Weather forecast this week looks good for a dry track. Dry and low 80\'s for Saturday.
14 possible. On a dry track and on first look I think there are 3 that can win it (Gun Runner,Gov.Malibu,Gift Box)---but will wait for the draw and the seminar for any final conclusions.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Joe B.
I realize you put a caveat out there saying you wanted to see the draw but curious as to why you would short list the ones you did? (translation - makes no sense to me! Which, the way my Saratoga meet has gone, means you are likely to win....)
My initial thoughts:
There is a pretty long history of horses running big figures and races at the Haskell and then shipping to the Spa and not running as well at a 1 1/4 on the more tiring track. I think there are a few reasons for that - Monmouth generally a glib, speed favoring surface, whereas Saratoga races at 1 1/8 and 1 1/4 require real stamina. Milers can get 1 1/8 at Monmouth whereas they have no shot at the Spa. Plus, the good old \"trip over the track\" thing plays out well.
That said, we are in a different position this year IMO, which complicates matters. By most measures, the Jim Dandy was a horrendous race. Destin was awful with a good trip, Mohaymen stumbled, but certainly ran like a horse that was an early developer and now the cutback to 7 furlongs is a mixed message. Governor Malibu ran OK, but hardly inspiring by my eye. I missed the wedding with Laoban and have no plans to attend the funeral.
so, that leaves two other groups to look at, the Haskell runners and \"other Saratoga preps\" runners.
I have to let Exaggerator beat me. Training poorly at the Spa last month, then gets slop and a hot pace again and jogs in the Haskell. Dry track, 1 1/4, with a come from last ride again on tap, and he figures 2-1 or so. Pass for me, but clearly understand he can win. (hear he is training better now). American Freedom ran huge in the Haskell. I could make a case he was best considering trip and pace. Now he goes 1 1/4 in a race where he looks like he could be tracking Laoban. I have to make him a contender. Gun Runner, one of your possible winners? Off of what? he was my Haskell pick as I have been saying he is better than his slow TG figures. But boy he was awful in the Haskell. I guess he can have the slop mulligan, but I don\'t know, starting to believe he is just slow.
As for the other Saratoga prep horses, I would rather kiss Frank D. than bet on My Man Sam. He ruined my opening weekend, costing me a few grand, when he got a better trip than TGAB\'s \"hopeless longshot\" and he still got run down late. To me, a terrible performance and I couldn\'t use him except maybe 3rd or 4th underneath vertically. Gift Box and Connect are the horses I am most interested in for the Travers. They ran a nice little match race last time with Connect winning but Gift Box was far from disgraced and one could argue with the additional pace expected in the Travers, Gift Box may figure to get a fairer chance and his chances will be enhanced.
Leaning towards playing horizontally using Connect and Gift Box as keys with perhaps American Freedom as a \"B\".
But of course with 14 horses, the draw matters and I haven\'t actually seen figures for either the Haskell or the Connect/Gift Box race and that could influence me (don\'t care what figures the Jim Dandy horses got, can\'t bet any of them, it had all the looks of a bad race to me....)
Good luck,
Jim
Jimbo-- I\'m thinking you might alter some of those thoughts after you see the actual sheets. And after your head explodes. Please don\'t scoop my seminar.
How much do I have to bet on My Man Sam (or anyone else) to see you kiss Frank D.?
As far as I know Gift Box is not going. They draw tonight.
The only kissing of Frank D. by Jimbo will be the part of my anatomy that sits in a backyard lawn chair!!! Besides I\'m going bad enough on my own I don\'t need Eddie
Mush re incarnated to REALLY MUSH ME :)
This is what I get for taking a lunch break! I was enjoying the beautiful day sitting on the deck reading a very nice gift from Belmont 3 over the weekend.
I cannot believe with ALL the racing, gambling, mob and such related topics I\'ve read over the years that I\'ve never read Across The Board.
Thank you Bob, a great way to spend a dark Tuesday with a couple of Vodka\'s in the sun. Cover to cover before diner!
Who\'d have thunk it. Frank D. reading a book... What next? A trip to a museum or an art gallery......
As for TGJB\'s comments about the sheets. Ugh. I am worried.
Although I have to believe I have already hit \"rock bottom\" this meet. Not sure it can get worse....
Disappointing to hear Gift Box not running. thought he had a shot.
Jim
Jim:
Willing to give Gun Runner a pass in the slop. Asmussen made the comment before the race (not after) that he doesn\'t like it. Struggled with it at CD in November.
Agree with your Haskell to Travers note. It\'s a long list. A 1 1/4 at Saratoga is a demanding task which is why I tend to prefer horses that ran well in the Belmont (either on the pace or mid-race movers---not Creator).
Which brings me to Governor Malibu. Don\'t agree with your visual assessment of his Jim Dandy. Mid-race rail move versus no pace and against the bias. That move becomes very dangerous if repeated on Saturday when they will not be going that slow.
Connect enjoyed the bias on the 29th and the water gets deeper for him on Saturday. However he wouldn\'t shock me. My Man Sam would.
TGJB says prob no Gift Box. That brings me down to 2.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Is that the one by Zito? (Anthony not Nick!!)
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jimbo-- I\'m thinking you might alter some of those
> thoughts after you see the actual sheets. And
> after your head explodes. Please don\'t scoop my
> seminar.
>
> How much do I have to bet on My Man Sam (or anyone
> else) to see you kiss Frank D.?
>
> As far as I know Gift Box is not going. They draw
> tonight.
JB,
Whats the cost of the seminar and sheets??
Heading out to GGF with a couple buddies. Its not Saratoga, but its live racing.
One thing we don\'t have to worry about out here is rain. You guys should really appreciate that you get rain. I know it sucks at times for racing, but I can guarantee your lawn is greener than mine. Wildfires, reservoirs at an all time low. Its not good.
You guys sound really douc.......bad complaining about it.
Hopefully I can\'t hear the race calls Saturday. She is so bad. Kinda like someone singing Karaoke, but can\'t actually sing.
The only thing worse would be watching an A\'s game, and she is doing the play by play. Unwatchable and unlistenable. Welcome to my baseball world.
Football can\'t start soon enough. Regular season football.
Looking forward to the seminar and as much discussion as possible without giving away the info.
Joe B.,
Sorry to say I\'d much rather get my weather from the experts especially since I\'ve packed all three collared shirts I own for the trip to the Spa.
I\'m hoping the weather team of Richard, Franklin, and James, LLP (richiebee, FrankD., jimbo66) can provide the most up to date \'cast with an hour by hour display.
I haven\'t seen them listed in the recent articles but are Mo Tom or Brody\'s Cause still at all possible for the Travers?
FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The only kissing of Frank D. by Jimbo will be the
> part of my anatomy that sits in a backyard lawn
> chair!!! Besides I\'m going bad enough on my own I
> don\'t need Eddie
> Mush re incarnated to REALLY MUSH ME :)
>
> This is what I get for taking a lunch break! I was
> enjoying the beautiful day sitting on the deck
> reading a very nice gift from Belmont 3 over the
> weekend.
> I cannot believe with ALL the racing, gambling,
> mob and such related topics I\'ve read over the
> years that I\'ve never read Across The Board.
>
I\'ve only been shilling for that book ad nauseum for 4+ years in the backyard, Frank.
Glad you\'re enjoying it. There are enough great one-liners in there to employ for a lifetime.
-- \"This is from dead weight\"
-- Frank Erickson
Seminar and sheets 25 each, both for 40. Email going out in an hour or so.
Fair,
No on both Mo and Brody.
Joe B. is spot on, going to be beautiful. Only hint of rain is Thursday night into Friday morning. No umbrella needed with your collars, you have one more than Rocky does!
JB,
Will there be a live seminar this Saturday to discuss the other races?
Thanks,
George
Topcat Wrote:
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> I\'ve only been shilling for that book ad nauseum
> for 4+ years in the backyard, Frank.
Jerry thought enough of the book to give it an esteemed spot in the Figure Making and Handicapping Discussions section of the Archives: History Lesson 2 (https://www.thorograph.com/archive/history%20lesson%202.html)
Hard to believe performance figure-making, including parallel time charts, track variants, changing track speed (moisture), weight, wind and ground loss has been around since before the 50\'s, but didn\'t become mainstream (arguably) until what, the late 80\'s or 90\'s?
Ha - you beat me to the punch!!!
Topcat, Your shilling most successful, just got my copy from Amazon two weeks ago.
The discussion group, led by Alan, will start at 9:30 at Siros. I will go over the seven stakes in the online seminar.
Rocky, way before the 50\'s, see History Lesson I. At least the late 1920\'s.
anybody have an extra clubhouse admission ticket for sale?
edit: all set folks. good people around here .....
I have an extra grandstand admission ticket (not clubhouse). If you are interested, pm me.
Frank...100% correct on Saturday\'s Saratoga weather... absolutely beautiful day, low 80\'s... for those interested (particularly those who live in South FL) it is looking more and more likely for a major hurricane late Sunday/early Monday... conditions more than favorable for a rapidly developing event...after Monday, all bets are off as to where it goes...could continue west and slam into Louisiana (just what those folks need!) or could turn up the east coast mid-next week...I\'m not being an alarmist...but is definitely worth keeping eyes on...John
trackjohn Wrote:
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> Is that the one by Zito? (Anthony not Nick!!)
You know it be . . . ;-)
Mathcapper Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Topcat Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I\'ve only been shilling for that book ad
> nauseum
> > for 4+ years in the backyard, Frank.
>
> Jerry thought enough of the book to give it an
> esteemed spot in the Figure Making and
> Handicapping Discussions section of the Archives:
> History Lesson 2
>
> Hard to believe performance figure-making,
> including parallel time charts, track variants,
> changing track speed (moisture), weight, wind and
> ground loss has been around since before the 50\'s,
> but didn\'t become mainstream (arguably) until
> what, the late 80\'s or 90\'s?
Sometimes it takes a while for the better idea to break through, but when it does, it does, in a hurry . . .
paniolo Wrote:
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> Topcat, Your shilling most successful, just got my
> copy from Amazon two weeks ago.
Hope you\'re enjoying it!