Force The Pass finally breaks through. Will key on top.
Not a fan of Tourist in the win hole as he appears to be the courteous type. King Kreesa and Grand Arch are two formidable veterans who may get underneath in the 3 hole.
Reporting Star and Blacktype --not with these. Ring Weekend to me is a huge ? ---have no idea what he\'s going to do tomorrow.
As for the Chads---prefer \"A Lot\" to TT but will protect with both since Chad is such a great trainer (tongue in cheek emoji)
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Agree very strongly with the ROTW analysis this week. Which could be a real curse.
Have to think that the 10-1 ML is pure fantasy of the delusional linemaker the NYRA is employing. Also agree he is still a good bet at 5-1 he is likely to be.
My question is -- why is Irad Ortiz riding King Kreesa instead of this horse? I take great comfort in getting Castellano, but unless there is something else going on, that looks like a really questionable choice of Irad to me.
If the ML were reliable (which it is not), I would think that Reporting Star is a good use underneath in the deep exotics. Assuming he goes off at his usual price in G1s (avg off is 14.50-1), he is still quite usable underneath, but not nearly as sexy as at 20-1 or higher.
Although I think A Lot is the strongest horse in the race and doesn\'t need the help, I also view both Tourist and Ring Weekend as quite suspect.
Tourist\'s top two figs obviously would make him extremely tough, but he also ran those figs specifically second and third time off a layoff and wasn\'t able to replicate. Not a good recipe for today. Maybe the extra spacing was an attempt to avoid the bounce, but sometimes you just can\'t get around it.
As to Ring Weekend, he went wide both turns on a big dead rail day. What I wonder is -- shouldn\'t that fig have been better? Last time off the layoff, he ran a huge fig, won, and needed a year in between races. This time off the layoff, he ran a big fig (but 2 points off the last one) and was only able to run second on a day when he had everything his way given the dead rail and is now trying to come back on much less rest (but maybe enough). I think there is just as good a chance that he bounces than that he can pair up his last fig. Pairing up his last fig (which I think is more likely than moving forward) is not going to be good enough to beat A Lot.
If the ML is correct and Tourist and Ring Weekend take a lot of money and are favorite and second choice, there should be rich ways to hook up A Lot.
Dave Grening mentioned in one of his DRF videos with Mike Welsch that he had heard from Alan Goldberg that Force The Pass came out of the Forbidden Apple with a bit of an infection. Grening was inclined to upgrade him based on that news (saying he had an excuse for losing). I suppose it could also cut the other way (is he fully recovered?).
AARGH....race decimated by scratches.....no way to play deep exotics in a 6 horse field....A LOT will be A LOT lower than ML, but idiot is saved by field scratching down from 9 horses to 6 horses, so he has an excuse now for the bad line.
My key plan is keying A Lot, a lot. Still hoping I can get 7-2 and he will at least be third choice.
For me it\'s kinda hard to see past Tourist here and specially if the final odds reflects the prices that are offered right now. The 1 week extra should do good, and this type looks to be improving now that it\'s 5. Best horse in the field. A Lot is good and should do fine here, if not the extra week has \"messed up the magic\" in some kinda way. Still, I don\'t like betting these sprinters stretching out, and don\'t think there is any automaticity in that it would work now just because he managed the extra distance last year. Still, CB is on fire to put it mildly so my bet is Tourist to win and the exacta over A Lot, with half the exacta stake in the reverse order with A Lot over Tourist. Good luck!
Nice call Pete!
Cheers!
A Lot was the best hrs in that race , obvious foul ,but never coming down
So what\'s your stone cold exacta for the Pacific Classic? Lol:)