The Met Mile looks to be shaping up as a very interesting race. At 119 pounds, Strong Hope will be the co-highweight in the Met along with Pico Central. The race also includes Funny Cide (118), Azeri (117), Gygistar (115), Mobil (115), Bowman\'s Band (114), Eye of the Tiger (114), and Saarland (113). I figure there should be some decent value. Any early thoughts.
Bowman\'s Band.
Exacta with Strong Hope.
ronwar--
When run over a fast track,the Met Mile is usually won on or just off of the pace regardless of how demanding.
That being said, who has the best numbers while attending the early pace? I don\'t see the value unless someone storms from out of the clouds at a price to complete the exacta.
I say STRONG HOPE stays the mile and maybe we get EYE OF THE TIGER or SAARLAND closing for second.
I\'m not touching this one since I\'ll be rooting (not wagering on) FUNNY CIDE.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Theres some good horses in it. Still need to review pace and current form but my initial thought might be in line with the others here. No one has given Azeri a call. I wonder if she\'s gonna be able to pick them up because I dont think she\'s gonna be on the lead.
Met Mile is one of my favorite races, maybe my favorite, and often falls on my birthday (also Joe Namath\'s and Clint Eastwood\'s), like this year. I\'m going to do it for ROTW, and it is a very good betting race.
And the old dog Eastwood has the best knees of the three of ya.
Well Happy Birthday Jerry...
heres to hoping u get ur met mile wish! I\'ll definitely tune in for T-Graphs perspective on the race. Maybe we shuld make this one a very public consideration to try and ensure Jerry gets his birthday gift. :) Not that he needs our insight...lol
My last big met mile was Exciting Story. I don\'t think I\'ve done well on the race since then.
Yeah, I had everything when the Canadian horse won-- win, exacta, tri. That was a good one.
Happy birthday TGJB. Just remember-you\'re not getting older, your getting....on 2d thought you\'re just getting older. Love and kisses. Resnik
Jeez, if I knew everybody was gonna make a fuss I would never have brought it up. I stopped celebrating them a while back-- when the day comes I keep to myself and start drinking early and often.
But I don\'t start until after all the stakes have been run.
And I thought it was cool that I shared a birthday with Jimi Hendrix (Nov 27). Wake up to Voodoo Child once a year.............and a few other things.
TGJB,
Happy Birthday and I second that thought on the Met Mile being one of my favorites. Never been a successful betting spot for me but it seems like it was the kick start for summer racing in New York.
Remember Garthorn always been one of my favorite names.
As far as Azeri goes, well who knows but there is a little history with Lukas, Day and a Filly. They ran Ladys Secret in it several years back and she almost pulled it off. She didn\'t get collared until real late with Day \"goosing\" her all the way down the lane.
Be curious your extrapolation of Azeri\'s regular numbers with the weights at say 127 and now when she drops down to 117. If she were to run her regular NEG 1 (with 127)won\'t she be running, from a timewise point of view, a little faster all other things being equal (ie-ground loss, variants). So it might be like a NEG 3 because of the 10 pound drop in weights. I get dizzy thinking about it.
One final note JB, you are still THE MAN, always have and always will be.
Happy Birthday.
Appreciate the compliment, but I\'m still going to sentence you to listening to the intro seminar again. The weight for previous races is already factored into the figure-- all you have to concern yourself with is the amount of weight spotted or received today. I have to say, over the years this is the concept that has proven the hardest to explain. And obviously we haven\'t done a good enough job.
Happy Birthday Jerry and thanks to you, the Belmont P4 Friday paid a rediculously high $2,174.00!! Rouge was a mortal lock at even money, and Thunder showed the highest route figure (made a nice win bet to boot). Used the 3 fav\'s in the 2nd leg and the 2,3,13, 14 in the last. A rare trip to the track (for betting purposes)today coupled with Mr O\'Brien on Preakness card has turned out to make my year(so far). Cheers!
TGJB,
I haven\'t had any trouble undertanding the concept of how you handle weight, but I am curious as to what weight you use as the \"base weight\" for calculating your figures. (assuming that\'s how you do it)
For Example:
Suppose we have two races at 6F where the final time was identical and they ended in photo finishes (all else was exactly equal).
In race 1, the competitors carried 126 and 121.
In race 2, the competitors carried 111 and 106.
Is there some base poundage (like 116 for example) that you start with that you then adjust the speed figure up or down from to account for varied weights carried when you make the figures?
That would make the 126 best, 121 second best etc...
So if they all raced again at the same weights as last time, they would again look equal at the weights.
If they all come in at level weights, the guy that carried 126 last time would correctly look best.
I think they start with 115lbs
Yes, we have the computer start at 115, but it could use any weight and go plus/minus. I only did a fast read but it looks like you have it right, and interestingly enough this ties into the Time Form question-- they do things very differently, using the scale of weights. It\'s a mess, and you have to pull out all kinds of things to back into a figure in our terms. They also have some weight and beaten length issues.
Listened to the Introduction Seminar and got myself all straightened out regarding the weight loss calculation. Very prescient incident happened that very day when I was looking for some old rules and regulation publications I actually came across one of the old Introductory cassette\'s. My first dealings with TG. No bull.
I\'m thinking of selling it on E-Bay to get back the money I lost for \"Tossing Smarty on All Tickets\" on Derby Day.
Is Azeri an O-2-X ??
Interesting comments by Lukas in the Grening article about Day going to give Azeri a \"Sit-Still\" Ride. The Sit-Still ride of all-time was the one he gave Smarty\'s poppa Elusive Quality in the GP Hdcp. Talk about High Definition Memory of an event.
One final note I was sentenced to listening to the Intro Audio for a question about weight calculations. Was it for my question or something else ????
Intro Audio?
I knew of weight for years, but never really factored it into lengths until T-Graphs video cassette. I think I lost it though. I moved and tossed out a lot of old material I had. Reams of classic Racing Forms and Racing Times. What are you gonna do with them?...lol
The weight is simple. Any adjustments for lengths gained or lost are only on those changes for the race under consideration. At two turns 5 pounds is two lengths, two lengths is a T-point. In the Met five pounds is prolly closer to 1.5 lengths which is close to a T-point. Whatever it is precisely is Jerry\'s secret.
Bowman's Band-Has been a good horse in the Jerkens barn. You could argue he is cycling back to his "Hal's Hope" negative 2. His first negative 2 for Jerkins was the Meadowlands Cup. In that race he carried 5 more pounds. He threw a very nice workout in May 29th. (fast but not taxing). He looks set to pop back to his best. The rail and how fast the others run appear to be the serious issues. (projected figure –2 or faster)
Eye of the Tiger – Ran substantially faster first out last for new trainer, finished within sight of the top two but appears to have had a clean trip. Will have to improve to factor.
Azeri-To my eye weight off and a nice tracking position behind Strong Hope and Pico Central are her strongest factors. On weight I factor her to run as fast as a –2.5 to –3 if she's at her best. She appears to be set for a stalking trip. (second flight, on the rail) The questions are her affinity for Belmont and is she as good on sandy type going. Note she did not win at Churchill last. I'd have preferred to see a work at the track, though Lukas rarely operates that way. I rate her pace position "ideal".
Saarland-To my mind, is coming up to this race as he did to the '03 Met Mile. It was a good race at a Zed. But he'll have to be significantly faster Monday.
Gygistar-My hunch is he is going to run his race Monday and that's 2 T-points faster than Saarland. He is in better form this time than he has ever been. His races are tightly spaced and tightly grouped figure wise. His previous negative 1.2's knocked him out. The first one they knew he was done and they gave him time. The second one he cranked out off a layoff and it set him back. This time Gig has done it the right way. He was making up ground on Strong Hope in the Carter. Eye of the Tiger slipped up the rail on him. If he doesn't bounce he could run his best race. Loves Belmont(Projected Fig –2 )
Strong Hope-paired –3.3's say he's the horse to beat. He's shown the stamina to win longer and its 4 + points faster than last year. The loss of ground late in the Carter was a little disconcerting. He's been at his best on the lead and with having been forced to run wide last and his nemesis on the outside of him I think they will send him and make Pico take the longer route this time. My concern is that those sprint –3.3's are not gonna equate to Hope equaling that figure at 8 marks under duress, though I can't help but think of the Pletcher rocket that won this race a couple years ago. That horse died from Colic and I can't remember its name. Loves Belmont
Mobil-I can't see this horse as a serious factor
Pico Central-When this horse came back against Strong Hope to deny him I think it revealed a lot about him. He's not only fast T-Graph. He's fast on others as well. However that top last was certainly under some pressure. This time he picks up 2 lbs and takes the slightly longer route. Will that be enough to deny him? Will he bounce?
Funny Cide-Tagg has been threatening to shorten this horse up for some time. Well today he gets his wish. Working well and well rested. He should get a nice stalkin spot off one path wide off Azeri. Projected figure –2. Loves Belmont
Biases and Selections to follow
Maybe he won it the following year because the first go around he got Swept Overboard.
At 10-1, cha-ching.
exacta will be strong hope and pico, they are the only 2 horses that can sustain the high level pace throughout the race. also they are the fastest horses in the race
tomm
I make Strong Hope the favorite in here.
He showed a lot of potential last year as a middle distance horse. He\'s come back great and IMO might have an even better race in him.
I think he can turn the tables on Pico Central who is also a major contender and the potential early leader in what could be a quick pace.
I thought the track for the Carter was a little speed favoring. I believe Pico Central is less likely to repeat that last performance or move forward like Strong Hope.
The one shortcoming for Strong Hope that I see is that he has never passed a horse in the stretch. Generally, he wins on the lead and struggles to hold off other horses. He may not have the lead today and there\'s going to be some good horses running at him late.
I think this couldn\'t possibly be a worse spot for Azeri to debut against colts.
IMO, she\'s the 3rd fastest speed horse - though she can win from just off the pace too. That could be a problem because IMO she runs better on the lead. Plus, her last race was her weakest in years. Given all the rumors about her condition to begin with and Lukas\'s well known tendency to be willing to run horses into the ground, how can you like her?
All that said, IMO, she was a great champion and these are not the best colts in America. At a different time, I think she would match up very well. I don\'t care what the speed figures say, if she\'s 100% (and that\'s a very big if), she might surprise a lot of people here. I just don\'t think she will be 100%. She may not even be 80%.
I always thought Funny Cide would be better as a middle distance horse. He hasn\'t moved forward since his spring 3yo form, but I think it\'s still too soon to say he won\'t ever given how poorly he was handled late last year. I think we might get a peak performance out of him today (not necessarily speed figure wise though), but I\'m not sure he\'ll be sharp enough to stay within striking distance of today\'s hot pace in a one turn mile and then finish well enough to win.
After that, I think you are speculating on a trainer related new peak (Eye of the Tiger), or a speed duel that kills all the other contenders (Gygistar, Bowmans Band), etc...
I\'ll take Strong Hope at 3-1 or higher if I can get it. Other\'s might like him at even lower odds, but I think Funny Cide and Azeri have more of a chance than conventional wise-guy wisdom suggests. I don\'t believe it\'s all sucker money being bet on them. I also am a little skeptical of Strong Hope\'s ability to either get the lead in a comfortable enough pace or rate just off it and still hold off the charge of pressers and closers.
All bets are off if it rains very hard or a bias seems to be developing due to moisture.
Post Edited (05-31-04 15:16)
Great race! Pico is a nice horse, and the trainer is flat-out amazing...might be the best trainer that most players hardly even know about.