A hapless looking long-shot winning one of the Saturday stakes? Laoban last week, Paola Queen this week.
Sidebar: was watching the Test at a family reunion. I needed the five badly and felt good about a hundred yards out, but it went the way it did. When it ended, the daughter of one of my cousins watching with us starts screaming, \"Daddy, my horse won!\"
He looked at me like he was gonna puke.
You accidentally booked that one, didn\'t you? I asked.
She was the prom queen her senior year, he said with a grim smile. They brought dinner out, I got distracted...
I didn\'t have the heart to ask him how much she had on it.
I had Paola on my horses to watch, had the exacta. Sorry to add more misery, but this horse just ran a slight new top a few races back.
HEATHJERK,
DID YOU REALLY THINK YOU COULD MAKE SUCH AN IDIOTIC POST RACE COMMENT OF
\"I HAD THE EXACTA\" WITHOUT GETTING A REDBOARD SLAP?
WTF DO THEY CONTINUE TO COME FROM!!!
heatherk Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I had Paola on my horses to watch, had the exacta.
> Sorry to add more misery, but this horse just ran
> a slight new top a few races back.
You\'re joking with this post, right??
Good Luck,
Joe B
Calm down Frank. You have to realize if Heatherk had posted this BEFORE the race,
T-Generates everywhere would have knocked this 55/1 shot down to what?, 25/1,
based on a new top a couple of races back? A new top that wouldn\'t even make this one borderline competitive?
A GRADE 1 Redboard. Congrats HeatherjerK. You just topped Chasshole\'s Laoban
redboard for redboard of the meet and year. And you possibly (based on the \"new
top\" BS) topped last year\'s epic \"Thanks TG\" redboard on a $400+ winner at
Belterra.
The TG board is choked with kudzu; goats needed.
You guys must all have the middle name of TRUMP.
Heath
This is a handicapping board...more specifically a TGraph board...if folks have an opinion on a # or a pattern we need to hear/discuss it before not after...I know at least 4 on this board (including myself) who needed the 5 in that race for rolling P-3\'s and the Pick-4 ALL of which we will have hit if your #1 horse didn\'t win... that is one of the reasons why Red-boarding is THE worse thing that most of us loath on this board...if the opinion was shared prior it is quite likely that some of us would have looked more closely at the 1
Wasn\'t the daughter of one of your cousins a redboarder?
Why don\'t we avoid the Christmas rush and start hating him now? Capt. BJ Honeicutt
It\'s not the redboarding that\'s annoying, its the 75 losers we didn\'t get to hear before the random winner.
Regarding red boarding rules, are you only allowed to red board your losers? Just asking.
Sounds to me like red board rage is nothing more than sour grapes.
Dear Mr. Bee,
Since I am the man you referred to on the Beterra $400 + winner, it was actually at Mahoning or Mohayman or whatever it was and not Belterra, but hey, accidents happen.
I do enjoy your excellent commentary and certainly hope you have a great meet. By the way, that $416 winner plus exacta on 12/27 didn\'t make it till 1/1.
Al B. Tross
No Jerry, not sour grapes, jealousy.
Because even after the race, I still would have a hard time coming up with this one.
AL:
Good to hear from you. I have been pondering upon whether a redboard on a $110 horse
in a graded stake at Saratoga is more glorious than a redboard on a $400+ horse at a
leaky roof in Ohio.
The track names in Ohio always get me confused, but not as confused as by the fact
that racing remains viable in the Buckeye state yet on the respirator in two states
with a lot of racing tradition (Illinois and NJ). Monmouth\'s barn area is apparently
one-third empty, and both thoroughbred and standardbred racing in NJ need a
favorable outcome in a November referendum to survive.
That\'s AL I got. Hope your next $400 mutuel (hell, even if its a trifecta) is just
around the corner.
Red-boarding is for very small people, who have nothing good going on in their lives and feel the need to pat themselves on the back AFTER a race is over by posting a congratulatory superfluous post.
Also, red-boarders are extremely likely to have VERY TINY HANDS like the republican presidential nominee....
Lol! Thanks. That\'s good!
Well some of us are just like that Jimbo. We can\'t help it. We were born that way.
BTW, DJT does have weirdly small hands, doesn\'t he? Maybe Rubio was on to something. But if you check the line on his manhood at PaddyPower, you can get good odds if you think there\'s a correlation.
It continues to amaze me HOW on a board that exists for discussions on performance figures, handicapping angles and coherent opinions on big races that the only topics that seem to draw responses from the masses contain none of the above?
Donald Trump, slot machine take outs, jockey nick names, going to the track alone and red boarders seem to be the topics the mob loves to discuss. While the handful of posters that take the time to break a race or betting sequence down and provide
their version of a valid reason why barely get a response?
Nail on the head!
I find today\'s card one of the most interesting of the meet. I\'ll be trying to turn major plays in the 4th & 8th races into a big $ day.
4th race: 1 or 2 first time starters will be overbet (Trade Zone and possibly Mo Bourbon too) but the 2 horses that I find appealing are my top pick #8 Basic Hero (10/1 ML) and 1st time Rudy #3 Mighty Moses. Basic Hero ran the fastest top in this race as a 2YO last October in the mud at Belmont, had a very weird trip under Dylan Davis in his 3YO return last April: fractious at the gate, stumbling at the start, bumping another horse then rushing up to 4th early before fading to a poor sheet #. After that race he disappeared until June, then started a series of workouts that indicate he\'s going to improve on that top 2YO #. If I can get anywhere near the 10/1 ML I\'ll be celebrating. My backup horse is Mighty Moses who ran the 2nd best top as a 2YO andmakes his 3YO debut going from Baffert to Rudy. Now, unlike Basic Hero, Mighty Moses has not been stellar in the AM for his return, but his relatively fast 2YO races & the fact he faced some of California\'s best 2YOs last year makes it impossible for me to toss him.
5th: I find this race impossible, but with key plays in the 4th & 6th, I\'ll be hitting the ALL button & rooting for a bomb, because the 6th race play will be the odds on favorite.
6th: This race looks like the free square at the end of 1 pick 3 and the beginning of another P3 & P4 with #2 Syndergaard. With 10/1 ML in the 4th & hopes for a bomb in the 5th I\'ll be completing this P3 with a Pletcher 1ster who went for $450,000, has been working like the real deal, and debuts against state breds. If I\'m right on the 4th, and get my bomb in the 5th, the way the P3s have been overlaying the whole meet, I can expect to be rewarded, even with a 1/2 shot winning. I\'ll also be playing it forward with this horse starting P3s & P4s.
7th: I\'ve got the same dilemma as I did with the 4-6 P3. Love the 1st & last legs of the 3 races, don\'t have a clue on the middle race. I\'ll be hitting the ALL button again with 4,5,6,8,10 for twice the units as the rest of the field in my picks.
8th: I love #3 Schivarelli. This is his 3rd race back off an August 2015 to June 2016 layoff. His 1st race was a toss, his 2nd showed improvement and now he\'s ready to get back to the tops he ran last year. That makes him extremely competitive in here. Will be playing exactas with the 6 & 8 and looking to cash another P3 with the hopes of a nice price in the middle juicing up the P3.
9th: I moved to the Albany area in 1988 and there have been 2 constants at Saratoga in the years since. One is obvious-Bill Mott will have a good meet. Some would include Jonathan Sheppard winning a race every year, but my other constant is a guy 10 years older than Mott & me-Roy S. Lerman. Roy is one of my favorite trainers of all time, tossing bombs for decades. Now Roy had some rough Saratoga meets a few years ago, but has been good for a price horse in many of the 28 years I\'ve lived in the Capital region and a few years before I got here. Roy has #1 Abie (20/1 ML) in this race 2nd off the layoff, ran about 1 point off the other tops in this race in his 4YO debut and gets a positive rider change from Dylan Davis to Aaron Gryder. It looks like one of my main themes today is Dylan Davis off. He could complete a good P4 with 2 singles in the 6th & 8th. Final side note: Lerman bred this horse\'s sire Alphabet Soup and must have retained a breeding share when he sold him. When Alphabet Soup won the Breeder\'s Cup, there was a story about Roy Lerman in our local Albany Times Union.
If I\'d have known my post was going to cause a $hitstorm I wouldn\'t have bothered. I figured a mildly amusing anecdote posted in the middle of the night might amuse a handful of readers, I would have put the o/u on comments at one and probably taken the under...
My fear parallels one of my primary concerns within meets of this type . . . the strongest barns are \'WAY too strong, and are elbowing virtually everyone else away from the troughs. The rider \"race\" is no less a problem. Nothing lasts forever, but sincere value-hunters tend to be subject to severe doughts under such conditions.
You brought up the man with tiny hands.
Heatherk actually did mention a forward move when he told of his bet.
As to this board, there\'s tons of talk about why my horse didn\'t win and none permitted about why my horse did win. Personally, I\'d rather listen to a winner talk about why he won than a loser talk about why he lost.
Finally, as to coherent opinions about big races, it amazes me that people spend so much time on big races where the payoffs are typically poor. How much money is blown trying to beat Frosted and the like when there are better betting opportunities in mid level claimers at Gulfstream. Talk about ego and trophy hunting. It\'s just stupid.
They must also have a very small head since a demitasse would fit their head like a sombrero.
jerry Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You brought up the man with tiny hands.
>
> Heatherk actually did mention a forward move when
> he told of his bet.
>
> As to this board, there\'s tons of talk about why
> my horse didn\'t win and none permitted about why
> my horse did win. Personally, I\'d rather listen to
> a winner talk about why he won than a loser talk
> about why he lost.
>
> Finally, as to coherent opinions about big races,
> it amazes me that people spend so much time on big
> races where the payoffs are typically poor. How
> much money is blown trying to beat Frosted and the
> like when there are better betting opportunities
> in mid level claimers at Gulfstream. Talk about
> ego and trophy hunting. It\'s just stupid.
Disagree with that 100% Look at the payouts on Derby day look at the Belmont tri and super look at the breeders cup payouts.
I live for those days.
Good luck
Those races are freaks. The derby\'s a 20 horse field of young 3 year olds who will either top, pair or regress. Good luck. While it is my favorite race to bet I have a long list of Gemologists, Upstarts and too many more names I\'d rather forget that have come in with a \"perfect sheet\" only to run up the track. It\'s a tough race to hit but a fun puzzle to try to solve. I don\'t mind paying for the entertainment. Side note: the 3yo derby prep races generally don\'t offer the same value.
The Belmont is my most profitable race due to the underlays made on fast but burned out horses vs. lesser accomplished horses with fresh legs. Again, aberrant circumstances because of the distance and the timing.
BC is impossible for me. I can box half the field and still miss the exacta. Most horses are fast enough to win on their best day with good trips. Predicting those two variables has never worked well for me. I can spot the bounce candidates and those too slow but that still leaves a basketful of other contenders. Rarely have I made money betting BC card.
The majority of the other stakes races around the country tend to be made up of small, non-competitive fields. Trainers have lots of other places they can run there horses without ding donging with the best in their class.
Another peeve I have with TG is there choice of ROTW. Why choose a feature race that offers no value when you could choose a lesser race with a full and competitive field? Simply as a learning tool it would be more interesting. If you really want to show off your numbers pick a race with a standout overlay. There are plenty to choose from.
Jerry,
I agree with you about the Derby and Belmont.
OTOH the BC has, more often than not, been a very good weekend for me and other TG users, The TG data and analysis is second to none. I\'ve had my share of swing and misses due to the competitive nature of the races, but there is also tremendous value to be had for that very same reason. The TG crew was ALL OVER Texas Red when he aired at 14-1 a couple years ago. There have been several others.
Regarding stakes races, I agree that at times its a bit of a trophy hunt. But they contain top class horses and its fun to talk about those horses.
Frank, I posted all my plays Saturday am, and not ONE reply/post to agree/contest those plays. I share the frustration, but it also served me no good purpose not to come by the backyard and say hi. For that, I apologize. Hope the resto of the meet goes better for all.
Agree. As in any other sport, fans tend to speak more about the games\' stars.
Not all graded stakes can be lumped together when it comes to value. Grade 3\'s provide a significantly better opportunity than 2\'s which are slightly better than 1\'s (especially among older). The Derby and Belmont are exceptions. Young and still developing 3yos inherently provide value/opportunities throughout the year. The Travers will be no exception.
As for the BC, my buddy has a method that has served him well over the years ----- win bets backed by double place (e.g.$200 win,$400 place). Perhaps a better play than exactas, tris, etc. because of the big fields and the inevitable spreading too thin.
To each his own.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
This will be long so be prepared. Funny you mention Il, NJ racing. I grew up and still live close to MTH, and it\'s painful to watch. I have a lifelong friend on the NJRC which at one time was an honor. Just last night we discussed the similarities of AP and MTH. Both have a 1mm race but that\'s about it. I don\'t know much about Il racing but I think MTH could be doing things but is instead waiting to die or hopefully get some new life in November. While spending 7 years in Fl. working on an AA degree in the 77-84 timeframe,I made it to GP,HIA,CRC, AND TP at CRC quite often, with of course the trots, pups and Jai Alai in the Evenings, the summer racing was the pits. Now that King Frank and Co. Have taken control its a different story. The expanded gambling gives them the money for purses, but they have made the purses generate handle. Last Friday GP and MTH both paid out about 250k but GP did 4.5mm vs. MTH 3.35mm. My friend and I broke down some MTH races and their highest purse 51k generated mutual and verticals of 286k and the following race for 13k generated 480k. A man who shall remain nameless, has been in control of the whole deal through MTHs demise over 30 + years, and is collecting a hefty pension from the state and now continuing to sink the ship with its new private ownership. GP is generating more than MTH with extremely low attendance in stifling heat when CRC couldn\'t do a thing. At MTH, they run the business and set up the card like they did before the lottery and AC. The Oakland A\'s couldn\'t do a thing with their payroll until they started Moneyball. I think MTH needs to do something similar, pluck an engineer out of school, pay him 200k to find out where you get your revenue and card races like that. If you have to give 50k to NJ Breds, put the races in right place. We all live in a competitive world and have to change to keep up, and the fellow in charge just doesn\'t care to make any changes. I feel better now
I\'ll take this next turf race at Saratoga. Race 7. Great price on the 4. Competitive figures. Good draw. The only thing that worries me is the lack of betting interest. 21-1 with 20 min. to post and will probably stay around that based on his double price. My key.
I tend to swing for the fences BC day. Such great prices on seemingly good horses. I can\'t pass up the opportunity to throw a bunch in a triple box. Expensive entertainment. Occasionally not.
Schivarelli digs in (with my buddy Javier aboard!) to land you the Pick 3!
Nice picking, toppled! Good luck in the finale.
Thanks. If 1 wins the 9th I clean up, otherwise I will either break even or make a small profit. I got DQ\'d from 2nd in the 4th, otherwise I\'d be ahead. I actually ended up cashing more on the 7-8 DD than the P3 because I invested too much to hit it.
AL
I have fond memories of the Monmouth facilities from my years as a licensee in
the mid 1980s, and had my share of run ins with the man who shall remain nameless and his direct superior.
While an unfavorable result in the November referendum could mean the end of
Freehold, The Big M and Monmouth, I am more concerned for the corridor of
thoroughbred breeding and training farms along Rte 537 in Colts Neck -- (among
others) the old Due Process facility, Colts Neck Stable\'s training farm and
Colonial Farm, a nursery which produced generations of stakes winners for trainer Harry Wells.
These farms are located about 20 minutes from Monmouth (and thus 25 minutes
from the Atlantic) and about 50 minutes from my home on Staten Island. The
real shame of a failed referendum in November will be the loss of jobs, the
end of a great tradition, and most sadly, the conversion of a little piece of
Bluegrass in the middle of New Jersey into tract houses and mcmansions.
Mr Bee,
While I didn\'t save my college books from South Fl. I am looking at the 1965 hard cover 2000 page American Racing manual. My friend gave me about 20-25 years of them.Every breeding farm in the country is listed by state. NJ had 5 pages of farms totaling roughly 150 farms. NY had a page and a half or roughly 45. I don\'t have anything past 1980 but a drastic difference. I guess now it\'s probably 30-40 for NJ and guessing more than 100 in NY. You might have heard of CBA, Christian Brothers Acadamy in Lincroft. School mascot is the Colts. School opened in the early 60s on the property which once housed Greentree. We had small farms as close as RT 35 in Wall.
I, like you hope the referendum passes, and from what I read Steve Sweeney, longtime nemesis of the horseman is not fighting against it for some reason that will somehow aide the AC Casinos.I understand that 2% is the minimum to go to purses or horsemans account of some sort but could go as high as 5%. The NJ governor I believe has a say in the share. Drazin says they need 10% of course. I don\'t know how much good 2% could do but 5% could certainly help the cause.
You\'re right about the G1s, 2s and 3s. And two turn races often offer better opportunities than one turn races simply because of ground loss. I\'m stuck in this niche of only playing two turn turf races for 3yos. and up. Turfers bounce less and ground loss often provides concealed numbers.