11 pm after exaggerator hangs the first L on Nyquist and not a lot on the board regarding the race. Perhaps all of us are \"decompressing\" after a few days of heavy gambling.
One persons thoughts on the race:
1. Considering track condition and the amount of speed that seemed to be in the race, far from a surprising result.
2. As a guy who bet exaggerator in both the derby and preakness and has been anti-Nyquist for a long time, I have to say Nyquist ran pretty well, considering the pace of the race.
3. Speaking of pace, a pretty dumb ride by Mario Gutierrez. Jockey critiquing happens every single race, every single day, but it see,s deserved here. Nyquist left hard, so as not to get trapped down inside, a good move, but once the 4 backed off out of the first turn, did Mario really have to go after uncle Lino at the 22 quarter? He was more afraid of uncle Lino getting away than he was of confirmed quality closer, top challenger and possible mud lover, exaggerator. Yikes. Awful ride IMO. Hard to say what happens if he rates a bit, but Nyquist wasn\'t packing it in until late.certainly would have been closer.
4. Kent D. Gave the winner a helluva ride. He won by 3 and was never in doubt late, but if it had been closer, the ground he saved and the inside out move would have been crucial
5. I still don\'t have a handle on exaggerator. Hard to say that about a horse I bet in both legs of the triple crown so far, but in the derby I had to use him what appeared to me to be the \"perfect\" derby sheet, and in the preakness he figured to benefit from the pace and surface, while running very well in defeat in the derby. I say tough to have a handle because the detractors will point to another wet track and fast pace, like the santa Anita derby. But this horse fires hard every time.
6. Stradivari ran ok with a wide trip. Suspect his TG figure may overstate his performance, but he ran at least ok. Could/should be heard from later in the year.
7. Haven\'t ready any comments from the connections yet, but am guessing we may not see either Nyquist or exaggerator In the belmont. But we will see.
Rob
Regarding Exaggerator, Keith D. Told the Nbc reporter immediately after the race that they were going. A bit surprising given he hadn\'t even checked on the horse yet but sounds like the intention is there.
Yeah I\'d be pretty shocked if Exaggerator doesn\'t, and if Nyquist does.
Actually, I\'d take... I don\'t know, +200? I would bet that Nyquist never races again?
Just saw a clip of O\'Neill on TV saying if all is ok with the horse it\'s on to NY for Nyquist. That interview was taken immediately aft the race.
Exaggerator with a Beyer 101 and a TF in same area, both like TG 1/4.Race featured fastest first quarter in history of Preakness and an off the charts early pace figure.Pace adjusted figures have EXag and Nyquist even at wire.Exaggerator one of very few that ran inside yesterday and did well but heavy rain preceding Preakness could have changed surface.
Both EXAG and NYQ reportedly heading for Belmont, assuming they are ok after a few days.
Pea brained rides by jocks on 2,3,4 horses set up pretty easy win for Exaggerator, Nyquist uber game try.
ringato3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> 11 pm after exaggerator hangs the first L on
> Nyquist and not a lot on the board regarding the
> race. Perhaps all of us are \"decompressing\"
> after a few days of heavy gambling.
>
> One persons thoughts on the race:
>
> 1. Considering track condition and the amount of
> speed that seemed to be in the race, far from a
> surprising result.
>
> 2. As a guy who bet exaggerator in both the
> derby and preakness and has been anti-Nyquist for
> a long time, I have to say Nyquist ran pretty
> well, considering the pace of the race.
>
> 3. Speaking of pace, a pretty dumb ride by Mario
> Gutierrez. Jockey critiquing happens every
> single race, every single day, but it see,s
> deserved here. Nyquist left hard, so as not to
> get trapped down inside, a good move, but once the
> 4 backed off out of the first turn, did Mario
> really have to go after uncle Lino at the 22
> quarter? He was more afraid of uncle Lino getting
> away than he was of confirmed quality closer, top
> challenger and possible mud lover, exaggerator.
> Yikes. Awful ride IMO. Hard to say what
> happens if he rates a bit, but Nyquist wasn\'t
> packing it in until late.certainly would have been
> closer.
>
> 4. Kent D. Gave the winner a helluva ride. He
> won by 3 and was never in doubt late, but if it
> had been closer, the ground he saved and the
> inside out move would have been crucial
>
> 5. I still don\'t have a handle on exaggerator.
> Hard to say that about a horse I bet in both legs
> of the triple crown so far, but in the derby I had
> to use him what appeared to me to be the \"perfect\"
> derby sheet, and in the preakness he figured to
> benefit from the pace and surface, while running
> very well in defeat in the derby. I say tough to
> have a handle because the detractors will point to
> another wet track and fast pace, like the santa
> Anita derby. But this horse fires hard every
> time.
>
> 6. Stradivari ran ok with a wide trip.
The pace in the Derby was fast and Mario had Nyquist right there in it. They were too confident with what they had. The move Exaggerator made on the backstretch was fully expected by me. This horse knows how to run on the rail. Go back and look at his Saratoga Special race and 2 Juvenile races at Kee. Kent D gave him too much work to do in the Derby stretch or he might have won.
The questions now are how much did Nyquist back up? 2 Points? And how much was from pace fatigue? It didn\'t bother him in the Derby until the last 100 yards. The best horse won yesterday. The Derby will probably be the last time Nyquist ever beats Exagerrator at a Mile and 1/4. And there are others out there poised to begin catching up with Nyquist. Perhaps he should run back on Belmont Day. But in the Met Mile....
Regarding Strativari where was Mohaymen yesterday? He could have done some damage. People are afraid to take a chance these days. Exaggerator moves on and now he becomes the target. Brodys Cause and others will be waiting. It will be another excellent wagering day!!
With both of them the issue will not be about pace, pedigree, numbers, or track condition---it will be about what is left in the tank.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Silver,
I don\'t think the paces in the derby and preakness were comparable, at all.
My first view on the derby pace was that it was way above par and I gave Nyquist credit for attending it and still having plenty left in the tank. Saw figures from 3 pace figure makers and it was just above average. Not super fast, which I found surprising. But then I saw the mike smith interview after the derby and he said that it wasn\'t the pace that best Danzig candy, he just didn\'t run well. Smith said 45 and change on that track was really 46 and change. Then andy Beyer said that the track variant for derby day was easily the fastest in the last 20 years for a derby and he also concluded the pace was just above average.
Yesterday though, the pace was brutal, contested and draining. It wasn\'t just s fast first quarter like AP ran in the slop last year, it was fast and more importantly keenly contested through 3 quarters with jockeys pushing their horses throughout (almos foolishly IMO)
If both these horses run back, it would SEEM that Nyquist had more of a gut wrenched yesterda. But we will see.
I normally hate trainer speak. But I found it interesting that Keith desormeaux gave his horse little chance to beat Nyquist the last 3 times they met, multiple times saying that Nyquist would have to stub his toe. But before yesterday he was extremely confident, based on the fact that his horse recovers quickly from big efforts in his opinion and he felt that was an equalizer. Now, who knows if he is right, and I don\'t think it is why he won yesterday, but it could come into play in 3 weeks, if he is right. (Or it could be useless trainer speak - my favorite is Kiaran McLaughlin, as nothing is a worse kiss of death thsn. Kiarsn feeling good about his horse. I know people that speak to him regularly and for years I lost a small fortune on horses he \"felt good about\". And watched many of his horses that he never talked about win at bigger odds..... Trainer speak... Sort of like political promises...
Rob
About 8 years ago I was the guest of another Trainer who Karian used to work for and it was Donn Day. We got in the elevator and Karian lastly stepped in and leaned into the corner. He had the 3-5 Fav in the Donn and boldly said \"speed favoring inside strip today, gotta feel gold about my chances later on.\"
The horse looked limp legged every step of the way. I don\'t think he hit the board.
Nyquist has been confidently ridden in every race. Went 5 wide in the Juvenile and 3 wide in Derby. We don\'t know if he could sit a pocket trip like Exag did yesterday on the far turn. He is a nice horse but I\'m telling you there are others out there about to begin catching up with him. If you got him in the Derby at 2-1 in a 20 horse field then more power to you. As the host here said it\'s a game of percentages.
I\'m going to be interested in seeing the wind info. First quarter is basically a straightaway at that distance, half time much less crazy.
Lani got beat 1 1/2 for second. Ouch.
JB,
Wind picked up with the heavier rain in the 30 minutes prior to the Preakness. Not the gloom and doom predicted but it was all around the Baltimore area.
I think when you do the day you will find the tale of 3 race tracks on the dirt.
Race 1- Sloppy
Race 3-11 Muddy with standing water at the rail in the 1 path and probably a new designation QSX- Quick sand rail -If anyone saw the NBC coverage with Donna Brothers sinking several inches from the 2 and 3 paths when she stepped down there.
Voluntario may get the biggest X ever on a sheet!
Then changing again for the Preakness after the heavy rain preceding the race.
Someone on TVG noted that the first quarter split for the Preakness was faster than the first quarter splits for the 6f races on the undercard. Is there a big difference in run-ups?
Which way was the wind blowing?
Not sure about the rail on dirt, but it looked look a rare dead grass rail Tiger Ride etc.). Jocks looked to be trying to stay away by the Dixie.
Yes, Jerry.
He and Cherry were even before they turned for home. Lanerie took the inside track and Lani went outside. Lani was flying late--looking to be gaining even faster than Cherry.
My temptation is to call Lani the Belmont winner right now but Bushido/Samurai code forbid such displays of arrogance and pride.
Leamas
No clue on direction pertaining to the track, was only there once in 78. Front came in from South East if that helps out?
Yes. Virtually no run up at 6f. First quarters and final times come up about 4/5 slow.
Pimlico sprint run up in sprints is 5 feet,Preakness 30 feet
Lani has never \"flown\" since he got off a plane, total slug has never run a split in two races resembling fast
And yet he just got beat 1 1/2 for second. Things might look different with a different ride and rider.
Lani gigantic pace set up in both races here, needs to get rid of woody he sports all too often, breeding great
Of course, Miff, it\'s retrograde motion (common in the Zen state). The leading horses were moonwalking. I might point out that his last published work at Belmont wasn\'t bad at about 1:01. At least they were working on it.
We could check his splits for the last 3/16, too, but I wonder about the refusal to ride him a little closer to the pace and also (as TGJB points out) how it would have looked if, for example Ranerie, had been on him.
Leamas
Leamas,
Painfully looked at all his races overseas,weak fields.Made a decent long wide run 4 back but otherwise he\'s been one kinda paced.Training regimen and jock, yea.
Don\'t look at late splits for him or anyone in Preakness,they are horrifying.
Mike
I know, Mike, but I had a thing for Loni Anderson and the name is so close I keep looking for reasons to love the creature.
L
Lea,
Don\"t forget Lani is hay,oats and sushi(no lasix)
Mike
Alas, she\'s probably gray now, too.
Leamas
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Which way was the wind blowing?
>
> Not sure about the rail on dirt, but it looked
> look a rare dead grass rail Tiger Ride etc.).
> Jocks looked to be trying to stay away by the
> Dixie.
I could write a book on just this . .. the jocks who understood the prevailing realities . . . the jocks who didn\'t . . .
It was/is a nor\'easter swirling counterclockwise creeping up from the south. Weatherundeground had it out of the ENE but it probably changed through the day. The Pimlico stretch run is run roughly North to South. All that said, there wasn\'t much wind to speak of.
Wind was nominal out of the North North East (home stretch tail wind) 5-7mph at race time. Not enough to have an impact on an equine.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Which way was the wind blowing?
>
> Not sure about the rail on dirt, but it looked
> look a rare dead grass rail Tiger Ride etc.).
> Jocks looked to be trying to stay away by the
> Dixie.
The wind was blowing hard in their face up the backstretch/at their backs home stretch and start. Track was way worse for Preakness then the middle of card races as well.
Earlier in the day we were commenting on how little the tractor pulling around the starting gate was sinking into the track, noticeably deeper marks before the Preakness. At least by my eye
Gerard Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Wind was nominal out of the North North East (home
> stretch tail wind) 5-7mph at race time. Not enough
> to have an impact on an equine.
Wow it appeared stronger than that. Not disagreeing but in the elements I can say that 30 mins before the race and into the race was the only time all day the wind blew hard enough for the rain to come down side ways, maybe it appeared stronger than it was?
The fact that Lani ran at all after how he acted before the race is crazy/impressive- not sure which?
He was an absolute hand full, they clearly had to change the saddling procedure, keep him off by himself, it was a 30 minute fight. He seemed like he absolutely hated everyone and everything yesterday.
It\'s possible, always better to be there in person.
That\'s good information, thanks. I kept looking for him on the screen and that is, as you suggest, noteworthy. Too much ginseng bad for stallion?
They\'ve been grooming this guy like a bonsai tree and maybe that\'s not what he wants to be.
Leamas
That\'s funny you weren\'t there but \" the 5-7 mph winds had no effect on the equine.\"
WTF was I thinking 22 years of pouring concrete and doing roofs using my own money canceling pours and pulling crews off roofs when it was raining sideways? The wind was only 5-7 MPH!!! BRILLIANT. Think of the overtime I could have saved?
Looking at the replay and checking the conditions of the flags around the course during the race replay lead me to believe the weather beacon data is correct, moderate winds that should not have affected the runners. It\'s always better to be there, but I can also tell when a flag is blowing sideways.
Don\'t cut him. He\'s got a lot of good genes in him.
On 3:
Looked to me as if Gutierrez tried to duplicate American Pharaoh\'s run last year in similar conditions: gun to front, relax, finish. For whatever reason, Nyquist wouldn\'t relax. I read somewhere that these were trainer instructions, to avoid traffic. Given the toll of the first half mile, he ran a gutsy stretch. But there\'s no doubt that he\'s no American Pharaoh--not as fast and not as tractable.
meatloaf Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> On 3:
> Looked to me as if Gutierrez tried to duplicate
> American Pharaoh\'s run last year in similar
> conditions: gun to front, relax, finish. For
> whatever reason, Nyquist wouldn\'t relax. I read
> somewhere that these were trainer instructions, to
> avoid traffic. Given the toll of the first half
> mile, he ran a gutsy stretch. But there\'s no
> doubt that he\'s no American Pharaoh--not as fast
> and not as tractable.
He didn\'t relax because he had another horse at his throat latch the entire time. The one time AP had a horse similarly at his, he lost.
He should\'ve taken back when he had the chance at the first turn. The hellbent for the lead tactics cost them the race, not a better horse.
NormandyInvasion Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> He should\'ve taken back when he had the chance at
> the first turn. The hellbent for the lead tactics
> cost them the race, not a better horse.
Viewed the race similarly. Nyquist was dead game, but Uncle Lino took a big enough piece of him to leave him vulnerable. That head to head was a ding dong thing of some beauty.
Thought the early fractions were too severe for either of them to endure, but Lino\'s fade is likely at least in part to a tendon injury that has his future in doubt.
Really felt I had a wicked coup going until it was clear the speed duel was official and I agree it was Gutierrez who stole my wager, though a horse can break down for any reason.
I\'m high on the Mo\'s and Uncle Lino is very closely bred to Shackleford on the female side and I had fond memories of that Preakness.
Its a long T.C. dry spell, but something says the breakthrough will offset the pain.
Another service reporting Preakness early pace fastest they ever recorded in 25 years.
I know one thing that wind was blowing right into the clubhouse turn tent, I was there with a bunch of friends and the wife, the ladies had a rough time with it, it wasn\'t so much a straight on wind but a wind coming from the top of the end of the backstretch diagonally right across to the clubhouse turn, pretty strong at times
A lot of Gutierrez bad ride talking on Byk this AM,Beyer calling it the worse jock ride since the Bid and Smarty.
johnnym Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> A lot of Gutierrez bad ride talking on Byk this
> AM,Beyer calling it the worse jock ride since the
> Bid and Smarty.
O\'Neill already took full responsibility. Kid rode to orders.
Exactly, stable rider just like the old days. If he told him to hold the horse he would, extremely loyal family style operation. O\'Neill made a bad tactical call, won the battle but lost the war. He is not worried about getting fired either and they all feel bad for the horse himself they hold in high regard. I thought he would let any speed go by and get outside, normally the case when you feel you are have the best horse, giving up ground loss for a more comfortable position. That is what worked in the Derby, the race was won by the first turn just as it was lost by the first turn Saturday.
Heard him take the heat,maybe a bit over confidant going in.
People talk sometimes as if its the Jock who runs the race. At the end of the day they ride the race, not run it. Nyquist has still never taken dirt. And when Ex took the lead and dropped over on him he Nyq sure didnt wait long to veer back out and get out of that kickback.
IMO, and its only an opinion, i dunno what else the jock could have done. He was on a horse who had never eaten dirt and probably wouldn\'t care for it. He rode him more or less the only way he could have to avoid taking dirt after drawing inside of a lot of other speed.
Well said. I said before he was 5 wide in the Juvy and 3 wide in the Derby. He has never sat in the pocket like Exag did on the far turn and we still don\'t know if he can.
The pace in the Preakness projected to be very fast and he projected to be wide. Or he could have tried to do something he has never done before. Rate inside or in traffic...
MJ,
Respect your opinion, but think you are WAY offbase.
Tell me why Mario has to attack down the backstretch. The 4 had backed off, the 2 was on the lead, Mario was on the outside in a nice stalking position, why go attack Uncle Lino. No way that was to avoid taking dirt. Just stupid race riding.
Sure, the horse doesn\'t want to take dirt, but that had nothing to do with the over aggressive move down the backstretch. He and Uncle Lino ding donging down the backside only makes sense if the biggest concern Mario had was Uncle Lino getting away from him, which was silly, relative to the quality horse behind him.
Don\'t get me wrong, I am thrilled with the decision, as I bet Exaggerator in both legs of this triple crown (a bit on Danzig Candy in the Derby), but a strange ride IMO. When i watch the replay, I see him pushing on the horse, not a Palace Malice Derby ride, where Smith lost control of the horse and he was run off.
Rob
mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> And when Ex took the lead and dropped over
> on him he Nyq sure didnt wait long to veer back
> out and get out of that kickback.
I\'m not sure if that was Nyquist or Gutierrez that wanted the quick lane-change, or maybe both, but it sure didn\'t take them long to get back out, did it?
> IMO, and its only an opinion, i dunno what else
> the jock could have done.
I tend to think this more than anything, and fwiw my feeling on Gutierrez is it\'s possible there is no worse rider who has won more. The race set up very poorly for them, and panned out not so well. Horse ran pretty game in defeat, and life goes on.
I think his real masterpiece of the weekend was in the BES, which was about the ride he gave Donworth in the Big \'Cap.
Having watched the replay now a few times, I am kinda thinking Velazquez did Stradivari no favors. I wonder, if he drops him to the rail, do we have a different story? Rail didn\'t harm Exaggerator or Cherry Wine, and could he have given Stradivari his head a little more and not fought with him so much? Kent D said he walked Exaggerator down to the rail during the parade/warm-up and thought it looked fine, so went for it, I guess Velazquez didn\'t, or didn\'t agree?
ringato3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> MJ,
>
> Respect your opinion, but think you are WAY
> offbase.
>
> Tell me why Mario has to attack down the
> backstretch. The 4 had backed off, the 2 was on
> the lead, Mario was on the outside in a nice
> stalking position, why go attack Uncle Lino. No
> way that was to avoid taking dirt. Just stupid
> race riding.
>
> Sure, the horse doesn\'t want to take dirt, but
> that had nothing to do with the over aggressive
> move down the backstretch. He and Uncle Lino ding
> donging down the backside only makes sense if the
> biggest concern Mario had was Uncle Lino getting
> away from him, which was silly, relative to the
> quality horse behind him.
>
> Don\'t get me wrong, I am thrilled with the
> decision, as I bet Exaggerator in both legs of
> this triple crown (a bit on Danzig Candy in the
> Derby), but a strange ride IMO. When i watch the
> replay, I see him pushing on the horse, not a
> Palace Malice Derby ride, where Smith lost control
> of the horse and he was run off.
>
> Rob
I gotta say, you\'re off base here. I just watched the replay.
Gutierrez did not push this horse down the backstretch. Leaving the gate he breaks sharply, veers out a bit to get the #4 off his flank while the #2 drives up inside of him. The 2 of them head around the turn into the backstretch. At no point is Gutierrez scrubbing on him, urging him, or anything else other than sitting on him. Nyqvist is doing it on his own, because at that point that\'s what the horse wants to do. He leaves the gate flying, and is content to stay up front. Talking about Nyqvist. I don\'t think strangling the horse, which is what it would have took to slow him down, was a good idea either.
Its the horse that is doing the work. I don\'t know why people think horses are cars, you just hit the gas or the breaks and they do whatever they want you to do. They are animals, 1200+ pound animals, and if they want to do something there isn\'t much a 115 pound man can do about it.
Gutierrez rode the race O\'Neill wanted him to. Stay outside, stay up front. Nyquist gave a tremendous effort considering the wicked pace. But blaming Gutierrez for the race ride, IMO isn\'t fair.
P-Dub,
I read the O\'Neil comments and I guess that means they must be true. But after the horse settled beautifully off a 45 and change half in the Derby, why would he instruct Mario to quarter horse this horse to the lead.
As for being pushed or not, we will have to agree to disagree. Yes, he isn\'t whipping and slashing, for sure. But after the 4 momentarily backed off, he is moving his hands shaking the horse a bit, which I think looks like asking him to go. (otherwise why do it).
Now, while I think it was a bad ride by Mario, it is nowhere near the rise the absolute neanderthal gave the ride on the 4. J.Toledo, who shouldn\'t be allowed in races of this magnitude, was trying to do exactly what with Awesome Speed? he leaves hard, gets outsprinted, Ok. But then not realizing they are going 45 and change setting apparently the fast variant adjusted preakness splits every, decides to whip and slash approaching the far turn to keep pressing the pace. If he was a rabbit for Exaggerator, good ride. Otherwise, ????
I think Exaggerator was the best horse on the day, on that surface and was going to win. Don\'t want to take anything away from him. But got a feeling the margin was going to be quite a bit different with anything close to a more normal/patient ride.
Rob
Rob,
I guess we disagree here. NYQ was drawn inside with speed to his inside and out. They all broke well. I don\'t see how you could expect the jock to try to back down NYQ on the backstretch with Lino to his inside, Awesome Speed to his outside and Collected and Strad right there behind. It\'s not like Lino and Nyquist drew off by 5 lengths on the field. They were all right there.
Assuming you could even get the horse to do it, why would you pull Nyquist back to let one cross over in front of him while being pinned inside by another? So you can be stuck behind two horses taking dirt for the first time ever? That would have been the definition of a bad ride.
Had Nyq drawn outside they would have had options. But he didn\'t. The horse ran how he had to run to not take dirt. It was a horrible set up for him. He ran really well IMO. I don\'t fault the jock at all.
As an aside, I doubt NYQ runs in the Belmont. If I owned him I wouldn\'t. I would give him enough time to forget about this race, rebuild his energy and confidence while pointing towards the Travers.
IMO, Doug thought he had a \'Pharoah clone and gave instructions for a wire job. Afterwards he said he didn\'t think he could be beat, implicitly confirming that it was his tactical decision. Not sure if he underestimated the pace ability of \'Lino, or if he respected it enough to go early to prevent a runaway. Either way, I don\'t see how Mario deserves the brunt of the criticism (other than horseplayers being an unforgiving bunch).
Tough to see Billy the Kid depart town last year. No more talk of him coming back after watching the OKC Dub-drub last night!
Velasquez moved Stradivari to the inside from his outside post just outside of Exaggerator in the 2 path from the start. He only swung wide following EX in the stretch. He closed well just missing 3rd by a nose and a head. Not a bad ride by Velasquez, the horse just wasn\'t good enough to win.
Bob,
No doubt from that UN GODLY post it was as good a ride as JV could have given him and I\'m NO Johnny V fan. The old time Maryland horseman will tell you go 2 turns at Pimlico outside the 8 path the track actually slopes downward from the crown and they are running uphill on the turns, 8 or 9 degree banking as opposed to 14 or 15 degrees at most venues.
TG ground guys make 2 designations on turns entering and leaving. From years of sitting with Uncle Bill checking ground I\'m sure they have Strad 2W entering & 5W leaving thats before the fan out in the stretch. He lost some ground on the 2nd turn.
I totally agree that he was not good or seasoned enough to win, a really good race from out there considering all.
Goos luck,
Frank D.
Appeared to me that he was wider than that through the first turn and down the back stretch. I will try to find and watch the head-on.
Temp,
I would call the first turn 2W entering 3W leaving, the back stretch is a straight line.
Sounds like I might just plain be wrong.
I can admit to having a \"He\'s really not that great..\" Velazquez bias. Could be showing up here!
I read a lot about the ride on here, and I mostly agree: the jockey influences my betting when I have a clear opinion of how he will ride a horse.
But as I posted before the Preakness, the variant at CD was probably .02-.04 (some had it at 0.05 but I think the rain made it a little faster). I don\'t know what they came up with for the Preakness, but the track was probably .15 which implies two seconds slower.
Add the effect of a lot of new speed in the race and it explains (for me) at least as much as the ride and trip.
Leamas
It was quick miff
From a site perspective, Nyquist was likely due for a regression and he certainly regressed, though the quick stepping effort would appear to have played a role.
That horse Abiding Star had some tactical speed, but he was way outfooted.
Everything else near the pace backed up substantially. Very interested in the final. Gotta figure Exaggerator put his mud zero in.
It will be an interesting race for discussion and perhaps education once they release the final figures in a day or two. Look at all the unusual variables in play. The 1-2 finishers rode the rail almost the whole trip. Most of the field raced 3-5 wide th8nking it was better. There was an extra shower 45 minutes before the race on top of the wet track. The pace was ultra fast and has to be marked as such. How many horses X\'ed? Half? I can see the runner up getting the 4th best figure. Possibly 5th. Interesting indeed....
Should be up tomorrow. There will be at least ten bets coming off the dead grass rail. That\'s where the money is.
Paolo Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> Tough to see Billy the Kid depart town last year.
> No more talk of him coming back after watching the
> OKC Dub-drub last night!
It was one game. Dubs win tonight.
TempletonPeck Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> I can admit to having a \"He\'s really not that
> great..\" Velazquez bias. Could be showing up here!
And hasn\'t been, for a good while . . . especially in certain types of races.
P-Dub Wrote:
------------------------------------------------------
> It was one game. Dubs win tonight.
NBA hopes so. How many millions of viewers would they lose in a Toronto-OkC
final?
About as many who will watch a SanJose/Tampa Stanley Cup final!
Would have been nice if Lezcano got the memo. #Conquest Typhoon
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Casse on Byk show right now talking about Typhoon & Za Approval, almost scratched Za but Frenchy said he could get off the rail!
\" All our turf horses got stuck on the inside on Saturday\" Lezcano & Frenchy both told him inside of course was no good early on.
Thanks Frank. Makes me feel even better that Lezcano knew but went inside anyway.
I should write a book--- \"They\'re Out of Burgers at Burger King\"
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Joe,
If it helps!!!!
Casse said Lezcano said he got stuck down there and couldn\'t get out?
I guess I\'ll go watch that replay.
There is always next time :)
Is Stradivari a possible for the Belmont?
I hope some of them run on Belmont day.