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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: TGJB on June 13, 2016, 10:15:08 AM

Title: Frosted
Post by: TGJB on June 13, 2016, 10:15:08 AM
\"You say to yourself, \'What\'d we do to make him run like that\', but it\'s hard to say\". -- Kiaran.

I got an idea. Make a list of things you did not just to him, but to Kareena and Cavorting. See what you come up with.
Title: Re: Frosted
Post by: jbelfior on June 13, 2016, 11:59:30 AM
Frosted fooled me when i saw him live and in person at Parx last year. Pranced around the walking ring all muscled up and ran to his looks.

Six weeks later I was salivating at the BC Classic exacta payoffs with AP and walked away from the window with enough to call it the biggest play I ever made. My daughter\'s wedding would be paid for (Italian wedding, 250+ guests---not cheap) in 2 and change.

Buddy of mine who was with me then was with me on Saturday. Told him you just watched the greatest Met Mile performance in history (now ThoroGraph history) from a horse who couldn\'t lift a hoof in the BC when $60K was on the line.

Thanks Kiaran.  


Good Luck,
Joe B.
Title: Re: Frosted
Post by: TGJB on June 13, 2016, 12:02:51 PM
Probably the fastest figure in history.
Title: Re: Frosted
Post by: johnnym on June 13, 2016, 12:17:18 PM
Was curious about that.
Title: Re: Frosted
Post by: miff on June 13, 2016, 12:34:11 PM
Maybe TG history, nowhere else.
Title: Re: Frosted
Post by: TGJB on June 13, 2016, 12:42:22 PM
Haven\'t done it yet, but he ran 9 points better than the second horse, at least 10 better than anyone else. I would be interested in hearing about individual performances you think were better than that.
Title: Re: Frosted
Post by: miff on June 13, 2016, 12:58:52 PM
That gets subjective, also no one had Plechers filly,that you gave neg -6 or near that,anywhere near as fast.

Projecting/slaving off a horse that ran 2nd, 3rd or whatever ain\'t the way others make figures when there are enough data points in one turn races of similar distances to establish a constant variant.

Slaving off any horse except the winner, when same day data is available, is a slippery slope.
Title: Re: Frosted
Post by: TGJB on June 13, 2016, 01:05:13 PM
I was EXTREMELY conservative with that race, as you will see when we post it. And he ran the best figure of all time.
Title: Re: Frosted
Post by: prist on June 13, 2016, 01:07:35 PM
The horses that ran behind FROSTED is also (data.) Why avoid it?
Title: Re: Frosted
Post by: NormandyInvasion on June 13, 2016, 01:09:33 PM
Best Beyers of all time:


Horse   Year earned   Speed Figure   Cite
Groovy           1987   134   [1]
Groovy           1987   131   [1]
Ghostzapper   2004   128   [1]
Formal Gold   1997   126   [1]
Gentlemen   1997   126   
Will\'s Way   2007   126   [1]
Formal Gold   1997   125   [1]
Skip Away   1997   125   [1]
Bertrando   1993   125   
Sunday Silence   1989   124   
Easy Goer   1989   124   
Formal Gold   1997   124   [1]
Artax           1999   124   [1]
Ghostzapper   2004   124   
Midnight Lute   2007   124   
Frosted           2016   123   
Commentator   2005   123   
Artax           1999   123   [1]
Easy Goer   1989   122   
Alysheba   1988   122   
Holy Bull   1994   121   
Quality Road   2011   121   
American Pharoah2015   120
Title: Re: Frosted
Post by: miff on June 13, 2016, 01:13:15 PM
On your stuff only. Looking at the times of several races, it\'s easy to see you are over indulged by beaten lengths and not the clock. Several ordinary horses THAT DAY ran past the mile mark only 2-3points slower than Frosted, none of them are near the TG neg -2 or -3 range.
Title: Re: Frosted
Post by: TGJB on June 13, 2016, 01:20:57 PM
Uhhhh... what?

Just on time, unadjusted for weight, ground or variant, there\'s not another race at a mile or over that goes in a time/figure within 4 points. He went more than 2 seconds faster than Carina Mia.

And yes, the track did slow down a little as the day went on, not just for that race. And there was some wind, which can make a difference with that long a straightaway.
Title: Re: Frosted
Post by: TGJB on June 13, 2016, 01:23:12 PM
And? Your point?

Listen, I like those guys, what they sell is good value for the money. But a) there\'s a reason people pay $25 per track for ours, and b) what you see there is a function of using claiming pars, as I\'ve explained before.
Title: Re: Frosted
Post by: miff on June 13, 2016, 01:30:45 PM
In deep water re updated pars and updated parallel time charts being inferior to going off horses and backing into numbers.The track slowed later? Not according to time of the Belmont or the last race.

I\'ll leave it there.
Title: Re: Frosted
Post by: kencbs on June 13, 2016, 01:36:57 PM
Hopefully I can remember this when Mohaymen goes in the Travers
Title: Re: Frosted
Post by: prist on June 13, 2016, 01:39:06 PM
RE: a) there\'s a reason people pay $25 per track for ours

\"what they sell is good value for the money\"

CRITICAL ANALYSIS. ;-)
Title: Re: Frosted
Post by: johnnym on June 13, 2016, 01:58:19 PM
I wonder what AP may have developed into?
Title: Re: Frosted
Post by: prist on June 13, 2016, 02:05:13 PM
Maybe you can learn a thing or two from the Trumpster .... like stay on the attack.

Say enough good things about the competition and folks might use critical analysis and decide the cheaper option is the better value.
Title: Re: Frosted
Post by: TGJB on June 13, 2016, 02:14:31 PM
They are not our competition. Them being value at their price has nothing to do with us being value at ours. If you handle $100 a day or less you should be using them.
Title: Re: Frosted
Post by: NormandyInvasion on June 13, 2016, 03:06:06 PM
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> And? Your point?
>
> Listen, I like those guys, what they sell is good
> value for the money. But a) there\'s a reason
> people pay $25 per track for ours, and b) what you
> see there is a function of using claiming pars, as
> I\'ve explained before.


It\'s called conversation fodder, in response to a back and forth about the best numbers in history and what other performances could vie with the title that you are bestowing to Frosted.  As I\'d just looked up the list last night and had it at hand, I thought that a decent list of performances.  

If you\'re looking for someone other than Beyer, then the only other one I\'ve heard so far is TimeFormUS who gave him a point lower than AP.
Title: Re: Frosted
Post by: TGJB on June 13, 2016, 03:21:10 PM
The 123 Beyer for Frosted is at least ballpark, you can\'t compare generations using Beyer because of the par thing.

By the time we got to the 2004 DRF Expo Andy had realized (since I had discussed it here) why using pars doesn\'t work, and he said, sitting 3 feet from me, that they no longer used them. They clearly had used them historically, which is why the old figures come up so fast. And I have reason to believe they still do.

I\'m shocked at the TimeFormUS thing. No race AP ever ran is close to the figure Frosted just ran. That\'s not about accomplishment or who is a better horse, it\'s best performance vs best performance.
Title: Re: Frosted
Post by: mjellish on June 13, 2016, 03:59:13 PM
For what it\'s worth (and it isnt much considering i don\'t sell figures and am not a pro figure maker) i make my own figures along with a couple of guys.  And on our stuff we have Frosty running what would equate to TG -7.5 and that\'s AFTER breaking the race out and adjusting it down (slower) by a full point from the varient and what it works out to organically, which i\'m not sure we should be doing.  If anything its faster, not slower than that. You can\'t make it any slower IMO.  The horse freaked and exploded in the stretch.  Period.  Maybe he thought AP was still somewhere out there, in front of him still...
Title: Re: Frosted
Post by: ajkreider on June 13, 2016, 04:30:16 PM
Maybe they adjusted the fig, but last I saw the BC for AP they gave a 138, and Frosted got a 135 for the Mile.  AP\'s was the fastest BC ever and made him the equal highest-rated US racehorse (Cigar) - according to timeformUS.
Title: Re: Frosted
Post by: vagrant on June 13, 2016, 06:46:26 PM
Candy Ride earned a 123 in the 2003 Pacific Classic.

http://www.lanesend.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/DRF-Racing-PPs-Candy-Ride.pdf

Medaglia d\'Oro earned a 120 in the \'02 Jim Dandy.
Title: Re: Frosted
Post by: NormandyInvasion on June 13, 2016, 08:34:51 PM
Thanks Vagrant.  I thought it seemed a shorter list than I thought.  We thought Lawyer Ron had run a 120+ number once but haven\'t gone looking.