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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: sekrah on June 10, 2016, 10:56:16 AM

Title: Friday Pick Thread
Post by: sekrah on June 10, 2016, 10:56:16 AM
Off work early, so going to play a few races today.

Belmont 3rd - #6 Theogony
Title: Re: Friday Pick Thread
Post by: sekrah on June 10, 2016, 11:07:01 AM
Pimlico 3rd - #6 Reach For Yield
Title: Re: Friday Pick Thread
Post by: sekrah on June 10, 2016, 11:36:09 AM
Woodbine 4th - #6 Rhythm Blues

Not sure why this one drifted, but he should run better 2nd off the layoff and going back to turf.
Title: Re: Friday Pick Thread
Post by: sekrah on June 10, 2016, 12:02:38 PM
Belmont 5th

Very vulnerable favorite in Kareena. Will be first time she gets challenged on the front.

I\'m going to try the #2 Appealing Maggie. Moving forward with good spacing. Best breeding. Looking sharp on the track.
Title: Re: Friday Pick Thread
Post by: cubfan0316 on June 10, 2016, 12:28:52 PM
breaks the track record, lol
Title: Re: Friday Pick Thread
Post by: sekrah on June 10, 2016, 12:33:56 PM
Belmont 6th - #4 Rock Eagle
Title: Re: Friday Pick Thread
Post by: drbillym on June 10, 2016, 12:43:00 PM
Nice trip. Nice call.
Title: Re: Friday Pick Thread
Post by: TGJB on June 10, 2016, 12:48:03 PM
I\'m fine with this but give reasons.
Title: Re: Friday Pick Thread
Post by: TGJB on June 10, 2016, 12:49:39 PM
If you don\'t have something to say before the race don\'t put it here afterward. Guy takes a shot at a 1/5 shot and you give him a hard time when he loses?
Title: Re: Friday Pick Thread
Post by: dcost328 on June 10, 2016, 12:51:32 PM
nice job so far today.
Title: Re: Friday Pick Thread
Post by: sekrah on June 10, 2016, 01:05:05 PM
Belmont 7th

Have to dislike the favorite again.  Speed has been holding up pretty well and I wouldn\'t want to be anywhere near the back today.  Adulator didn\'t break well or show any good speed in either of his first two starts.

#1 R Limo Joe.  Fast last time out after not firing off the layoff.  Nice six weeks into this. Pletcher always seems to get them running at Belmont at this time of the year.  Had a nice move up earlier in the Jersey Girl.
Title: Re: Friday Pick Thread
Post by: sekrah on June 10, 2016, 01:11:30 PM
Right idea, wrong horse.
Title: Re: Friday Pick Thread
Post by: sekrah on June 10, 2016, 01:15:21 PM
7th Pimlico - #5 Satan\'s Mistress.. 2nd off the layoff, ran fast last summer.  Always breaks well. Not much speed to the inside.
Title: Re: Friday Pick Thread
Post by: arosenzweig on June 10, 2016, 01:19:37 PM
Nice pick
Title: Re: Friday Pick Thread
Post by: sekrah on June 10, 2016, 01:37:36 PM
8th Belmont

#6 Always Sunshine got really good late last year and hasn\'t missed a beat so far as a 4yo. Consistent and might be getting even better.
Title: Re: Friday Pick Thread --9th Belmont
Post by: SoCalMan2 on June 10, 2016, 02:06:44 PM
at 7 min to post, there are two Chad Browns in this race that both look about the same, but one is 1-2 and the other is 8-1.  The 1 horse had a nice 3yo campaign and debuted at 4 with a 4 point jump up in the North American Debut.  The 2 horse is from South America, so although listed as a 5 year old is actual a late in the year 4yo.  She has run just as good a number and she has done it several times.  The horse that is 1-2 is 3 wins (two graded stakes wins) for 8 ties while the 8-1 is 7 wins (6 graded stakes wins) for 13 tries.  The odds must be crazy.  I say a healthy win bet on Dacita so long as she remains 5-1 or longer.  You may not win, but you will win at least 30% of the time in my view which is enough at the odds.
Title: Re: Friday Pick Thread
Post by: sekrah on June 10, 2016, 02:07:00 PM
Last picks.. Gotta go..

New York S. - #2 Dacita
Bel Gold Cup - #13 Now We Can
Title: Re: Friday Pick Thread --9th Belmont
Post by: SoCalMan2 on June 10, 2016, 02:18:19 PM
SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> at 7 min to post, there are two Chad Browns in
> this race that both look about the same, but one
> is 1-2 and the other is 8-1.  The 1 horse had a
> nice 3yo campaign and debuted at 4 with a 4 point
> jump up in the North American Debut.  The 2 horse
> is from South America, so although listed as a 5
> year old is actual a late in the year 4yo.  She
> has run just as good a number and she has done it
> several times.  The horse that is 1-2 is 3 wins
> (two graded stakes wins) for 8 ties while the 8-1
> is 7 wins (6 graded stakes wins) for 13 tries.
> The odds must be crazy.  I say a healthy win bet
> on Dacita so long as she remains 5-1 or longer.
> You may not win, but you will win at least 30% of
> the time in my view which is enough at the odds.

Fortunately, she dropped to 9-2 only after I already placed my bet with a minute to go.  I forgot to mention, she beat Tepin last year, so she ain\'t no slouch.