Belmont Derby? Looks quite wide open, 3 Euros, two from O\'Brien,I
think both of them are Lasix on. Hope the possible storms don\'t
mess up a great day. Getting pumped for Saratoga. Looks like
I may have two running, keeping my fingers crossed.
Dwyer.
Good one...vulnerable chalk IMO.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I have a different view of the Dwyer.
My view is Fish Trap Road is the vulnerable horse. His Last race the Woody Stevens was a grueling test. His effort with the pacesetters was strong as his TG# indicates. It was a fast paced race. While he out sprinted Justin Squared and Sharp Azteca he couldn\'t hold off Tom\'s Ready and Star Hill almost got to him also. That race was 7F the Dwyer a furlong longer doesn\'t give me any confidence in the the Key of the analysis.
My opinion of the favorite Economic Model also differs with the experts. I don\'t see an erratic pattern. I see one race where the colt probably had a reaction to that nasty March palm pollen in Oldsmar. i.e. Tampa Downs. So tossing the Tam Derby race and we have a strong line. Many assume a bounce off a top but we know that is not always true. This one is forecast to have short odds in large part because of his trainer C. Brown. But I like him bcause he is the fastest horse.
My angle will be an attempt to hit the tri with a rifle not a shot gun. Laoban to run 2nd and Unbridled Outlaw to run 3rd. A saver exacta Unbridled Outlaw under the favorite.
How about the proposition Effinex vs Mubtaaaahij. Now that one has plenty of ????
Tavasco Wrote:
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> I have a different view of the Dwyer.
>
> My view is Fish Trap Road is the vulnerable horse.
> His Last race the Woody Stevens was a grueling
> test. His effort with the pacesetters was strong
> as his TG# indicates. It was a fast paced race.
> While he out sprinted Justin Squared and Sharp
> Azteca he couldn\'t hold off Tom\'s Ready and Star
> Hill almost got to him also. That race was 7F the
> Dwyer a furlong longer doesn\'t give me any
> confidence in the the Key of the analysis.
>
> My opinion of the favorite Economic Model also
> differs with the experts. I don\'t see an erratic
> pattern. I see one race where the colt probably
> had a reaction to that nasty March palm pollen in
> Oldsmar. i.e. Tampa Downs. So tossing the Tam
> Derby race and we have a strong line. Many assume
> a bounce off a top but we know that is not always
> true. This one is forecast to have short odds in
> large part because of his trainer C. Brown. But I
> like him bcause he is the fastest horse.
>
> My angle will be an attempt to hit the tri with a
> rifle not a shot gun. Laoban to run 2nd and
> Unbridled Outlaw to run 3rd. A saver exacta
> Unbridled Outlaw under the favorite.
>
> How about the proposition Effinex vs Mubtaaaahij.
> Now that one has plenty of ????
Fair comment . . . \'cept remember that EM was virtually gifted on Belmont Day, since the dirt speeds all died until after the Belmont -- and Cupid had no shot, in that spot. Just food for thought.
I tend to agree with Tavasco. In EM\'s first start he was purposely yanked behind runaway sprinter Awesome Banner. A solid run followed and then was thrown into the fire at Tampa with Destin (Belmont runnnerup, Outwork (Wood winner), Brody Cause(?) Blue Grass Winner. However after a nice 2YO maiden win he did go straight to the bench and was given time. Will be 4/5 or even less and tough to bet. Fish Trappe Road is worth a shot. Don\'t think he will be 8-1 however
Nice call