Interesting little race for sure, though not an easy one to resolve. I agree with a lot of what is written here, and also with the strategy to attack one of the pricier options. However, I wouldn\'t be so fast to write off Button Down here, which is my pick at 16/1 (bet already placed at fixed odds).
Started progressing at about this time last year including 3 good races in a row at Woodbine, culminating in a big win and number at Churchill Downs in november (perhaps the figure is somewhat \"ground loaded\", but in any case it was a very strong performance and surely a life top). As they say in the ROTW, this horse was very lightly raced as a 2yo and as many of those this one too is a late bloomer. Where I differ with the ROTW is in what I think she can do tomorrow, and I certainly do not think that 15/1 (ML that ROTW is based on) is a tough bet to take on her delivering top form tomorrow. Everything went wrong last time out, it got crowded, she was shuffled back, tried to build momentum again but once again ran into trouble; I haven\'t seen many horses able to deliver their best under such circumstances in my life. For me, she\'s excused, and when you excuse a horse that still ran a 5 3/4 with a 2 to run back to on her best form, that very well may still be improving, and whom gets about 2 points in weight from the toughest competitors, AND pays 16/1, it\'s interesting. I do think the race shapes are a little bit deceiving for this race, I\'m not sure Camp Creek will be that forwardly placed. The way I read this Button Down will be able to get a much more comfortable inside, stalking trip compared to last time and if she has the legs for it and better racing luck now she could get first run of the win contenders here and hopefully steal a couple of lengths from the strongest closers by being 1w1w. I would like her even better if it was a furlong or two shorter maybe, but at 16/1 you can afford to take your chances.
Interesting read on Button Down, and certainly won\'t try to talk you off him at 16-1. Agree that if he can get back to his top he would be dangerous here but having a hard time giving him a pass on all 4 of his races this year.
Big blue kitten looks tough here, although not crazy about the running style. Also think Majeed is interesting, although the short rest and long flight scares me a little. If you adjust his euro numbers for slow pace, account for first lasix and the weight advantage its puts him right there. Finally, agree with the pizza man being good value at the ml. Will use those three and to a lesser extent world approval, although think he is very beatable.
re: the filly Button Down first I thought Bet Twice was being very polite, choosing terms like interesting while I was leaning toward a John McEnroe kind of comment. But on second and third takes I can barely imagine her getting back to her fast #\'s which in my view makes her a contender for a minor award. Too much Dusty Springfield for me. Good Luck Pete.
I agree with Bet Twice\'s interest in the Majeed. 15/1 on a horse that could jump up a point or two with lasix. Other than the trip to Dubai the horse has always run competitively. This is a big step up the connections probably know what they\'re doing.
It\'s almost sad that the race has two from Chad Brown\'s stable. On one hand they\'ll take a lot of money creating an opportunity while at the same time almost certain it will take a special effort to beat them. For reasons I don\'t yet fully understand.
Contrary to Bet Twice I think the race sets up for World Approval. Supposing Danish Dynaformer keeps company and there\'s the exacta in my view.
I can understand the value in the Pizza Man @ the morning line. Except his last three races make me think he\'s in his twilight. The figures are good because he lost so much ground. So picture him with a ground saving trip while bumping along with the two Brownies then that group trying to get past the mid pack pack and the last turn top of the stretch has plenty of traffic.
To the contrary The Pizza Man may deliver. A case can be made that his last three were not all that important and the BC Turf is the target. His morning training has been sharp, his new pilot could ride him very differently. The m/l could hold up and he\'s won vs better. In the end I expect he\'ll do what he\'s been doing lately.
Good luck playing anything in a turf stakes race where Chad has at least one and your play is not one of them. I don\'t understand it either, but I have a few theories.
I would rather try to beat Tepin since there are no brownies in there. Mott looks interesting with the cut back to a one turner and getting 4 from the chalk. Took Full Mast there earlier in the summer perhaps for several reasons.
Mutakayyef will most likely end up the wise guy horse to beat her at 3-1----no thank you.
Good Luck,
Joe B
I am betting Camp Creek to end up on the tickets. Horse has never bounced. Only was getting lasix his last two, only getting turf his last two. A pair up of his last at the weights makes him competitive. The horse could move forward given that he has never bounced and only has two races so far with lasix and on turf. Jock and trainer combination are sure to guarantee a good price. I might be wrong, but I do not have to be right a lot to make a difference at the price he is likely to be. I am forgiven the bore in as a first time marathon issue. Today is second time marathon. Jockey is making the 112. I believe weight is one of the great overlooked handicapping factors. This horse is getting 14 lbs and 11 lbs from the main contenders. Yes he is a three year old, but it is September, and he is lightly raced and showing signs of continuing development.
i agree. if camp pairs which is possible getting 2-3 points in weight puts him right there. He may bounce or may not run as good as his last race but certainly the play at the price in my opinion.
An improving 3 year old winning at the same distance over this track last out coming in light with a nice pattern.
Will take a shot with a exacta
5-3/4/6/8
Good luck to all
Oh well, if you hit congrats
Good call in the ROTW-analysis!
I\'ll second that! Smart
When the Pizza Man opened @ 3/1 I didn\'t know what to think and then he drifted up. Crowd influence maneuvers or just happenstance.?
At least two races where the failure of heavily bet Chad Brown horses made for solid wins today. Maybe he\'s not such a villain.
Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'ll second that! Smart
>
> When the Pizza Man opened @ 3/1 I didn\'t know what
> to think and then he drifted up. Crowd influence
> maneuvers or just happenstance.?
>
> At least two races where the failure of heavily
> bet Chad Brown horses made for solid wins today.
> Maybe he\'s not such a villain.
He\'s doing the best he can, so good for him -- but his presence and sustained effectiveness surely makes the day-to-day prospecting skimpier. Fewer nuggets on the ground to be found.