Just wondering if anyone is doing anything there with the new lower takeout?
As was mentioned in an earlier post, the betting patterns are a bit odd - the win pool is frequently way way more than the exacta pool. They appear to be burying the handle of Prairie Meadows - who has had it also appears 3 - 100k neighborhood type amount show bets in the last week on 3/5 shots (they pay $2.20 to show). Other than those days their handle looks to be much lower. Arlington is holding on with 8 race cards. Far as I can tell, Cby is up about 5% on track wagering and attendance(they had over 12,000 in attendance on Sunday) and about 6.5% overall. I am not able to wager there online, but their off track numbers seem up about 7%. They just added a pick 5 last week, and HANA had them as their feature track last Thursday night. They have a new racing secretary and lots of races that are really unbettable in my opinion - stand out 3/5 shots or short fields. Both of those improved over the past week, but that would seem to be a problem if this lower takeout is in fact going to stimulate higher handle.
Just curious what others may have seen/done there?
bb
Love the lower takeout but there are many obstacles.
The pools are tiny, which snowballs because it keeps other bettors away . They need to 86 the rolling doubles. The double pools are usually well below $1000. The pick 3 pools are a little better but still aren\'t big enough to produce value if longshots hit.
Then there is the problem with the product itself. There seem to be many small fields with odds-on chalk. They certainly also have some big fields too, especially on the turf. There are quite a few state-bred races which might be deterring simulcast players that aren\'t familiar with the MN horses. Finally , it\'s hard to take huge stands in races that have Diodoro horses.
These are opinions of course. I\'d love to hear other players\' thoughts.
All very valid points. I see much the same thing. However that\'s why am curious, as they seem to be one of the few places that even listens to bettors. As you say, I\'m curious what other people think? Frankly, it seems, if a place like this can\'t make this take out process work,no one can given the built in advantage they have right now. So any and all ideas would seem to help us all in the long run.
bb
I wouldn\'t make the leap that a lack of success here means much.
It\'s one thing to lower takeout at a small venue in the hopes it will boost handle.
It\'s another to do it at a major with an existing high handle, like NYRA or California. Until they try it at the big time ovals , nothing is proved.
Of course, some success at Canterbury would be nice, if only to give the others incentive.
banditbeau Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Just wondering if anyone is doing anything there
> with the new lower takeout?
> As was mentioned in an earlier post, the betting
> patterns are a bit odd - the win pool is
> frequently way way more than the exacta pool.
> They appear to be burying the handle of Prairie
> Meadows - who has had it also appears 3 - 100k
> neighborhood type amount show bets in the last
> week on 3/5 shots (they pay $2.20 to show). Other
> than those days their handle looks to be much
> lower. Arlington is holding on with 8 race cards.
> Far as I can tell, Cby is up about 5% on track
> wagering and attendance(they had over 12,000 in
> attendance on Sunday) and about 6.5% overall. I
> am not able to wager there online, but their off
> track numbers seem up about 7%. They just added a
> pick 5 last week, and HANA had them as their
> feature track last Thursday night. They have a
> new racing secretary and lots of races that are
> really unbettable in my opinion - stand out 3/5
> shots or short fields. Both of those improved
> over the past week, but that would seem to be a
> problem if this lower takeout is in fact going to
> stimulate higher handle.
>
> Just curious what others may have seen/done
> there?
>
> bb
You just hope the fields expand as the weather warms further. Been there on multiple occasions, and like the management, but they had little to lose after last year\'s disappointing season, so they proceeded to take the aggressive bettor-friendly stance. The locals like to go there as a day out (see: Monmouth, etc), but you\'re not dealing with a deep bench of hardcore heavy plungers. I like to support it, but it\'s not the most accesssible signal out there, as many have found out.
That is the point Boscar which you well make - if it is attempted, and it works at a much smaller venue, it could work at a larger venue - i.e. NYRA, Cali, Florida. And bettors could point to this success as a possibility. Right now,as Miff has suggested, along with others, the thought of doing this in NY would be greeted with a look from them suggesting we are from Mars or something. NYRA should be in way better position with their slot income to do something like this than anyone. Fat chance of that happening.
http://www.drf.com/news/too-early-gauge-lower-takeouts-effect
I only followed Canterbury last summer from July 1st or so forward. I was extremely interested as this year started but I ran into cards that were full of short fields and favorites and have not been involved lately although I occassionally look to see if field size is up. I almost posted this last evening but didn\'t have any stats to back it up. But now I do:
41% of favorites have won so far
7.37 field size for thoroughbreds
Race 4 winner: $5.00
Race 5 winner: $4.00
Race 6 winner: $19.60
Race 6 payouts:
$2 double = $19.00
$2 pick-3 = $41.60
Bully,
Do you mean the race 4 payouts?
Yes. Sorry, race numbers were wrong. Move everything back 2 races.
IMVHO the fact that handle dramatically rises in almost every non jackpot carryover bet is concrete proof that lowered take out attracts significantly more handle. Likewise in the jackpot bets on forced pay days.