someone can tell me if Rosario did everything to win the race, Is not clear if he dropped the whip,
Couple of things. I passed the race for disclosure. There was other legit speed in there. They didn\'t want any part of it so they took back. Why then they didn\'t sit the pocket trip and save ground is confusing to me because he can but people get afraid of being boxed in. At the same time they concede like 1-2 points in ground loss.
Lastly I can be wrong but I will give a horse the benefit of one race off a GIANT # if he had enough rest. But now on a 4 week turnaround maybe that figure is catching up to them. I didn\'t pull the trigger on the race and I was waiting g for the Glens Falls. Rosario rode well yesterday, just not this one. And maybe he still doesn\'t push on for the win with a better trip. There were 4 horses there at the wire...
Given the weight he carried and his wide trip through the second turn, I would not be surprised if Frosted came close to pairing his Whitney fig.
Finally watched the replay, for me, Rosario didnt ride with the best intention or interest to win the race...
Not wanting to pick an argument here. I disagree. It wasn\'t a great ride no doubt but the horse didn\'t want to go by either. The horse lost major ground and gave weight which all adds up but maybe he was telling us something else....
It was a \'reluctant\' performance for sure. all over the track late. wouldn\'t have taken much to go by, and who knows how the track was playing in the 10 path as few are silly enough to test it.
Watching the nyra network, they pretty much ripped Rosario apart,I think it was Migliore who said, if Rosario rode a race like that at aqueduct in the middle of winter the fans would have rioted,The mig was especially hard on Rosario for that ride on Frosted
They also said Frosted doesnt like the whip
Silver,
Perhaps you need to watch the race again. or read the trainer/jockey comments instead of just seeing what you would like to see.
There was no \"take back\" because of other speed. The horse didn\'t break well. The race caller even saw that without a replay. They had no choice.
Rosario didn\'t ride hard in the stretch. That really can\'t be argued with. Even the race caller, in the midst of calling a 10 horse field without a replay benefit, said \"a very confident ride by Rosario\" as he was losing the race.
Agree with our other point, backward move off a tremendous race, back again in 4 weeks, further regression certainly possible and happened. Not a surprise to many, Frank D. and apparently many at the seminar as well.
But there was no plan to take back to avoid speed. Silly stuff.
Kiaran blamed the trip.
Now that said, perhaps Kiaran needs a mirror in his house. Started the meet 7 for 9 or something like that and now for the past 3 weeks his horses are all running X\'s. Young horses, experienced horses, fast horses and not so fast horses. All running awful.
Kiaran McLaughlin may be the streakiest trainer alive.
I get your point, but do you really think the 2nd and 3rd placed horses in the Woodward ran awful? They almost certainly got the two top figures in the race.
AJ,
Frosted ran poorly, relative to his last two races.
TG figures aren\'t performance figures.
Yeah, Frosted may only regress a bit on TG, but blowing the start, then floating very wide on the second turn, while NEVER grabbing the bit the entire backstretch, to lose a close race against slower horses, is a really bad race.
Will he get a ground loss loaded TG figure. Sure.
Does it compare well with his last, when he jumped out the gate, was on the bit all the way around the track, setting a very fast pace, then drawing off.
Nope.
How isn\'t thoro-graph performance figures? It says right there in the top left corner. \"Performance figures\". (To get a horse) Running a big negative number after stumbling out of the gate is not a bad (trainer) performance.
Pete,
A figure that doesn\'t take pace or trip into consideration isn\'t a full performance figure. It is a speed figure.
You want to say fRosted ran as well yesterday as the Whitney, God Bless.
Heard this from either TGAB or TGJB at a seminar years ago, amazing how many horses sitting on a bounce or regression don\'t break well out of the gate.
And YES, Frosted\'s performance yesterday was SURELY part the trainer\'s fault. The horse ran his eyeballs out 2 starts back, then ran almost as well 4 weeks ago. Running this horse back in yesterday\'s race was a bad call. Forget about me saying it, that is red-boarding, but you had TGJB saying it before the race, Frank D. saying it before the race and Jimmy Jerkens basically saying it. (his quote was \"not sure why Frosted was running back so soon, but we figured we had to take a shot).
Now Kiaran put himself in a bad spot. He ran so bad, he may be over the top or if not that, he might not be up to running 1 1/4 against Chrome and others. He may back off now and go for the BC Mile or no BC Race and the Cigar Mile in November.
That is a complete straw man argument, that has nothing to do with what I was saying.
Did Mubtaahij flop too? C\'mon, man.
I wouldn\'t run him in the Classic either. But Kiaran said he\'s been knocking down the stall. He ran the best fig against a solid field.
AJ,
Solid field? That was the worst Woodward since the field Rachel beat.
Mubtahij ran second, his best career win was in Dubai.
Shaman\'s Ghost won a 1 1/2 Brooklyn.
Ugh.
Frosted regressed.
As for Kiaran, have you watched how his fast 3 year old filly has done in her two Saratoga starts (including today). How his last seven 2 year olds have run? (including many who took money).
Ice cold.
You can\'t be using TG Figures?
The whole premise is that they incorporate ground loss (which btw is the trip part of performance figures, while projection might respond to the pace part but I\'m not comfortable speaking about how and when Thoro-Graph actually uses that, as I\'m not quite sure).
It really sounds like you think that all big figures that are earned by being wide on turns are \"ground loaded\", and if so it\'s quite the mystery to me what you are even doing on a forum like this. I can agree with Miff and others that there are races where the ground loss formula can produce figures you should be sceptical about, because you really have to apply it in the same manner in all races if you\'re going to use ground while making figures. This is not the type of race where that applies though, at least not in my opinion, because most of the ground loss Frosted had here was in the last turn, where the pace was high and they\'re not messing about. This is REAL ground loss, and those figures are exactly where Thoro-Graph has its edge over i.e Beyer, which is what I would call a classical speed figure (and really what you should be buying if you don\'t believe in ground, because it\'s cheaper).
Now, I know very well that Kiaran is a streaky fellow, I know that he fared way better earlier in this meet and I too was surprised to see him running Frosted last night. That is all beside the point, though, because that is about horse management. The point now is that Frosted really did run very well last night, he certainly ran better than I would\'ve expected and I do think that Rosario could\'ve pushed harder, earlier, to maybe win this race, all though I\'m not sure. We\'ll never know, but he didn\'t get a good start, he did go very wide when the pace was high, and he really was cruising and looking sure to win at one stage in the stretch. And he did it against horses that deserves a lot more respect than you\'re giving them. I won\'t be surprised if this indeed comes back as a better figure than the figure from the Whitney, and that isn\'t all that surprising either as he gave it all yesterday, while he might have had something left in the tank in the Whitney.
Now where all this puts Frosted in the Breeders Cup is beyond me at this point, and I won\'t even begin to speculate about that. His pattern won\'t look all that pretty, but I do think Frosted has proved two times now that the insane number three starts back wasn\'t a fluke. This horse can run.
Pete,
Don\'t tell me what figures I should be using. I am well aware of what a TG figure is and what it isn\'t. Sounds like u don\'t. That, combined with u thinking frosted ran well yesterday only make me wish I could book your horse bets.
U must have made a fortune in the Woodward if a weak 3rd was much better than u expected from Frosted.
When there are 4 horses on the wire together it is a sign the race was slow. Frosted want spotting that much weight and he got beat by a couple horses whose top was 0.
Mubtahij had a top of 0. Finished basically on the wire with frosted while 3 or 4 wide on the first turn and 4 wide on the second turn. So wider than frosted, by a path or so overall, as frosted was near the rail first turn. He got 6 lbs from frosted.
If u pair up Mubtahj, what does that give frosted a 0 or negative 1? Which was worse than that on the track. Off the pace he should have some turn of foot or punch late, but didn\'t.
Jim
If you have Mubtaahij 8 wide in total last night I better understand your complete rejection of ground loss in figure making ;)