The last 5 years, 96 horses have ran in the Kentucky Derby. 20 of those horses ran for trainers that are California based trainers. Given the results of the last 5 Derby\'s, I ran some numbers on the figures of those 20 horses in the Derby compared to the other 76 horses. Here is what I found.
Horses trained by Cali based trainers:
Top In The Derby Regardless of Surface of Prev. Top: 7/20, 35%
Pair in the Derby Regardless of Surface of Prev. Top: 2/20, 10%
Slower in the Derby Regardless of Surface of Prev. Top: 11/20, 55%
Slower in the Derby Regardless of Surface of Prev. Top BUT WITHIN 1 Point of that TOP: 2/20, 10%
Top in the Derby Compared to Prev. Dirt Top: 7/20, 35%
Pair in the Derby Compared to Prev. Dirt Top: 2/20, 10%
Slower in the Derby Compared to Prev. Dirt Top: 11/20, 55%
Slower in the Dery Compared to Prev. Dirt Top BUT WITHIN 1 Point of that Top: 1/20, 5%
Horses trained by all others:
Top In The Derby Regardless of Surface of Prev. Top: 11/76, 14.5%
Pair in the Derby Regardless of Surface of Prev. Top: 6/76, 7.9%
Slower in the Derby Regardless of Surface of Prev. Top: 59/76, 77.6%
Slower in the Derby Regardless of Surface of Prev. Top BUT WITHIN 1 Point of that TOP: 5/76, 6.6%
Top in the Derby Compared to Prev. Dirt Top: 12/76, 15.8%
Pair in the Derby Compared to Prev. Dirt Top: 6/76, 7.9%
Slower in the Derby Compared to Prev. Dirt Top: 55/73, 75.3% (3 horses had no prev dirt races)
Slower in the Dery Compared to Prev. Dirt Top BUT WITHIN 1 Point of that Top: 6/76, 7.9%
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SHORT SUMMARY: Depending on what is considered a top based on surface, 45% of horses trained by Cali based trainers had a pair or top in the Derby and 50 or 55% (depending on top definition) have been within 1 point of their top, paired, or a new top in the Derby.
All other trainers in the Derby have only achieved under 24% tops or pairs in the Derby and under 32% have been within 1 point of their top, paired, or achieved a new top in the Derby (depending on your definition of a top).
If anyone wants me to pass the spreadsheet along, send me a private message. I am open to accuracy checks or improvement suggestions from anyone that may want to review it.