Assumptions revisited.
1. Favorites vulnerable?
2. Jacobson a wild card 3/1?
3. MyLute M/L @10/1....Post time?
4. Tapin Mojo the joke he appears?
5. MyLute\'s w/o pattern.
The analysis is persuasive. If the assumptions hold.
Mylute also seems to like the strip. 3 negative figs in the last 2 years (12 races), all at Belmont.
Interesting pattern from Baccelo - a bit like Exaggerator earlier in the year. 3 straight pair ups, each resulting in a forward move. If he pairs again, he\'s definitely in play.
Comfort: is a very lightly raced 4 year old, if a 3yo had this pattern we\'d all key him in the Derby. But, nobody likes 6/5 (now 1/5, ouch).
Touch of Star Quality: has only ever gone sub-zero once, and the TGI for Mineshaft indicates a return to negative numbers is not so likely. As noted, also not exactly an ironhorse. But, if it can come with another 0, Comfort will need to improve to win, given weight.
Baccelo: spots weight to all, and like the previous two has big layoff gaps in his past, but has raced 7x already this year. Last was a 3.25 point jump from previous lifetime best.
Tapin Mojo: the best thing you can say about this horse is there\'s some chance that all three of the previous horses hurt themselves, given their history, in which case he could hit the board.
Mylute: all previous negative figures have led to big or multi-race regressions, and while (as AJKreider mentioned) his previous bests are all at Belmont, he\'s also had some mediocre/bad ones at the track... I\'m ok with saying he\'s fine at Belmont, but not moved enough to say he\'s a horse-for-course just yet.
At M/L, I don\'t really see any reason to pay takeout here.
Took too long to type, now 18MTP and it\'s 1/5 on Comfort and 7/1 on Baccelo, 5/1 on Touch of Star Quality... I bet Baccelo if this line holds.
1/9! Geez go figure.