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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: TGJB on June 14, 2016, 11:43:08 AM

Title: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: TGJB on June 14, 2016, 11:43:08 AM
Hopefully taking fuel away from the fire, not adding to it...

I talked to Elliott Walden the day before the race, told him I thought Gettysburg was coming up to a good effort and might last longer than he thought. That got us into talking about Connecting Terms, one of mine he trained for Prestonwood, who we both loved, and who against both our wishes was used as a rabbit for Victory Gallop in the Whitney.

Anyway, he said they weren\'t going to dead send Gettysburg, but just wanted to ensure an honest pace so that (as Asmussen says in tomorrow\'s DRF) the field didn\'t bunch up. In that sense it worked perfectly-- Ortiz was able to avoid getting caught wide.

Some of you guys might be surprised how ground loss conscious Elliott and Asmussen are, and if you watch Chad Brown and Clement runners, it\'s pretty clear they give instructions that way too.
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: miff on June 14, 2016, 11:50:20 AM
And when they get stopped along the fence,with a ton of horse,they look like idiots for not going around
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: TGJB on June 14, 2016, 12:14:17 PM
To you they do. Seems to me the people mentioned win a lot of races.
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: miff on June 14, 2016, 12:15:31 PM
Yes, little to do with saving ground, much to do with talented horses/placement.
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: bobphilo on June 14, 2016, 12:31:17 PM
As opposed to looking like idiots for losing a race because of ground loss by going wide.
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: Strike on June 14, 2016, 12:40:11 PM
Reminds me of a race in 1993. Beverly Hills Handicap at Hollywood Park. Frankel had Jolypha and only 3 horses to beat. Desormeaux got trapped on the rail the whole length of the stretch -- was tons the best -- and was beaten by Flawlessly with a perfect trip. Frankel always instructed the jockeys to take the shortest route.

A few seconds later, as his binoculars were bouncing down the stairs, an enraged Frankel shouted the following --

\"How stupid can those . . . (jockeys) be. Don\'t . . . talk to me. I don\'t want to talk to anyone. Goodbye.\"
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: miff on June 14, 2016, 12:41:50 PM
Rare that someone goes wide when the option to cut the corner is there.Many get stopped by marrying inside with the best horse.

Joel Rosario went from one of top 3 jockeys on planet to average because of Kool Aid drinking agent,a Sheet slave,instructing him to stay inside.
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: TGJB on June 14, 2016, 12:49:24 PM
You have got to be kidding. Rosario went from riding in 5 horse fields in Califonia where being outside meant 3 wide, to riding in ten horse fields against top jocks and competitive fields. He did NOT adjust, and is caught making premature wide moves daily, especially on grass. That was always going to be the problem, and some of us called it as soon as he got here. Right here on this board.

The guy is completely unpredictable now. He is fully capable of finishing third when he should win or coming through inside and winning when he shouldn\'t.
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: miff on June 14, 2016, 12:55:24 PM
Wrong,Rosario won titles year after year and the fields were not 5 horses, it was before horse shortage.Wrong again on grass where at GP meets for two years running he was stopped along the rail more times that you can count.

Lastly, wrong again, where he now rides most of his dirt and grass races,along the fence.
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: TGJB on June 14, 2016, 01:01:21 PM
Whatever you say.
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: Tavasco on June 14, 2016, 01:09:28 PM
Saturdays Ogden Phipps was a perfect example. Forever Unbridled (Rosario chooses to to go inside) was full of run with no where to go Cavorting outside and unimpeded cruises home (pleasing me). I assume Cavorting gets a better # Forever Unbridled looked the better horse that race.

Certainly countless examples where saving ground wins races.

So being a jockey involves serving varied interests they may get more criticism than they deserve but what the hell.
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: TGJB on June 14, 2016, 01:13:51 PM
The mistake in both that race and the Belmont wasn\'t saving ground, it was staying there behind the one horse in the race that was sure to back up in your face. Both races.
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: miff on June 14, 2016, 01:17:32 PM
Rosario had 9 mounts on Belmont card, take a look where he placed most of his horses all day on straight. Frosted, for example, won by 14+, but he stayed inside never attempting to get off,same with Gov Malibu whom many thought would have been closer if taken out and not stopped.

Rosario not nearly as good as he was since he became over committed to fence.His  superior physical power somewhat mitigated by sitting in too often.
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: TGJB on June 14, 2016, 01:20:36 PM
Yup, that\'s it.
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: richiebee on June 14, 2016, 02:24:39 PM
Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Saturdays Ogden Phipps was a perfect example.
> Forever Unbridled (Rosario chooses to to go
> inside) was full of run with no where to go
> Cavorting outside and unimpeded cruises home
> (pleasing me). I assume Cavorting gets a better #
> Forever Unbridled looked the better horse that
> race.

Tavasco:

By the numbers:

1) I bet FU in that race and did not have Cavorting.

2) I saw the trouble Rosario found on the turn/top of stretch.

3) I watched the replay 4 times.

4) I am fairly convinced that FU\'s trouble did not cost her the top spot.

5) FU now a millionairess who has won her four races on four different tracks;
   hope we see her at the Spaaah....
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: TheBull on June 14, 2016, 02:59:03 PM
I have no knowledge of those other trainers but as far as Chad Brown goes, I have it on pretty good authority (jocks and agents who have ridden for him) that the ONLY thing Chad cares about is saving ground. Those are your instructions....He doesnt care what you do but save ground, and he doesnt get mad at you. Thats all he wants. If you dont get thru, so be it. Irad and JJ have lost a bunch for him saving ground and getting stopped, and Im telling you he does not get mad at that. It makes sense. Save it for another day as opposed to wasting an effort by going wide and losing, an effort you probably wont get again next time....I assume that is the thinking.
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: Tavasco on June 14, 2016, 03:13:43 PM
Hey Ritchie, was sorry to see Guns Loaded ran out of ammunition after the 1st quarter mile. Further concerned when his price went up to 8.80/1. Supposing you couldn\'t lay off and hoping you did.

Fortunately, with my hours and age I cat napped about that time, saved money didn\'t see Mario\'s ride. I\'ll be looking forward to Forever Unbridled\'s next race. Spah... my last visit was 1994 (I think) dragged  a gal up there on a second date for a weekend was so magical took me 10 years to wriggle out of the relationship.
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: richiebee on June 14, 2016, 04:27:24 PM
As I posted, Guns Loaded, due to the fact that he was slower and an unproven
quantity away from the Hillside, would need to have crept up to double digit odds
for me to have pulled the trigger.

Congrats to Patricia Generazio, owner of the $875 exacta...
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: jbelfior on June 14, 2016, 04:46:45 PM
Give Ironicus the same post/trip as Flintshire and vice-versa and tell me who wins the race.


Good Luck,
Joe B
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: jimbo66 on June 14, 2016, 05:23:41 PM
Joe b.

Flintshire best him with a worse post. Not sure what point u are making.

I love to toss favorites.   Often been accusing of stupidly \"attacking King Kong\" at the track

There are going to be a whole lot better favorites to attack than Flintshire this summer.

Good luck

Jim
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: johnnym on June 14, 2016, 05:54:23 PM
Watch the Brooklyn replay exact same trip as the Belmont from Rosario.
One got thru the other not a to good.
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: richiebee on June 14, 2016, 06:45:05 PM
Hey Joe:

I saw it a little differently.

In my opinion, add 5 pounds of lead to Flinty, take 5 pounds of lead off
Ironicus, give Ironicus a perfect trip, and...

Flintshire still wins. Look at the hold JCastellano had on this horse early in
the race; look at how kindly the horse is responding to being rated.

Question is whether he goes for a repeat in Sword Dancer, or faces a tougher
bunch in Arlington Million. Short prices aren\'t sexy, but this is an elite
performer.
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: jbelfior on June 14, 2016, 06:49:54 PM
Jim:
My point was that Ironicus, with an inside trip, had to wait at the top of the stretch and checked while full of run in the lane when World Approval bore in. Although Flintshire was wider he never had to wait nor lose momentum.

The example was in response to the debate around saving ground. I agree with that for dirt racing however assuming their numbers stack up, I\'ll play the outside drawn horses versus inside all day long on the turf.

Good Luck,
Joe B
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: NormandyInvasion on June 14, 2016, 07:33:09 PM
Is there any doubt that with all being equal the best route is the shortest?  But all isn\'t equal.  Inside can be a bad path.  A horse can be boxed in.  A horse may not be able to stride out.  He may have his momentum checked.  And a point that few away from the barn are aware of, a good number of horses don\'t like to be inside.

So an inside trip or an outside trip can be the best trip for that horse, in that race, on that day.  It\'s not automatically worse to have the wider trip.
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: Ace on June 14, 2016, 08:00:51 PM
It seems to me that at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May saving ground is not a recipe for success. Not since Super Saver and Mind That Bird has a winner gone 1w1w.  I\'ve bet horses with good number power who saved ground but got passed in the stretch by horses rallying wide. The rail in the Derby has seemed dead for several years.
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: johnnym on June 15, 2016, 02:47:06 AM
Pretty sure Street Sense was a 1W as well.
What do all 3 of those horses have in common?
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: sekrah on June 15, 2016, 05:29:13 AM
Flintshire beats Ironicus 95/100 times on Saturday.
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: Otis Bones on June 15, 2016, 05:35:20 AM
Strategy vs tactics.  Saving ground is a good strategy in general except when a given race dictates differently.  Racing wide Rosario may have sacrificed a few lengths on average but he also protected his rides from faulty in-race decision making.
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: Chas04 on June 15, 2016, 06:42:13 AM
100 out of 100
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: sekrah on June 15, 2016, 07:16:18 AM
You\'re right. I probably I gave too many % pts to the possibility of Flintshire getting wiped out at the gate and Castellano falling off the horse.
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: Chas04 on June 15, 2016, 07:24:37 AM
ha, yup.  On Another note Wes just blitzed a field across the pond by 10+ at 4 1/2. Unreal stuff going on.
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: jbelfior on June 15, 2016, 07:40:16 AM
This is not about Ironicus being a better horse than Flintshire. This is about trips which decide more turf winners than performance numbers, distance preferences, etc.

Reverse the trips in the Manhattan and you\'re both wrong.

Good Luck,
Joe B.
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: sekrah on June 15, 2016, 08:04:01 AM
No we\'re not.
Title: Lady Aurelia
Post by: milwmike on June 15, 2016, 08:05:19 AM
From the Racing Post - LADY AURELIA put up one of the most devastating displays seen in modern times at Royal Ascot when blitzing to seven-length win in the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes.

Time was 100.14.  Group 1 older horses ran 102.69 yesterday.  Group 3 3yo males ran 7f in 128.49 the race before LA.  Awesome performance.
Title: Re: Lady Aurelia
Post by: Tavasco on June 15, 2016, 08:15:49 AM
My mistake - misread the race distance.
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: Chas04 on June 15, 2016, 09:49:43 AM
I\'m in complete agreement that trips mean everything in turf races. But if the trips were reversed Flintshire would have exploded along the rail when it finally opened from World Approval up while Ironicus would not have been finishing as strong on the outside like Flintshire did. He is just not as fast. Someone might get him one of these races...on an off day when he gets outta bed just not wanting to fire....but he wasn\'t winning Saturdays race if the trips were reversed.
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: TGJB on June 15, 2016, 09:52:02 AM
As I END this discussion (and \"I\'m right/You\'re wrong\" is especially productive), I just want to point out how lucky Chad Brown, Clement and Castellano are. They manage to win all those turf races while insisting on saving ground.
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: miff on June 15, 2016, 10:42:23 AM
Flintshire won because he saved ground,Brilliant!!....pssst might wanna look again Flint vs Ironicus
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: TGJB on June 15, 2016, 10:47:23 AM
I said that where, exactly. Knock it off.
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: miff on June 15, 2016, 10:48:41 AM
hmmmm. trained by Brown, ridden by Castellano...might wanna check your post
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: TGJB on June 15, 2016, 10:54:27 AM
I know exactly what I wrote, which a) wasn\'t about any specific race or relationship between two horses, and b) saving ground doesn\'t just mean a rail trip. Castellano did what he could from the outside post.

Time to give it a rest here for a while, Mike. A request, for now.
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: miff on June 15, 2016, 10:58:08 AM
No problem, you doing me a favor?
Title: Re: Win Star Rabbit
Post by: Furious Pete on August 07, 2016, 05:32:59 AM
I\'m not sure these power displays helps the quality of the board.