Interesting first leg to the Pick 6
Perhaps some value here in a pik 3 or a vertical play.
Assuming fast, firm and no scratches.(though I could see a defection or two)
Full field of 14.
Think it will take a TG 1 or thereabouts to win this race.
Money likely to migrate towards the #2 A Lot off the Elusive Quality jump up.
Ready for Rye might take some $ if he stays but turf #\'s look a tad slower.
Rocket Heat (a likely pacesetter) also should get bet.
Looking at this from two angles:
#1) Number Power: My top range projections: 2, 6, 7, 12 ( A Lot, Rocket Heat, Green Mask and Pure Sensation)
My mid range projections: 3, 4, 8, 9, 11, 13, 14
My Unknowns 1, 10
My too slow projection: 5
#2) Trip (race shape or whatever)
For a 6f turf sprint, not a lot of early speed, need to lead types. 6 entrants turning back form 7f and longer while 5 exit 5f turf sprints. 3 turf to dirt.
Expect Rocket Heat, Green Gatto to set pace.
With all this in mind, strong consideration for #12 Pure Sensation.
Main concerns: Gappy sheet and the GP layoff.
Positives:
Clement capable off layoff
Back # power strong enough to win.
Early foot and should enable a decent trip from 12 post.
Odds expected to be higher than the 15 to 1 ML.
Like to call this a Hit or Miss Engine Play.
Best of Luck
P.S. PDub-- you are truly being spoiled by your Warriors. Remind me of the 69 to 73 Knicks teams. The Team with a capital T!
Big day of racing Saturday, so don\'t want to take too much attention away from that. But.......
What a great win. They are truly a team, and just a pleasure to watch. I never miss a game, and believe me....we appreciate what we are watching. Great game from Steph, especially after listening to all of the garbage the last week or so.
I have the day off from work Monday, will be watching with a bunch of friends hoping to finish it off. Thanks for the kind words.
PS: Sharks back at the Tank Sunday night, what a great time for Bay Area fans.
Give a look to Guns Loaded, who would probably need to throw a new top to
take this. He had absolutely no chance on Derby Day, breaking from Longfield Ave in a race probably too short for him. Would really want more than 6/1 ml based on presence of faster foes.
Liking Chad in this race with ALOT
Good Luck
richiebee Wrote:
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> Give a look to Guns Loaded, who would probably
> need to throw a new top to
> take this. He had absolutely no chance on Derby
> Day, breaking from Longfield Ave in a race
> probably too short for him. Would really want more
> than 6/1 ml based on presence of faster foes.
I sometimes compare turn times as a measure of a horses improving or declining form. The turn time for Guns Loaded last race was noticeable off, say :22.4 raw.
So I watched the race replay. First he misses the start. Then rallies wide passing horses the hardest way possible. Then ran on evenly to be 5th! Absolutely not the race of a declining horse.
Very impressive. He starts outside again in pp 11 today and keeps Mario Gutierrez. His success in Ca was without Mario up. The horse is a dragster but I won\'t bet that jockey.
If Mario does his job this horse certainly looks capable - good choice good luck.
belmont3 Wrote:
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> Interesting first leg to the Pick 6
> Perhaps some value here in a pik 3 or a vertical
> play.
>
> Assuming fast, firm and no scratches.(though I
> could see a defection or two)
> Full field of 14.
>
> Think it will take a TG 1 or thereabouts to win
> this race.
> Money likely to migrate towards the #2 A Lot off
> the Elusive Quality jump up.
> Ready for Rye might take some $ if he stays but
> turf #\'s look a tad slower.
> Rocket Heat (a likely pacesetter) also should get
> bet.
>
> Looking at this from two angles:
> #1) Number Power: My top range projections: 2, 6,
> 7, 12 ( A Lot, Rocket Heat, Green Mask and Pure
> Sensation)
> My mid range projections: 3, 4,
> 8, 9, 11, 13, 14
> My Unknowns 1, 10
> My too slow projection: 5
> #2) Trip (race shape or whatever)
> For a 6f turf sprint, not a lot of early
> speed, need to lead types. 6 entrants turning back
> form 7f and longer while 5 exit 5f turf sprints. 3
> turf to dirt.
> Expect Rocket Heat, Green Gatto to set pace.
>
>
> With all this in mind, strong consideration for
> #12 Pure Sensation.
> Main concerns: Gappy sheet and the GP layoff.
>
> Positives:
> Clement capable off layoff
> Back # power strong enough to win.
> Early foot and should enable a decent trip from 12
> post.
> Odds expected to be higher than the 15 to 1 ML.
>
> Like to call this a Hit or Miss Engine Play.
>
> Best of Luck
>
> P.S. PDub-- you are truly being spoiled by your
> Warriors. Remind me of the 69 to 73 Knicks teams.
> The Team with a capital T!
I like this call.
Tremendous call on Pure Sensation. Hope you\'re alive going forward and cashed a nice ticket.
Hell of a pick!
Nice call, well done. Hope you crushed it.
NICE POP Non Belmont Bob !!!
great call. absolutely tremendous.
No 5
I hope you had a win bet.
dcost328 Wrote:
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> great call. absolutely tremendous.
Agreed on what a call.
I did chime in before the race that I liked the call......but i screwed up the verticals (I did not have the 5)......so now i need help on the horizontals or i have nothing to show for this.
Hope belmont3 bet it better on the betting than I did. Very good call
Thanks for the feedback.
The hit or miss engine started.
Just got out of Church and a nice surprise.
Claimed small exacta (the wheel only and not my larger keys) some win $ and a pik3.
Hope a few in the TG Dene rate fraternity were able to benefit.
Good luck the rest of the way.