For the record no red boarding here because I didn\'t cash this race. There was a lot of chest thumping going on after the Derby and \"I told you so\" after this horse won the Derby. TG picked against him there was some criticism of trying to beat a 2-1 shot in 20 horse Derby field. This horse kooks real soft now. Doesn\'t like kickback. Doesn\'t like to rate well off. Is a good horse but not a great horse.
Predicting it\'s the last we\'ve seen of Nyquist.
Good Luck,
Joe B
Miler?
You might be right. It is mind-boggling right now to think how average the 2 best 3YO\'s in March look today. Have hardly developed. Can\'t handle an ounce of adversity. Totally need things their own way. Even Exaggerator has 3 big wins and all 3 on sloppy tracks!
Spring wonder maidens Trojan Nation (turf) and Laoban both earned their first wins this weekend.
Which begs the question, how are the 3yo horses with California backgrounds/beginnings doing in stakes races east of their state line this year?
It is uncanny......they haven\'t won all of them but they have won more than their fair share. Few that come to mind.
Nyquist (Fla Derby, Ky Derby)
Exaggerator (Preakness, Haskell)
Cupid (Rebel, Ind Derby)
Laoban (Jim Dandy)
American Freedom (Iowa Derby, Haskell 2nd)
Songbird (CCA Oaks)
Land Over Sea (FG Oaks, Ky Oaks, 2nd)
Trojan Nation (Maiden, 2nd in Wood slop)
Going on memory but hasn\'t he run poorly on off tracks before?
Most O\'Neil runners are falling down these days; I wouldn\'t play anything he sends out until his barn starts turning around. He\'s one of the streakiest bastards I\'ve ever seen!
Nyquist getting cooked on the front end last two on the slop not helping..need to see a fast track and stalk flop before sticking the fork in him..
I\'ve got to take some of this: Exagerator won SA Derby Fairmoant. Silver his #\'s aren\'t that bad on dry tracks, and I think his effort in the Belmont was limited because of his campaign. 12 furlongs has stifled many a good horse. The 1 1/4 Travers will be his measuring stick. We\'ll see.
I believe Fairmont was referring to Cali horse running and winning races out of their home state,Santa Anita is run in Cali.
If Travis comes up dry he will be a toss for me
Well said Johnny and Nyquist would also be a toss. You mentioned yesterday hw mighy be a Miler? He has yet to prove he can rate 3-4 back, navigate from the pocket or take any kind of kickback. He was precocious. Need to see more now!
Silver,
Don\'t let the truth stand in the way of your post.
He only sat 3 lengths off the lead and devoured the front runners in the most important 3 year old race of the year - the Kentucky Derby....
Hard to say what has happened to him, but off a BC Juvenile win and Derby Win, hard to be too critical, especially with the losses both being wet tracks.
Jim
He sat 3 lengths off the lead in the Derby in about the 4 path. Wide enough to avoid any kick back. Sat 5 wide in the BC Juvenile once again to avoid any kickback.
Weren\'t you the guy who posted last week Exaggerator was a total best against for the rest of the Summer? Yes I do believe so. Try picking and posting more than one winner every 3 months on here before you continue to pick other people\'s opinions apart. Therefore you don\'t look so foolish....lmao!!
Silver, exaggerator has won exactly O races this year on a fast track. His 3 victories have all been on sloppy tracks with fast paces to close into. If exaggerator is running in ANY race the rest of this year on a fast track, I will be leaving him off my tickets. Until he can prove that he can win on a fast track, I will bet against. As for Nyquist, I will reserve judgement until he runs on a fast track again. IMHO, I think a jockey change is in order. Mario seemed to give the same ride yesterday as he did in the Preakness. Maybe it is the horse, but the only way to find out is to put another jock up.
Patrick
Silver,
There is a big difference between a bad handicapping opinion on a race that hasn\'t happened yet and not understanding races that have already happened and posting nonsense.
Nyquist has rated and won. He has won from sprinting to 1 1/4 on fast tracks. He has wired and he has rated off the pace. He is OK.
I will try to pick more winners.
You try to post less nonsense.
I probably have a better shot at success..........
Jim
Patrick:
I\'m thinking Exxagerator now has too much celebrity to get a bettable price on any surface until the B.C. if that should pan out for him.
So we get Laoban vs Exagerator Gov MalibuAmerican Freedom & Mo Tom could be worse. Where\'s Outwork, racing with Lani in Japan?
Clearly, Exaggerator is a slop monster, but since this is a figure board, if you look at his last three races before the Belmont when he was probably a bit over the top, he had the same three numbers, two in the slop and one on a fast surface at Churchill, where he beat 18 other horses primed for that race, and had nearly the same figure as Nyqvist.
Re Exaggerator, I agree. The value, if any, will be in betting against him for the foreseeable future.
I think I remember hearing that Outwork was going to the farm for a stretch, haven\'t heard anything since a few days after the Derby.
Nyquist wants to run outside of horses. He drew the rail again and was sent as he had to be.
The connections of American Freedom know this and pin him down inside down the backstretch. Game, set, match for the Derby winner. They should retire him now.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Nyquist wants to run outside of horses. He drew
> the rail again and was sent as he had to be.
> The connections of American Freedom know this and
> pin him down inside down the backstretch. Game,
> set, match for the Derby winner. They should
> retire him now.
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.
When herd dynamics was mentioned here, it was laughed off the page. When you talk about kickback, being outside of horses, needing the lead, etc.... that is all a part of it. Many slower horses win due to favorable pace situations also.
Accurate performance figures are important, but there is more to the game than numbers on a page.
You are absolutely correct moose, this is a figure board and exaggerator has ran almost as fast on a dry track as he has in the slop. If you had to bet on one horse on a dry track however, who would you take? My money would be on Nyquist.
Patrick
jp702006 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You are absolutely correct moose, this is a figure
> board and exaggerator has ran almost as fast on a
> dry track as he has in the slop. If you had to bet
> on one horse on a dry track however, who would you
> take? My money would be on Nyquist.
>
> Patrick
Patrick, I would need to see Nyqvist race on a dry track once more before he would get my money. I give him major props for all that he\'s accomplished, but he\'s already outrun nearly every historical precedent of horses winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile. He\'s logged plenty of 2- and 3-year old miles already, and so has Exaggerator, for that matter. So, to answer your question, I\'d cast a very timid vote with my wallet for Exaggerator until I see that Nyqvist still has gas left in the tank.
Well said and not sticking a fork in him here. I would like to see this one prove he can navigate trips like what you see in Frosted\'s PP\'s. Look at him in the Wood Memorial and Penn Derby pocket rate and pounce. Same for the Met Mile explosion. He also took it to Pharoah early in the Travers, it cost him, but it also cost AP. Nyquist has rated outside and beaten horses he is better than at a young age. The Derby was a HUGE performance. That was May. Its a different season now and drop in that field today and he looks 3rd best!!