On the 40th day thou shall not give back Da Money.
Good luck to those taking a stab at the mandatory pick 6 payout, It\'s a tough sequence unless your going to concede the 1st and 4th legs to Chad. If you do you can then go 6 deep in the other 4 legs without much confidence, that will only run you $2,592. I\'ll be cheering TGJB on as even I couldn\'t convince him into a 2nd drink after the races yesterday as he had Del Mar & Spa pick 6\'s on his mind.
The pick 5 is not much easier as the 7th is an inner dirt event for cripples.
I\'ll take a swing at a weighted Pick 4:
Race 8: Powerful Instinct has the rail, a couple of back numbers to run back to that are good enough and certainly didn\'t expend much energy in his last OP and a snails pace. An underrated John Toscano who is on the Spa duck for the meet. Uncle Sigh runs some good numbers but hates to win, inside with a punchers chance.
Make A Decision turn back to his favorite distance, Jose Ortiz is tough to go against the last week, he needs 4 to tie Ramon for the 40 day record of 68. His aggressive style will get him to the 2 hole by the turn.
The Bernard Baruch: Takeover Target will be a single on all the small pick 4,5 & 6 plays and why not. Chad has pointed him to this spot since June and JV on Ring Weekend will find the 3 and 4 path on both turns, talk about a prop bet!
Take The Stand has the rail, speed, a competitive number to run back to and Reporting Star with the hedge loving Geroux will get a spot at a big price.
Takeover is tough to go against and will get at least 80% of my money on the play.
I\'ll also make a solid vertical play boxing the above 3 in tri\'s and exacta\'s. punching TT on top of them in both bets and making a hefty exacta play over
Take The Stand if its north of $20.
The Hopeful: Practical Joke, Bitumen & Classic Empire are the 3 to use. Practical
will be a saver play as I much prefer the other 2.
Race 11: After 40 days of battle, 30 live, there is no better feeling than hitting the last race. Shug\'s grass horses have run really well at this meet, all of them.
Blenheim Palace has the rail, Jose Ortiz and stretches out for her turf debut. Joanie also stretches out and has a very green dam side pedigree. Dale Romans hasn\'t run many at this meet, the horse was at CD until 2 weeks ago with many upcoming spots at KY Downs, CD and Keeneland. If Prado leaves from a terrible post, this one has a chance at a big number.
3 X 3 X 3 X 3 = $81 for a buck or a few more :)
3 X 1 X 2 X All = $72 for a buck
3 X 1 X 2 X 3 = $18 for a lot of bucks
Good luck to all,
Frank D.
With the scratch of Chase Motto the likely favorite for Chad in the 11th. I\'m adding the 1A Sassy Little Lila making it a 4 horse play in the last.
Race 5
Modern Lady 12-1 - Good Tampa figures, excuses at CD, trainer change to Rice.
Saratiago 30-1 - What\'s a spa meet without a 30-1 PJ Kelly horse? Fastest going in. Can he run back to his AQU figure late last year? I\'ll bite.
Race 8
Hurry Up Alan 12-1 - Fastest horse, been shutting around some sketchy move up trainer\'s barns, rejoins JC Englehart\'s barn who has had a good percentage of winners this meet but overall low percentage turf winners. Gets Castellano.
Dream Doctor 8-1 - Paired last, quick turn around for rare Tim Woolley sighting.
Iced Over 10-1 - Betting a return to last year\'s top for Michael Lauer who has a $2.85 ROI at Saratoga.
More Monday musings
Race 7
Devilish Grin 15-1 - Fastest figure horse, hammered at start in last after long rehab, trainer change to Gullo.
For anyone who has attended a TGAB seminar, Hurry Up Alan is a major hunch play.