1. Governor Malibu 12-1
2. Destin 6-1
3. Cherry Wine 8-1
4. Suddenbreakingnews 10-1
5. Stradivari 5-1
6. Gettysburg 30-1
7. Seeking the Soul 30-1
8. Forever d\'Oro 30-1
9. Trojan Nation 30-1
10. Lani 20-1
11. Exaggerator 9-5
12. Brody\'s Cause 20-1
13. Creator 10-1
Call me a sucker, but I\'m warming up to the Lani train.
I like Lani\'s line and his price to hit the board, surprised more here aren\'t on the bandwagon.
While he is not a maiden, he is the first Japanese owned horse to start in all three of the triple crown races. That is if he finds the starting gate. The proposition is whether he or SBN will be the trailer.
But its a track bias thing. If he were trained by Baffert, ridden by Smith and owned by Winstar he\'d be 7/2.
Good point about the 7/2 price with more flashy connections He owes me money, so I need about 20:1 at this point.
I\'d be more confident @ 2M but I\'ll also chase, furthermore hoping 20/1 holds.
I think Lani\'s gonna back up after Derby and Preakness, especially after all the daydreams he\'s been having about horse stud heaven in front of big crowds.
Tavasco,
Lani could be trained and owned by God and he wouldn\'t be 7/2.
I will put him in the winner\'s circle, but he is a horse that doesn\'t get out of a gallop for most of his races, then runs a bit after the race is over, gets bigger TG figs than his race performance deserves because he is so slow he is going to lose ground (not questioning the figure, just the fact that he will almost always lose ground, because he can\'t put himself in the race). And let\'s not forget, he doesn\'t train well. A common horse on his best day.
I guess 20-1 is a fair price and I hate to criticize favorites, but this horse gets a lot of talk on this board for somebody who hasn\'t cracked the superfecta. Yes, I know he came close in the Preakness, but does anybody think this horse is going to get a BETTER race setup in the Belmont than he got in the Preakness? I can\'t imagine 3 jockeys whipping and slashing out of the gate saturday to set this race up for a slow horse to run by late.
Jim
Well, as far as cracking the superfecta, he is 3 for 8 and he\'s won almost a million and a half. He even stumbled to start the UAE Derby. He ran pretty wide there, too.
The pace will probably be good: the biggest fear of Exaggerator and the closers will be race-theft on the front. The memory of those recent thefts will dominate: it\'s the latest mantra that closers don\'t win the Belmont.
That said, Lani will probably be a little closer as he won\'t likely change his pace for this one. I am more worried about a fast surface and whether he takes to Big Sandy.
I read that he is supposed to be calming down a little these days. Don\'t know if the jock will matter, but my guess is that it won\'t: this horse seems to only have two speeds: second gear and fourth.
I think he\'ll be about 10 or 12 to 1. I will use him in the top two spots. Not sure if I can key with Exaggerator, so I will probably try to hit him in doubles from Friday or Saturday horizontals or find another key horse.
Lun Lani Lun!
Leamas
So say the early pace is extreme and to the advantage of the closers.
How would one figure Lanni to outkick either Brody, Creater, SBN, Exaggerator, or even Genl Malibu??
Good Luck,
Joe B
I give less than 5% chance the pace is that fast. Far more likely we just have a very strung out field. Lani won\'t be on the pace nor hanging out last.
Seeking The Soul has some speed and a trainer good at surprises.
He can\'t outkick any of those (SBN has the best kick, IMHO). His chances rest on the kick of the others being all used up by the final 1/4. I\'ve mentioned this before, but even the winners of this race crawl home.
Tortoise and the hare . . . and at 12F, even a lot tortoises look like used up hares.
Any of you guys know where you are?
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Any of you guys know where you are?
I was waiting for this.
The opening number for Guys and Dolls?
Lani will outkick those horses you named through superior number and pattern power [If they don\'t look right, Jerry, remember the Japanese read from right to left and down to up...].
Leamas
That\'s redboarding, P-Dub.
1. 4th or 5th fastest horse in the field, behind the fastest by only about 1 pt, and he has an excuse in his best race.
2. Moving forward.
3. Easily the best price of those 4-5 horses.
Sure, spacing isn\'t great, but sometimes horses just keep going, especially 3yos this time of the year. Is it the perfect looking setup for him? No. At 20-1 and training well is he worth a crack? Sure!
One other thing.. It took Lani about 4 jumps after the wire in the Preakness to close those last two lengths on Nyquist, Cherry Wine and Stradavari.. He got Exaggerator a few jumps after that. NO ONE was moving better than him at the wire, and he lost by 5 lengths after being 3w/4w.
Agree was very surprised by his sheets pattern and number.
One thing for sure,He is the fittest horse going in.
Lani won\'t hit board.
big question.. does sbn x out or is poised for a new top off that little backward move?
body\'s cause has a nice pattern.
I have watched the derby replay a plenty of times my question, is the backward move performance based or trip based?
20 horses a few of them did get pinched especially Creator. How you factor that into a number I do not know.
Good Luck
If track plays as fast as it is so far today, frontrunners will appeal more tomrrow for Belmont Stakes (and other dirt races). Kareena just went 6 furlongs in under 1.08