Did anyone see the late P-4 payout at Gulf today? Three of them 3-1 and one 7-2. Big enough fields, too. $31? This has to be some elephant hitting it a thousand times.
Leamas
Check your data
6.00, 9.20, 4.00 3.00
That is 2-1, 7/2, 1-1 and 1-2
About $20 for a .50 parlay
I understand the first race, but this elicits the question: do the morning line odds after that make a better gauge?
Leamas
Leamas57 Wrote:
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> I understand the first race, but this elicits the
> question: do the morning line odds after that make
> a better gauge?
No, the final win odds are by far the best gauge of the payoffs in the multis.
As belmont3 noted, the $.50 parlay came in at around $20 ($20.70 to be precise). The takeout at GP is 20% for the Pick 4 and 17% in the Win pool. Since you only get hit with the takeout once in the Pick 4, the expected payout for the Pick 4 at GP is (1-.20)/(1-.17)^4 = 1.68 times the parlay, or $34.78 in this case, which was pretty close to actual $31.45 payout.
There are instances when the morning line does seem to come into play, like when a horse that\'s 15-1 ML goes off at 3-1, such horses tend to be a little higher in the multis than their win odds, but those are more the exception rather than the rule.
Rocky R.
Thanks, Rocky.
I like the way the payout plays into it over the series.
Leamas