No way to bet this race vertically and even horizontally, your only option is to pick the one you like and watch the race. (using both will create negative value in that the take on the multis is 23 percent or so and they will cover maybe 98% of the horizontals (will there even be 2 percent bet elsewhere?)
Anyway, I think a fun race to watch. I realize that every card carrying sheet player will be \"all in\" on Carina Mia today, but I can\'t share that view, despite what the figures say. Sure, Carina has the three 1.5 TG figs, which all beat Songbird\'s best, but not sure that tells the story. Carina, for some reason, didn\'t get out of the gate in either of the last two races. However, that was a HUGE edge in both races. Look at the charts and watch the replays. Both were heavily contested paces with a huge race flow to closers. So, sure the 1.5 was earned, but was earned under perfect conditions IMO. Any chance Carina gets perfect conditions today? Unless Songbird stumbles out of the gate, she is going to the front, Carina is sitting second if she breaks and she will have to put away Songbird \"on the square\". Now, Songbird has a string of 3\'s and some 5\'s, all which look a bit slow, but how many of those figures were under a hand ride, shut down the last 1/8th of a mile. It is a very reasonable assertion that she could have run faster in almost every race.
Now, the ship is an issue, and relative recency with CArina off two sharp races and more battle tested, helps her cause. But to me, those two small pluses are offset by one EXTREME NEGATIVE. You have a relative match race, with Mike Smith riding a speed horse with inside position while poor Carina gets clueless Frenchie. Is it outside the realm of possibility that Frenchie doesn\'t even get the 2nd positin early? Possible with his propensity to forget to ride out of the gate. I am no huge Mike SMith fan, if I need a crafty \"come from behind\" ride on the turf course, give me Castellano, Irad ORtiz, or an \"in form\" Desormeaux. But on a speed horse with a tactical advantage where Smith can dole out the speed and play \"cat and mouse\" is there any doubt Smith is the cat and frenchie the mouse?
Good luck to all today. As I said a good race to watch, less so to bet.
Jim
I\'m going the other way with this as I think its a worth a shot to play against Songbird in the Pick 4, really hoping the Pletcher filly can come out running early and help do some of the early work against Songbird.
Going to single the 5 on the end for the main ticket, toss Songbird and use the 2,4,5 in the feature, press more with the 2 to allow for some B horses in the last race.
Spread and hope I can get a price horse home in the 9th race.
Use the 2,10 in the 8th.
Not to expensive a play and has a shot to pay out well if it hits.
I give myself a 30 percent chance to win and should get about 40-1 on my money.
I was in a hurry to get that up before the 8th race so as not to be accused of red boarding. I meant to say I could get up to 40-1 on my money by beating Songbird. And that seems like enough value to me.
wow
If your\'re looking for more of an explanation Pete, here\'s my thinking.
First of all Carina Mia has run three races faster than Songbird has ever run in her life.
Songbird also had to ship cross country for this.
Songbird has been winning by running them off their feet early. It\'s the 3rd 1/4 to my eye where she does her damage, and then she wins geared down late. The assumption the public tends to make when a horse wins geared down late is that they could have gone faster if asked, but in my experience that is not always - or even usually - the case. Going 6F in 109 and change in a two turn race is really doing some running early. I don\'t think Songbird could have gone THAT much faster in the end if she had needed to in some of those races. Those were all shorter races too. This is 1 1/8th, a distance Songbird has never gone.
She\'s also never had to face someone as good as Carina Mia and hold off anyone else that may be coming late. It would probably be really helpful to my bet if the Pletcher filly comes out running early and does some of the early work, which she is fast enough to do, but it\'s not 100% necessary.
So if you are ever going to take a shot against Songbird, now is probably a decent time IMO. And I chose the Pick 4 pool as the place to do it.
I probably will lose this bet, but to my eye the percentages say it\'s a good bet to make.
No opinions on the handicapping there Mjellish, I was just amazed of the 40/1 on a 30 % chance-statement. Sounded like the bet of the century! But to be fair you did nuance that statement in your later post that I hadn\'t seen. Good luck!
I see you might have gotten your big price there, if you had them all in race 9.
I had all but 6 and 12. So yes, I had the 5. Had it as a B horse though, so half the price of what I had for the A horses and no back ups in the last leg. I now need either the 2,4,5 to beat Songbird, and then I have the 5 singled in the last leg. Can\'t say I have a 30% chance to win anymore. But I have a potential opportunity to hedge if I can beat Songbird here. More fun than just watching the next race like Jimbo is. :)
I\'m just watching too! I guess I\'ve just bet against too many of these to get excited about them. Songbird looks like the real deal to me, number power or not.
WOW
I would like to amend that statement to read \"More fun and more expensive than just watching the next race like Jimbo is.\"
MJ,
Interesting stuff. Always good to take a shot against an overwhelming favorite when there is a good reason to. (figures suggested today was a good day to try - I didn\'t watch, fooled around with Carina Mia half-heartedly, to no avail.
Didn\'t see your post until now, but I can\'t imagine how you figure you were 30% to cash though. Using 2-10 in the first leg, which turned out to be a winner, was maybe only 40% to get get you through one leg, let alone the entire sequence. Water under the bridge but just curious. If I give you 50% to beat Songbird, you are down to 20% to cash if you had all/all in the 9th and 11th.
As for the race itself, I actually thought Carina had her on the far turn. There were some on this board who thought Carina had distance limitations. Wonder how much of final margin was just that Songbird is too good versus 1 1/8 maybe being a bit far for Carina. Hard to say.
It was exciting for a few strides on the far turn.
And I stand corrected, Frenchie rode a good race. Gave his filly a good chance to win, just wasn\'t good enough.
Jim
10K pick 4 incredible!!!
Many could have made a case for singling the Pletcher 2 in the 8th and Songbird with all/all in the other 2 legs. $144 for a buck could have been 5K.
I went over to the rail to see the horses on their way to the paddock from our spot with TGAB. Never having seen Songbird in person it was game, set, match seeing her and Carina Mia walk over one after the other. Songbird is ripped with muscles bulging, I wasn\'t sure if it was Forego or a Fille! Maggie concurred in her pre race segment.
FYI I ran into a exercise rider whom many of us know or know of through Bobby G. last week at the racino he told me watch out for anything and everything coming off the bench this meet for KM, they are primed and ready to go. Only 4 in 3 days under that profile including the 20/1 shot in the 9th that made a $389 pick 3 with a 5/2 Pletcher and Songbird on the book ends which I did\'t have on any of my pick 3 or 4 tickets! BRILLIANT. This one had a back number very capable of handling his heat too.
30% was pretty optimistic. Agreed. Not to make excuses, but i threw that post up in a hurry as they reached the gate for the 8th. What i really meant was that i figured i had about a 1/3 chance to beat Songbird and was pretty confident in the other legs. Turns out i only hit 2/4. And i didnt have the 6 in the last leg even on my back up ticket for that race, so i would have been singing the blues even if i had beat Songbird.
Im going to look at the pick 6 sequence for tomorrow and start over.
My play was
2,10
1,2,7,8,9,10
2
5
3 units
2,10
1,2,7,8,9,10
2,4,5
5
3 units
2,10
3,4,5,11
2,4,5
5
2 units
2,10
1,2,7,8,9,10
2
3,4,7,9,10,11,12
1 unit
Frank, this would\'ve been a great post....yesterday! I hope I didn\'t miss the KM boat and will watch this week.
It cannot be measured, but I know it when i see it.
Good Luck,
Joe B.