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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Silver Charm on October 23, 2016, 06:50:16 PM

Title: Pre Entries
Post by: Silver Charm on October 23, 2016, 06:50:16 PM
They are coming in a few days. We will learn how big of a Euro Ship there might be. They have done very well in California but the last couple of years have not been the dead cinch in the Turf races as they used to be. Ironicus and Flintstone have huge shots. The latter will be favored. Aiden O\'Brien will take a swing
Title: Re: Pre Entries
Post by: TempletonPeck on October 23, 2016, 08:54:07 PM
If I read correctly, O\'Brien said today Found will be cross-entered in both the Turf and the Classic.
Title: Re: Pre Entries
Post by: HP on October 25, 2016, 11:36:25 AM
FWIW, I went through the archives to see just how dominant the Euros are on turf at SA.  Over the last three Cali BCs there were 18 turf races.  Euros won 5 of them at a mile, outside of that, in the remaining 13 turf race they won...one.  Not was I was expecting.  The Belmont horses have done just as well on grass out there.  The other takeaway is that the Cali horses are way ahead in dirt routes, as are the Keeneland horses in dirt sprints.
Title: Re: Pre Entries
Post by: TGJB on October 25, 2016, 11:53:48 AM
Keeneland horses defined as those that last raced there, or stabled there?
Title: Re: Pre Entries
Post by: jbelfior on October 25, 2016, 11:57:08 AM
Does that include the Juvenile turf races?

Good Luck,
Joe B.
Title: Re: Pre Entries
Post by: HP on October 25, 2016, 12:31:33 PM
I went by where they last raced JB.  

7 dirt sprints - last race KEE 4 winners, 3 second, 2 thirds.  Maybe it\'s a factor of the prep races they have there, you would know better than me, but that\'s dominant.  

And yes sir, includes ALL turf races.  

HP
Title: Re: Pre Entries
Post by: HP on October 25, 2016, 12:32:55 PM
Counting 6 and 7f races.
Title: Re: Pre Entries
Post by: jbelfior on October 25, 2016, 01:31:49 PM
Interesting. Also interesting is the success (or lack of it) at SA for those coming out of Belmont dirt races.

Never liked the JCGC, Vosburgh,or Beldame as a prep going to a site such as GP or SA.


Good Luck,
Joe B
Title: Re: Pre Entries
Post by: Silver Charm on October 25, 2016, 07:01:58 PM
I\'m not shocked at that result. And if you want to throw in Keeneland last year just going from memory we had Catch a Glimpse, Tepin and Stephanie Kitten. A Euro did win the Turf but not the 4/5 shot everyone thought would win. And in the Turf Sprint Mongolian won but I don\'t quite see the Euro participation as the other Events.
Title: Re: Pre Entries
Post by: HP on October 25, 2016, 07:23:51 PM
Euros out of the money in turf sprints!  Just adding.
Title: Re: Pre Entries
Post by: Tavasco on October 25, 2016, 08:36:41 PM
I was thinking Mongolian Saturday looked ready to repeat after his win in The Woodford Reserve Sprint @ Kee on 10/8.

Based on your post I looked up his past performances (fact checking - thinking, incorrectly that he was a euro). Discovered he spent most of his career in mid america. Further in the last year he has been unable to handle euro or asians competition.

He excels on the Kee strip, now I\'m doubting his prospective value @ SA.
Title: Re: Pre Entries
Post by: Fairmount1 on October 25, 2016, 08:41:57 PM
HP,

Just want to make sure this is accurate.  

I agree there were 18 turf races in that 3 year period you looked at but I disagree with your totals (3 were the Turf Sprint obviously).

Euro\'s won 8 of the 15 Turf Routes, 6 of them at one mile and 2 of them at beyond a mile.  So, 6 of the 9 mile races were won by Euro\'s and 1 of 3 races won at 1 1/2 miles, TURF, and 1 of 3 races won at 1 1/4 miles, F/M Turf.  

As for the Euro\'s in those 1 1/2 miles races and 1 1/4 mile races that didn\'t win:

TURF:  2012, St. Nicholas Abbey earned the best TG Fig in the race for O\'Brien finishing in 3rd.
2013, Magician won as noted and The Fugue ran 2nd.
2014.  Flintshire finished 2nd for Andre F.

F/M Turf:  2012, the 3rd and 4th place finishers were Euro\'s.
2013, Dank won as noted and Romantica finished 2nd.
2014, Just the Judge finished 3rd for Hills.

I disagree that Euro\'s haven\'t been dominant whether at a mile or 1 1/4 or 1 1/2 miles.  I\'d like to total up how many Euro\'s have run total in the turf routes out there and how they have performed as a whole TG wise and record wise but time is not on my side to accomplish it.

EDIT: I guess since Dank ran at Arlington you aren\'t counting her as a Euro?
Title: Re: Pre Entries
Post by: HP on October 26, 2016, 04:42:37 AM
I\'m going by where they last ran, not where they were based.
Title: Re: Pre Entries
Post by: Silver Charm on October 26, 2016, 04:54:06 AM
Hey guys I appreciate the really good info. I\'m going off memory so please fact check what I post.

The last few years out west the Euros have certainly been dominant in the Filly and Mare Turf. They may have won every time. But in a couple of the Juvys  (at least in one year) I seem to remember Hootenany (?) and Lady Eli. Down the hill in the Sprint they don\'t win. In the Turf there was Little Mike over favored Point of Entry.

If the numbers are like 8 for 15 Euros. That isn\'t 100% which it seemed like at one point they were or felt like they were.