The last race on the card is soooooo BAD today the only pick 4 play would be an all in the heat. The pick 5 pool is swelling as many folks are catching onto the merits of a 15% takeout with a .50 minimum.
I spent quite a bit of time last night discussing todays sequence with Jimbo,our opinions were certainly not in alignment as he asked me if I was looking at T-graph? It seems he has gravitated his focus on it as well. A 15 % takeout with a rebate schedule of 5-9% depending on my level of action and which account I\'m using has me in the midst of an experiment. Mathcapper has blessed the merits of the math with a disclaimer that I still would be required to pick winners! Thanks Rocky.
Today\'s allure is the 4th race taking a stand against a Chad Brown horse that will go off 2 or 3/5 off a big one turn number. His horses normally don\'t bounce but I\'m taking a shot to knock out 90% plus of the pick 5 pool with a modest ticket. It\'s also is a race with a couple of hard knockers that win races and have back numbers. One of my MO\'s for many years has been betting against maidens, NW1X or NW2L horses when they run against multiple winners, These horses are often way over bet and have never beaten a horse that has beaten winners.
2nd: 2,3,7,8 the favorite ran a good number in a MSW and was dropped in for a tag in his next start and Tony Durrow has been ice cold all year in NY.
3rd: Frenchy on a slow favorite, no thank you, Butch Reid is sharp coming into town, heading south with back numbers and Giant Fox is a new gelding heading in the correct direction. 3,9
4th: No Chad, 2 Gargans\' and a sneaky good Cannizzo. 1,2,5
5th: 1,2,9 are automatics and I dare not leave out the Pletcher although she looks not at all like a green lover to me. 1,2,5,9
6th: Shug looks to have a good one here but is certainly not a single. Ralph Nicks was very hot with a small Belmont sample of runners, Tizacity was 2nd choice to a run away winner in her debut who was bet and the dam has a sprint number to take the heat. Barclay Tagg\'s horses have been running fairly well so far and this one\'s thoro quick pattern is taking a left turn. I\'m not using a slow Chad/JJ probable 2nd choice here. 1,4,7
The sequence is $144 for .50 if you\'re going cave man, I will pay a caveman simply because if I\'m right I\'m really going to get paid here!!! I\'ll also press it with some sensible lesser A,B tickets.
Good luck to all,
Frank D.
* A note that Eric Donovan is not making the ML for this meet, he is doing something else for NYRA apparently and there have been some head scratching ML\'s posted by Travis Stone.
Frank,
Seems wrong for me to debate this with you again on the board after we did it last night via text message, but it is a mildly interesting sequence at least, so why not.
By the way, out of friendship, I am going to pass on the soft ball toss of u playing a \"cave man\" ticket and how apropos that is.....
Race 2 - Gonna use 5-7-8. You correctly pointed out that the likely favorite, the 6, ran well first time dirt and got dropped into a claimer, a really negative trainer intent sign for sure (BBB???). then ran poorly to boot, albeit at a longer distance.
Race 3 - To me, this race became awful with the scratch of the 9, who I thought was easily the most likely horse to run well. I think the 5, the favorite, while slow on TG, is better than the TG figures have him looking. Of course the 3 figures. But with an inability to trust two \"out of town\" horses, it feels to me I need to throw a couple bombs in as \"B\" or \"C\" horses. Swivel has OK figures, but I don\'t think the cutback helps. I may use Manhattan Johnnie, with back figures last year and early speed, as well as Indian Nobility, with OK figues, as backups, just because I don\'t trust the two out of town horses.
Race 4 - I am boring here. I gave strong consideration to the 2 to speed pop the field, but watching the replays of the 6 has me chalking out. Gonna use everybody\'s pick-5 single, the 6 horse. (but if you are right Frank, the payouts could be quite good)
Race 5 - A spread race for sure. The 4 and 7 are firsters with some turf pedigree/family. I have to use them. 2 and 9 have a race under their belt and should run better second time out. I may use one more, but not sure who. I don\'t love firsters breaking from the rail and I am surprised at Linda starting a 450k purchase, bred for dirt, on the turf first out. She did this last year with a horse that was even more expensive, can\'t remember his name. Ran poor on the turf, got conditioning then whistled in a tough dirt race, wire to wire next time out (and moved up the conditions - A Pioneer of the Nile colt. Maybe Champion of the Nile or something like that. Pletcher gives me a headache on all accounts in all races, but this one looks more dirt, albeit with decent works. Hoping to read something on this string later that points me to a 5th horse, at a price.
Race 6 - 4 is super obvious. Ambivalent on the 1. Frank D makes a good point about being well meant first time out. Then again, \"well meant\" in a May race at Gulfstream? What does that actually mean? May/June at Gulf is awful racing. I do respect Nicks though. He will be a game time decision for me on inclusion. I hear you that the 2 is slow on TG. I don\'t care. I will use. Classic speed fade first time out, making the number worse than the actual race track performance. Then stretches out and gets a \"passenger only\" ride from Ortiz, doesn\'t leave the gate, doesn\'t get position, goes 5 wide on the turn. Moves to Castellano, a more aggressive gate jockey and cuts back to 7 furlongs. Expect him to run much better today, albeit at an underlaid price, as you pay the \"chad brown turf success\" premium on a Chad Brown dirt horse. Somebody has to hold a gun to my head to make me bet Albertrani, who somehow manages to keep getting good stock from the Middle East connections and does very little with it. As Board absentee Miff used to say, \"he has no signature, you never know when his horses will run\".
Good luck
Jim
Scratches should bring the costs down. I\'ll be going 50 cent 6,7,8/3,5/2,6/1,4,8,9/2,4,7 and going for the gold with a bigger P5 8/5/2,6/1,4,8,9/7
Scratches:
1 8 Blue Atlantic
2 2 Ornato 3 Starry Messenger
3 9 Giant Fox
5 11 Daddyisdooley 12 So Fancy 13 Victory to Victory 14 Zero Zee
15 Tickety Boo 16 Buy Low Sell High Early
7 1A Eye Luv Lulu 3 Pop the Hood 4 Captain Gaughen
5 True Bet 13 Bug Juice 14 Bond Vigilante
9 8 Making Havoc 11 Rumble Doll
10 13 Downgoesfrazier
Scratch of the 9 in the 3rd race will now make me include Frenchy on the Maker favorite. I was between him and Richiebee\'s favorite trainer Doodnauth Shivmangal.
I\'ll leave the 7,8 alone in the first leg after the 2\'s scratch.
Making a cave man spend $72 now, got to go and bring Uncle Bill his lunch!!!!!
If you\'re not going to single Shug\'s filly in the last leg I think you have to use Tagg\'s filly. Fipke homebred Debuted at 2 last year at the Spa and caught a tough field that included Rachel\'s Valentina. Then made a very wide run in her second start and never really leveled out in the stretch, running a bit greenly but sustained that run to get the show while earning a decent figure. Now has a long sequence of regularly spaced works leading up to three year old debut and cuts back to 7F.