Explain the relative payoffs the first night of the carryover at CD (mandy payout), and the next day. I\'m stumped.
Both times the winner of the last was about second favorite in the will pays. Will pays the second day were on average several times the first day.
Not sure if this figures into it but the Twinspires players pool bet 80k into the first day and none the second. I think they/we hit it about 8x first day?
michael
Then a) they lost a lot, and b) hurt the price by maybe 10 cents. I had it three times myself and lost money.
Had it the next day and made 3/2. Easy game, pick 12 winners and break even.
Psychologically, does that make you think you should have played vertical more? When I am in \"horizontal\" mode I tend to shy away from exactas, tris, supers as I don\'t like to overextend myself.
Then when I hit 4 of 5 or 5 of 6 like today on a small ticket at Belmont for 32 bucks I think I should have played vertically or doubles or p3\'s. Tell me more about weathering that storm. I\'ve done well at that lately but I know that is a trap I fell into in the past very often. Others??
With a big carryover and a mandatory payout the pick 6 is a must-play.
Fairmount1 Wrote:
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> Psychologically, does that make you think you
> should have played vertical more? When I am in
> \"horizontal\" mode I tend to shy away from exactas,
> tris, supers as I don\'t like to overextend myself.
>
>
> Then when I hit 4 of 5 or 5 of 6 like today on a
> small ticket at Belmont for 32 bucks I think I
> should have played vertically or doubles or p3\'s.
> Tell me more about weathering that storm. I\'ve
> done well at that lately but I know that is a trap
> I fell into in the past very often. Others??
I lean more toward horizontal and then let the action dictate if I bet into the pick 4-5-6. Like most I handicap the card ahead of time, and then if the pools get juicy or there\'s big carryovers, or just looks tempting, I\'ll play. If I really like two or three \"longer\" ml priced horses in the sequence I tend to take a shot or two as well in the hopes that not as many people will be on them in those pools.
I think it\'s human nature to want to fire more bullets when you\'re \"hot\" and cashing a bunch of tickets. It\'s tough to do the \"stick w what\'s working\" routine and not over extend yourself. It\'s the classic grass is always greener situation. Especially in spots like you alluded to, prices were horrible at Belmont today. If I\'m not mistaken, Offering Plan, Cavorting, Unified, Wake Forest, & Ancient Secret all went off @ 5/2 or less, most of those worse than even money when it was all said and done.
The Strike Charmer-Tapitry exacta saved my day. I\'m guessing like myself you weren\'t lucky/good enough to be on the 35/1 bomb in the 5th??
TGJB Wrote:
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> Explain the relative payoffs the first night of
> the carryover at CD (mandy payout), and the next
> day. I\'m stumped.
>
> Both times the winner of the last was about second
> favorite in the will pays. Will pays the second
> day were on average several times the first day.
The win parlays for each of those sequences (Thurs and Fri) were almost identical. But when you look how how the public is likely betting into these things, it makes sense why the mandatory day ended up paying less than the following day, even though the mandatory day had the benefit of the big carryover pool.
On the mandatory payout day (Thursday May 12), the pool was $1,470,005, plus an additional $343,154 in the form of the split carryover from Derby day.
So there was .15*$1,470,005 = $220,500 subtracted from the pool in the form of the 15% takeout and $343,154 added to the pool by the carryover, for a net addition of $122,654. This meant that there was a +$122,654/$1,470,005 = +8.3% positive advantage for the player.
The $.20 parlay was $512, in which there is an inherent -16% takeout in each leg. But since you only get hit with the takeout once in the Pick 6, and because in this particular case the effective \"takeout\" was actually a positive 8.3%, the expected payout was 1.083/(1-.16)^6 = 3.08 times the parlay, or $1,580.
The actual payout was only $679 (about 33% more than the parlay), which was light but not unexpected given that the sequence was extremely chalky (none of the winners were more than the 3rd choice in the betting and none paid over $10.80), which nearly always produces underlaid payouts in traditional pick sixes (ie. no jackpot in play).
On a typical day in the CD Single 6 (non-mandatory payout day or non-lone winner day), the expectation on the bet is a whopping (1-.15)*(1-.10)/(1-.16)^6 = 2.18x the parlay, or just over twice the parlay.
On Friday it paid $2,518, which was almost 5 times the parlay of $506.
On Saturday it paid $490, which was almost 7 times the parlay of $71.
On Sunday it paid $3,643, more than 3 times the parlay of $1,145.
Fri/Sat/Sun were all pretty chalky sequences too (with no bombs), especially Saturday's sequence. The difference between these days and Thursday's sequence of course is that Thursday was a mandatory payout day, whereas these days had a $343K+ jackpot pool in play that could be taken down by one lucky winner.
On mandatory days, everybody's just trying to hit the thing, so chalky sequences get way overbet. It's just the opposite on non-mandatory days, where much of the public is chasing the jackpot, creating much greater value on logical sequences than the math alone would indicate.
What appears to be happening with this CD Single 6 jackpot is exactly what astute handicappers would have hoped for. The day-to-day bets should, on average, be paying just over twice the parlay, not the 3 to 7 times the parlay we've witnessed over the first three days.
Apologies if the following is stupid or missing what is going on here --
On non single ticket pay out and non mandatory pay days, is the bet just as simple as a pick 6 with a 25% takeout?
If that is true, then the advantage on most days compared to the parlay is that the takeout comes out once, not six times, is that right?
Is it possible that very hittable combinations pay out more than expected because people are not betting that combination for more than 20 cents and instead spreading their action to more combos (for example, nobody putting extra money in their play on the fav hitting six straight times to hit that combo multiple times).
Apologies if this is all very obvious or wrong.
SoCalMan2 Wrote:
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SoCal -- you are spot on.
> On non single ticket pay out and non mandatory pay
> days, is the bet just as simple as a pick 6 with a
> 25% takeout?
Yeah, but the effective takeout is not quite 25%.
It\'s actually 1 - (1-.15)*(1-.10) = 23.5%.
At GP (Rainbow 6), it\'s 1 - (1-.20)*(1-.30) = 44%.
In traditional pick sixes, the consolation tickets take a bite out of the winning payouts in the same way that the jackpot structure does.
At NYRA, with 25% of the pool set aside for consos, the effective takeout is 1 - (1-.16)*(1-.25) = 37%.
At the So-Cal circuit, where 30% is set aside for consos, it\'s 1 - (1.-2368)*(1-.30) = 47%.
Under both the jackpot structure and the traditional structure, pick 6 winners see a big chunk of their winnings getting taken out and distributed to other players who didn\'t pick 6 winners that day. Under the traditional structure, yes you do get some of that conso money back, but it\'s a relative pittance compared to what you should be getting when you hit the thing. The beauty of the jackpot structure is that with so much money chasing the jackpot, the day-to-day payouts pay much more on average than they should. And you can still get some of the jackpot money back too by either hitting a small jackpot now or then or by cashing on the mandatory payout days.
> If that is true, then the advantage on most days
> compared to the parlay is that the takeout comes
> out once, not six times, is that right?
Yep. The same holds true for all exotic wagers, both horizontal and vertical. The other advantage of exotic wagers is that your edge is multiplicative, so in a daily double for instance, if you put together two horses that are each 10% overlays, your edge on that combination is 1.10*1.10 = 21% instead of just 10%.
> Is it possible that very hittable combinations pay
> out more than expected because people are not
> betting that combination for more than 20 cents
> and instead spreading their action to more combos
> (for example, nobody putting extra money in their
> play on the fave hitting six straight times to hit
> that combo multiple times).
Exactly. This is something that\'s unique to the jackpot structure and why it generates so much day-to-day value. Not only are people spreading more with unique combinations, but with the $.20 minimum they are often overbetting to spread that much further. For instance, with the traditional $2 Pk 6, most players wouldn\'t even consider putting more than $2K into the thing (1,000 combos), or more than $5K (2,500 combos) on carryover days. But with the jackpot structure and the $.20 bet, I\'ve heard of guys that\'ve put $10K into the thing (some recent winner I believe), which amounts to 50,000(!) unique combinations. When people are spreading so deep like that, favorites and logical contenders by definition are going to be underrepresented in the pool, creating tremendous value on logical sequences.
Terrific explanation...concise...well stated...too bad you weren\'t my professor in my Differential Equations course!!
John
Which is why it should have paid more, not less.
On the mandatory payout day, you had the benefit of the added pretaxed carryover money, but since the jackpot wasn\'t eligible to be hit, that advantage was completely negated by the fact that the pool was being distributed to all winners, not just a single jackpot winner. So everyone was just trying to get a piece of the pot and therefore playing the most logical combinations, resulting in favorites getting overbet. When the sequence came back so chalky, even small fish with sub-$100 tickets all hit the thing because those were the first combinations that everyone played (resulting in it paying only 1.3x the parlay on thurs).
Just the opposite on the three jackpot days. With the $343K+ jackpot up for grabs, most everyone focused on trying to be the single winner. So you get guys playing nothing but longshots, or spreading ridiculously deep with monster caveman tickets consisting of tens of thousands of unique combinations, resulting in logical sequences like the ones that came in over the weekend being way underbet instead (5x, 7x and 3x the parlay on fri/sat/sun respectively).
Put aside the other days. On that day, most, like me, were just trying to hit it because of the plus vig, which if anything means more spread, not less. Regardless, the payoff should reflect the odds with that big a pool. The question is whether someone took down the thing hundreds of times, and if so what did their ticket look like.