack Nicholson and trigger attacks by domestic terrorists.
Certainly the final time figure (a representation of reality) does not include the real world physical attributes or anatomy of the filly. Further in TG\'s case it does not consider pace, a real world fact that is considered by some, many, most to be poo.
As a proud Kool Aid quaffer my imagination saw her skipping and moon walking late in her previous races to win geared down with Disneyesque colored birds and musical notes floating around her.
Most importantly is the Louisianna VooDoo evident on other boards. Apparently the Rag\'s group have been fasting and saving lunch money to play against the over rated Songbird. Last year is was American Pharoah before that California Chrome. The song remains the same. Bet against short priced favorites and for the casual player go broke waiting to catch the loosing race.
TGJB\'s interpretation of FrankD\'s reference to the term FREAK does demonstrates some imagination and even political or is it marketing spin. A new quality to go with his other well known attributes. Once again he has nailed it... until she loses a race and then she is no longer unbeatable.
Finally - remember Lemmings do not stream off cliffs to their death annually that is a lie created by of all folks the aforementioned Walt Disney Studios way back when.
Jimbo,
I can always count on you for a little agitation:) You must feel compelled to fill Miff\'s shoes, you\'re not even close!!!! LMAO
Like you TG figures are THE most important data in our handicapping and when in doubt let the numbers do the talking. Tavasco hits it on head a few lines below, this beast is more than about the numbers.
I trust my eyes and stop watch on her internal fractions.
Good luck,
Frank D.
JB,
They all well almost all get beat at some point.I\'ll stand by my statement of her running any and all fillies and mares in training off their feet.
You know me pretty well, I\'m neither shy when I have an opinion to express nor when I step to the windows to back my opinion.
I knew all to well what your reaction would be and what direction you will be going in the seminar.
Never say never but for now I\'ll say it!
Frank D.
FrankD.,
I really appreciate your candid, strong opinions and voicing them.
First, I\'m completely against Stellar Wind. If someones likes her, they can have her. No problems with that. I just don\'t trust Sadler in the BC and her two wins against Beholder had Beholder on the front end while she stalked right behind her, pounced and won in 5 horse fields where she was posted outside of Beholder.
Beholder is my single and at a stronger amount if she draws outside of Songbird and Stellar Wind. She has won 68% of her races, 13 for 15 at SA, losing those two by a neck and 3/4 of a length. She has run figures far better than Songbird who despite her internal fractions comes home very, very slow. Songbird is this year\'s Lost in the Fog. Look at who she has beaten, .....nobody besides Carina Mia and Cathryn Sophia, 3yo fillies that wouldn\'t be within 10 lengths of Dortmund.
I\'m all about love is in the eye of the Beholder and I\'m in love with Mandella, Beholder, and her figures and her record in BC and at SA. They wanted to run her against Pharoah last year, they ran her against Chrome this year and she still beat Dortmund by 2 1/4 lengths. IDC about Songbird\'s freaky body and freaky record so far.....give me the fastest horse......Behold this winner on Friday Frank.
And apparently you will get near 3-1 on a horse that has won two BC races already.
Fairmount1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
Songbird is this year\'s Lost in the
> Fog. Look at who she has beaten, .....nobody
> besides Carina Mia and Cathryn Sophia, 3yo fillies
> that wouldn\'t be within 10 lengths of Dortmund.
>
\"Who has she beaten\". Heard the same thing about a horse a few years back running in the Classic. Many on this board gave her little chance to even hit the board. Many were supposedly faster. She ran one of the most remarkable races in some time. Name was Zenyatta.
BTW, LITF had cancer and died less than a year after the BC. May have had a little something to do with that performance.
Songbird is often geared down so how fast is she?
I agree with Frank. IMO, there are times that greatness is more than a figure. I won\'t be running to the window to bet a horse at 4/5, but I also won\'t be running to the window to try and beat this one. Maybe JBs seminar will change my opinion.
Frank,
Will agree to disagree on this one and I am sure we will both bet accordingly.
I think if Stellar Wind and Beholder were running in the races that Songbird was in this year, they would look like freaks too.
Sacrilegious for me to take the 3rd fastest horse at 4-5 or lower. No matter what happens.
The question for me is whether to press Stellar Wind or Beholder. I have heard the excuses for Beholder last 2 races, she doesn\'t like to be on the lead, wants a target, etc.etc. So, instead of a softish lead like her last two, she is better off stalking an undefeated SongBird, putting her away and THEN having to hold off Stellar Wind. STellar Wind sort of looks like the \"now\" horse.
Jim
Disagree about the \"running them off their feet\" part. With her last figure and how she drew i believe she\'ll be rather tough. She duplicates her last figure plus the pull in weight makes her tough. I think the question to be answered( for me at least) what will she do when she\'s joined by not 1 but 2 mares who won\'t go away in the lane? Far from a 1 horse race imo and probably no real value in the race. Prediction? Scintillation!
Best of handicapping,
Flighted
The top 3 have a combined record at Santa Anita of 25 22-3-0. Stellar Wind and Beholder have each beaten each other once at Santa Anita. Beholder\'s other loss at Santa Anita was to Renee\'s Titan in 2013 at 6 1/2 furlongs.
Just an amazing stat whether relevant to today\'s outcome or not.
The more I look at this race the more I can see an absolute pace meltdown. Songbird is going to have to send from the rail. Beholder and Curalina shouldn\'t be far off, I\'m A Chatterbox could also show speed in this spot. Really seems to set up for Stellar Wind and Forever Unbridled to come running late.
Forever would need a top here, but it\'s not impossible to see her running one under what should be an ideal set up if she handles the East/West ship, and I think she will be forgotten in the wagering. May have more value underneath than on top.
I\'m not a big fan of that big fig Stellar Wind ran a month ago. That\'s a very big number for filly and it would be tough to imagine it not having some type of effect on her, otherwise I would LOVE her in this spot. But she seems to be training very well. If she is able to repeat that last number and gets the trip I am thinking she is going to get sitting behind the pace and letting Beholder, Curalina & or Chatter do the work on Songbird, she is going to be very tough to beat.
I may be acting stubborn here, but I\'m not going to play Songbird at all in this spot. She very well may be \"All That\" and make me pay. But this field is a whole different kettle of fish than what she has been running against. I think the race/pace dynamics will work against her, and she may bounce off her last effort. I\'m tossing her from the top spot in the verticals and I won\'t use her in the horizontals. If she beats me, she beats me.
The entire scenario you just described wreaks of a classic Dallas Stewart setup and theft at a price.
marathon horse that just shipped in won....one race, but, worth noting
What\'s worth noting is how fast this track is!
I pulled that guy\'s two previous SA runners. Both in the Marathon, both ran well. I didn\'t bet against this one.
Other shippers in that race did not run well. Horses that ran 2-3 lost ground to the winner all 3 turns.
Forever Unbridled at 16-1 worth a small stab to finally break thru that string of zero\'s.
Her Beldame win looked like a paid workout.