Early results seem to indicate track is on slow side. Rail was good yesterday. Today undetermined.
Met is a helluva a race. Pico and Strong have great trainers in this position. Theres a slew that are ready to pounce in Bowman, Azeri, Gig, Funny...even Saarland could run a top here and I think he will, the question will be is it good enough.
I\'m leaning towards the theory that the rail is not ideal today and I\'m going to discount Bowman\'s Band as a result of that. I think hes gonna get a second flight rail trip.
The track is slowish and I do foresee a spirited pace battle so i\'m going to favor the just off pace horses. I think Azeri and Funny are the big threats. I\'m gonna hook Gig because Gig is set to pop too in my opinion. Calling a winner is tough but if someone put a gun to my head i\'d say funny and he will get the lions share of my bets. I will have Gig with the them as well.
Good luck
Post Edited (05-31-04 17:07)
I took a bath...lol
the only thing that worked out for me was Pico being a better horse than Strong Hope.
Pico looks like he is REALLY GETTING GOOD (understatement of the day), what I mean is that they may want to keep stretching this horse out. Like Pletcher did with Left Bank.
I had actually begun to consider before the race that maybe Strong Hope is strictly a sprinter. He seemed life and death in all his earlier races at one mile or over, even though he did win a couple.
Too bad for Funny Cide, things looked so bright a year ago now. Thorographs comments about the Preakness cooking him are looking smarter and smarter. Hard to imagine a Kentucky Derby winner running in the Evan Shipman and perhaps being in too deep.
Azeri never ran a jump, she seemed to be struggling the entire race, nothing looked fluid. For all of you D Wayne Lukas haters out there I guess its open season.
One thing is for sure you will not change my opinion of THE MAN.
I passed the race.
I thought the odds were approximately correct, but was a bit surpised at the result given the way the race developed.
Disregarding the fractions completely, Strong Hope made the lead relatively easily and at one point looked like he was totally under wraps. With that kind of race development he had no excuse for backing up the way he did. He was certainly suspect at a mile if he didn\'t get the lead or was pressed very hard (which is why I didn\'t make him a big favorite), based on prior performances, but no excuse here.
I didn\'t see much if any bias, but maybe I need to review the charts and races again.
IMO Azeri is done. Lukas should stop on and retire her before he destroys her reputation. She was an outstanding filly, but she couldn\'t beat 2nd string sprinting fillies last time and he threw her to the wolves at less than 100%. What the hell are these guys thinking?
Post Edited (05-31-04 20:44)
In my 20 year handicapping career, the Met Mile is one race I have never won, and I have bet some really good/fast horses.
This year I was sure that I would get off the schnied as I loved 2 horses: Bowman\'s Band and Strong Hope. I only had $40 to spend and was rushing from Meadowlands to Philly Park to bet $20 win on BB and $20 Exacta SH/BB. Thank God I got stuck in traffic!
Lucked out and overcame innate stupidity. Keyed BB and caught exacta, tri & super. Left wondering if the top two hit a little earlier what might have been but am reminded by wife if Pigs had Wings they could fly or at least would have provided a more substantial meal for most softball players. BTW Hollywood seems to be sporting a pretty giant rail as I type this.
I think I had too much going on to handicap the Met well. With what looked to be so many viable horses I dumped the second place finisher on a \"creative eliminator\". It was just a confusing race for me. I never got a strong feeling but I wanted to bet it because its the Met.
Class was probably right about the rail not being a factor.
I suspected Azeri might not handle the surface and pace scenario and I don\'t think she did. I still had her in bets...lol But I agree with Silver, Lukas should put her away before something bad happens to her or the Paulsons give her to Baffert and he makes Lukas look really bad.
:)
CtC
I don\'t think she\'s necessarily done. It may just be that one turn and/or rating is not her game. She certainly ran big in the Apple Blossom.
I thought she was a play-against at 6/1 yesterday, but I give Michael Paulson credit for taking a shot. If she had won, it would have been a great story, and when owners try to push the envelope with good horses, it makes for good betting races.
Paulson can\'t breed her until next spring anyway, so as long as she\'s sound, why not give her a chance to win the older distaff championship for the third year in a row?
Azeri was set up to fail, taken out of her best game, front running routing, to run against the best sprinters in the world.
I can believe she was bet down to 5/1. Just goes to show you name recognition always adds value.
Her next race will probably be in 7 days in the ogden phipps. lukas wants that record.