This is what the talking heads would refer to as a great betting race, because it is so wide open. As for myself, I need to come up with an opinion. I'm hoping that writing this will help.
Anything I come up with will be subject to seeing how the track is playing. I don't generally play Parx. I've seen it be very speed-favoring (e.g., Bayern's year), but I've also seen it where the jocks avoid the rail like death.
Awesome Slew – Moved forward last time, clearing from the outside and getting loose on the lead. Was 2d-time blinkers. Doesn't seem like a need-the-lead type. Still a bit slow, but rail trip could be coming. Carries 122 this time. Morning line of 10-1 seems about fair.
Exaggerator – Big bounce in Travers off new top in slop in Haskell. Now has had more time to recover. Co-highweight. Co-fastest with Summer Revolution after adjusting for weights, but could face ground loss circling big field. Seems a little short at morning line of 9-2.
Summer Revolution – Co-fastest with Exaggerator after adjusting for weights, but top came sprinting and was followed by a bounce in the King's Bishop last time. Castellano defects to stay with Chad Brown, but Mike Smith climbs aboard. Well-posted. Alan gave this one out on the radio.
Connect – Not particularly fast. Off race last time in Travers, with sub-optimal trip. Given connections, seems unlikely to be value.
Cupid - Was the TG poster boy for slow overbet horses in the spring, but last two have been fast. Could be on the lead if, as O'Neill has suggested, Nyquist sits off the pace. Not quite as fast as fastest, but with saving ground is competitive with those. Need to see how track is playing, but if speed is holding, I think he's the most likely winner.
Wild About Deb – Gets in light, but still a little slow. Preciado?
Gun Runner - Moved forward to a competitive fig in the Travers. Has shown ability to get ground-saving trips. Contender, but seems likely to be overbet.
My Man Sam – Gets in light, but top is slow and two much-slower races in last three.
Nyquist – Co-highweight. Weight-adjusted top is a bit slower than fastest. If rated as O'Neill has suggested, ground loss could be substantial, as in 2014 BC Juvenile. Nyquist has run well off long breaks in the past. What was O\'Neill doing with him at San Luis Rey?
Sunny Ridge - Seems a little slow in here. Has had enough time that a forward move could be coming, but Haskell seems like it was the main target. Oddly spaced works after Haskell. Servis is dangerous at Parx, but post could lead to ground loss, and gives 5 poinds to some.
Discreet Lover – In light, but slow.
Hit It Once More – Weight-adjusted top is a little slow. Could be competitive with a small forward move if the top ones don't fire. Price could be huge.
Comments welcome.
Hit it Once more is interesting. I hate the post but feel like a top could be coming. I\'ll use this one at a price.
Don\'t know what to do with the 10? I liked this horse over the winter and then he sort of faded into obscurity for the last ~ 6 months. I feel like he\'ll have the pace to close into, but probably be up against a speed bias today. (looking for confirmation that the rail is the place to be)
Trainer does well here, Sunny Ridge coming in, top - pair - pair, forward move makes him competitive, I think he\'ll be on some of my tix as well.
I\'ll use the above w/ some 1,3,5,7.(speed & Gun Runner). Heavier on Cupid and Gun Runner, but I can\'t completely ignore inside speed today.
I don\'t like either of triple crown race winners today, at least not on top. (Maybe use as \"saver\" type plays only?) As of now I\'m willing to let Nyquist and Exaggerator beat me if either ends up in the winners circle.
Grade 1
And I\'m going to take a shot with Cathryn Sophia, she\'s ran faster than Songbird ever has 3 times, once coming over today\'s strip. Hopefully Carina Mia softens the 5 up a bit, and the distance is right for CS. If she runs back to her top she should have a big shot, imo.
Gallant Bob- TG & DRF have different posts listed?(I\'m still at the house, so not sure) but I like the \"bear\" over the \"biscuits\" along w Hollendorfer on the outside