So Nyquist \"was treated for a fever\" and shipping to Belmont was delayed. Not looking good, we should learn more today.
Being reported temp back to normal still waiting on blood work..
Nyquist officially out.
Good ole Dougie.
A totally shocking development that you could see coming a mile away.
\"A totally shocking development that you could see coming a mile away\"
...I\'ll bite. How did you see Nyquist spiking a fever with an elevated white count?
It didn\'t have to be that, but I agree it was going to be something, and he was better off with it being that than running in the Belmont. I told Elliot before the race something was coming soon.
Idle speculation
\"Idle Speculation\" aka \"betting on horse races\" ;-)
Also:
\"Yeah I\'d be pretty shocked if Exaggerator doesn\'t, and if Nyquist does.
Actually, I\'d take... I don\'t know, +200? I would bet that Nyquist never races again?\"
Posted that the day after the race. Still feel pretty good about the line I set, I might even have been looking for too much.
I had similar PUBLIC idle speculation re Eight Belles, Go For Wand, I Want Revenge, Barbaro, and a few others I forget right now. The one I got wrong was Rachel in the Preakness, but Asmussen was smart enough not to come back in the Belmont.
If you want to go back far enough, I had one of my (not public) fights with Dickinson about running Da Hoss 3 times in 5 weeks. He won the Jersey Derby with the third one, then got sick. Michael, like you, said it was a coincidence.
Similar situation with Bet Me Best. Ran big on 2 weeks rest as a 2yo, I told Prestonwood it was gonna cost us down the road. Won the Hutcheson, then disappeared for a while.
The next time you \"predict\" a horse will break down by reading numbers on a piece of paper,let me know. You get 10-1 every time.
Not necessarily break down, but tell you what. You have my Preakness write-up, where I point out the similarities between Nyquist and Barbaro. My comments for Barbaro in the 2006 Preakness are in the Archives, as are my comments for Eight Belles in the Derby. In her case, read both the comments on her individually and in the bottom line.
What we\'ll do is this. Next time one comes up and I say it, contact me, and we\'ll do something like bet the horse doesn\'t make more than one start after the next one for the next 6 months.
Getting sick was the best thing that could have happened to Nyquist.
Maybe he just doesn\'t like the rain,he had the high WBC after the FL Derby also in the rain..
Or maybe its easier to sell a horse with an excuse.
Barbaro had a turf stride. Perhaps the stress of racing on a hard dirt track with limited time to recover had something to do with it.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Or perhaps it\'s exactly what I said, beforehand.
TGJB,
Don\'t understand your point at all with regards to Nyquist. Eight belles, u had a point, lots of very fast figures, tight spacing, squeezing the lemon dry. Unfortunately it resulted in a death, not a bounce. Nyquist was not too fast too soon, if anything, his problem going into the derby was he was flatlining and was slow on figures. His spacing before the derby was fine, under raced, if anything. And it looks like u have his preakness about as fast as has derby and when u factor the suicidal pace of the preakness, it might even be a tad better (I know u don\'t factor pace). So the horse fired in the derby and fired in the preakness. Now his blood count is a little high and you (and others on this board) are \"ha, told you so\".
U had AP as 50/50 to even get to the derby last year, if I recall, then predicted problems throughout the triple crown for him.
Identifying betting opportunities off of predicted bounces is one thing, but the \"I told you so\" when a fragile animal gets a cold and skips a race he should maybe never have been pointed to (after the Preakness) is another.
Rob
Rob-- Really, you don\'t understand it at all.
I don\'t remember the AP 50/50 thing, but I assume that was connected to scheduling, with his late start.
Bringing up \"too soon too fast\" is a straw man, I didn\'t say that was either true here or relevant.
Yes, Nyquist\'s spacing going into the Derby was great. Just like Barbaro\'s was. And they got the explosion. Just like with Barbaro. And I made completely clear in my pre-race comments I saw it that way, when I compared them, and explained why. So while you may not agree, I have a hard time understanding you not understanding it.
I also said on this board that an X was coming soon, but not necessarily next time out, and I said in my Preakness comments that if he hung on for another one I was going to unload against him in the Belmont, so it\'s pretty clear I didn\'t think he had to do it in the Preakness. And unfortunately we\'re not going to get a chance to find out about the Belmont.
By the way-- Bill Finley did a piece a couple of years ago saying the idea horses couldn\'t run well on short rest was silly, and he gave anecdotal evidence-- Onion in the Whitney, CC in the Met/Belmont, Derby/Preakness winner, others. Yes, you can sometimes get good efforts close together back to back. But as I said to Bill at the time, check out what happens to them after that-- Onion didn\'t get to the gate again for 13-14 months, CC was never the same, most horses going for the TC, etc.
There is a question that is begging to be asked -- what about Exaggerator? The Belmont will be his 6th race in 2016 starting 2/15 of this year. The Belmont would have been Nyquist\'s 5th race in 2016 starting 2/15 of this year. Nyquist had a bit of spacing between race 1 and 2. Exaggerator has had no spacing since his first race this year.
Strike,
That is the million dollar question. How much juice is left in the lemon???
Does he run another 0, if so Destin who looks right now as the only speed in the race is the only one whom has been in that neighborhood. I\'m sure with Nyquist out we will get another surprise or 2, maybe even an energizer bunny or Exaggerator rabbit? It certainly does not bode well for the deep closers at this point barring collapse up front.
Keith D. has said it a few times about Ex\'s quick recovery ability and apparently he has not lost any weight and was back on the track yesterday. I\'m sure if they can squeeze one more out they will be on sabbatical until a Jim Dandy/Travers Spa run.
Good luck,
Frank D.
I\'m probably going to do a seminar, so I\'ll wait until then for my comments. But yes, that\'s pretty much the question in handicapping the Belmont.
TGJB,
Yes, I don\'t get it. Nyquists derby was 2 points better than his 2 year old top. No big jump up. And comparisons to Barbaro are way off base. Barbaro effectively died in the Preakness or as a result of the Preakness. Nyquist paired his derby according to you, So you weren\'t right, you were wrong (if we are counting figures and not racetrack results, which is what you often say). Because he spikes a fever after the pair up, we point and say \"told you so?\"
Moving on. Your board, You can declare victory off the elevated white blood cell count.
Rob
a) three points better, not two b) the Barbaro comparison was made before the Preakness, not after, c) I made the point myself about less development from his 2yo top (\"Barbaro had developed much more to get to the big top, and the extreme outcome hopefully will not be the same\"), d) in my NEXT SENTENCE I said \"And if he does manage to throw in one more good one now, boy are we going to bet against him in the Belmont...\", e) show me \"we told you so\", or declaring victory\".
This is an \"I told you so\" post if there ever was one.
Correct. And it\'s not about Nyquist.