Sometimes best to sleep on it before posting a post mortem, but it is the Derby after all.
Some thoughts:
1. Hate to start with Pletcher, but boy is he awful in the Derby. Granted, neither horse was one of the favorites, but they both had numbers and looked to run a bit. Not all all. Again.
2. Three years in a row a California horse, favored at 5/2 or less, looking like a bet against for TG users, wins the Derby. This one looked just as average on Beyer, but was more impressive than American Pharaoh and at least commensurate with California Chrome, from a visual perspective (will wait on figures)
3. GunRunner, as slow as he was on numbers, ran a pretty nice race. The other pace setters who ran with Nyquist, Danzig Candy and Outwork, finished way way back. This horse is OK. Don\'t think his TG figures reflect his talent.
4. I left after the Derby, but till then no dirt horses making moves from way back all day and the track was playing to fast times. Looks like at bit speed favoring to me, but the Derby pace was certainly fast.
5. Considering the way the track played, I thought Exaggerator ran a nice race. He was coming pretty hard late, albeit never threatening the winner.
6. 20 horse field with 1st favorite over 2nd favorite over 3rd favorite over 4th favorite. Sheesh. Trifecta paying 80 bucks or so in a 20 horse field. Yikes.
this horse is better than lots of people on this board thought. Not sure why so many of us messed this up. (host included). Nyquist looked a winner every step of the way. Maybe for a brief moment when GunRunner made his move, I thought he had a shot, but just for a moment. The rest of the way Nyquist was always looking good. (sick feeling for somebody holding Oaks DErby Doubles with 5 horses not named Nyquist).
Not sure I have any interest in going after this horse again in 2 weeks. I guess he will have a TG sheet that looks like a big top and 2 weeks rest, but not sure his TG (or Beyer) numbers for his previous races are accurately reflecting the horse\'s ability.
Rob
After the race its hard to reach any conclusion other than the California horses are superior.
Pletcher picks his spots well in the Preps. Come Derby time, he\'s up against the best and out of tricks. Been there with him in the past, I feel your pain.
Made some bets, the Nyquist saver key was the only one I sniffed, but it was pure chalk. Still almost had the super.
Funny Derby, it chalked out, but it was hard to separate them.
Nyquist looks like a good one. Mohaymen ran better but still needs some seasoning.
The top two deserve the credit, but the value horse I was highest on was Mo Tom and wouldn\'t you know he found trouble again. He wasn\'t getting to the top two, but he could have beaten Gun Runner.
Looking forward to the Red Board Room. Wasn\'t able to follow them much this year.
Simple post mortem, the points system has changed the Derby for bettors. Without the cheap 2 year old speed, chalk will reign supreme and we get a result where the best horses run the best, but no money is to be made.
Old Boston,
Simple (and likely wrong) assertion.
Danzig Candy ran like cheap 2 year old speed today. Exactly like it. Hard to believe any other cheap speed would have resulted in the pace being faster than 22 45 like it was.
And Nyquist won easily.
More complicated than that.
Rob
My 2 cents.After a rain scare the track went of fast and no need to adjust my tix. I keyed Nyquist as I truly felt he was the best horse coming in.
I hit the tri needed SBN for the Super but loss $$ on the race,very anticlimactic
Points system has really changed the race small sample size though.
Again Pletcher is a no show he is must toss in the win spot Derby Day.
Pace is usually present in the Derby and it proved true again today.
Mohayman was a toss for me, almost cost me, he really ran a nice race.
Nyquist is a serious race horse and fresh coming in only of 16F of preps I am predicting he will be going to Belmont with a chance to win the Triple,need to see who shows up at belmont.
Well another 364 days until the next Derby.
Thanks JB for a great product and a great forum.
ringato3 Wrote:
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> Old Boston,
>
> Simple (and likely wrong) assertion.
>
> Danzig Candy ran like cheap 2 year old speed
> today. Exactly like it. Hard to believe any
> other cheap speed would have resulted in the pace
> being faster than 22 45 like it was.
>
> And Nyquist won easily.
>
> More complicated than that.
>
> Rob
So true. Annoyed that DC went that fast, but really it\'s irrelevant, Nyquist pressed the pace and had plenty. Same as he has in the past, press and then take over top of stretch and refuse to be passed.
Today really impressed me. I guess I didn\'t give him near enough respect for numerous \"visually\" impressive efforts. He was/is flat out slow on paper? I\'m having a hard time reconciling. He just does what he has to do to win EVERY time. But I like the abuse, I\'ll be against him in two weeks again.
Great post. Of course he is not AP but I think this horse can win the Triple Crown. Not just win it but win by 10+. I really hope we don\'t see absurd Pletcher and Baffert horses with great TGs cases being made that didn\'t run in the Derby. Nyquist would run them into submission.
Danzig Candy ran like a horse who was attempting 10F who is out of a Songandaprayer mare, who (according to BRIS) has an AverageWinningDistance as a damsire of exactly 6.0F. I don\'t think there is anything \"cheap speed\" about him, he\'s just a 7-8F horse, which his breeding suggests he should be.
EDIT - Also, I can\'t think of a single factor that people waste more time on in the Derby than \"Pace Scenario\". People waste so much time pouring over this point and then it never turns out the way the majority of people expected it to.
Chas04 Wrote:
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> Great post. Of course he is not AP but I think
> this horse can win the Triple Crown. Not just win
> it but win by 10+. I really hope we don\'t see
> absurd Pletcher and Baffert horses with great TGs
> cases being made that didn\'t run in the Derby.
> Nyquist would run them into submission.
I know he\'s lightly raced this year, but the two week turn around after that effort? And then Belmont if and when he gets out of MD? I was really impressed today and think he\'s a special horse but I\'m not ready to crown him just yet. Big Brown looked unbeatable to.
Tread,
YOu clearly didn\'t understand the thread.
The assertion (normally your specialty) from Old Mr Boston, was that the change in the points system eliminating horses that had 2 year old earnings in stakes races earned at shorter distances has changed the derby dynamic eliminating those sprinters/early developes from the Derby and making it more formful.
Today, Danzig Candy ran just like one of those early developing and/or distance challenged horses and set a fast pace.
A sprinter, even quality, running long, can be \"cheap speed\".
Songandaprayer, the horse you mention in your post, set the fastest pace in derby history (at least then, if not now. He was distance challenged as is Danzig Candy, apparently.
Rob
Couldn\'t agree more. Most derby pace scenarios go out the window at the break.
Correct - Songandaprayer won the FOY and ran 2nd in the Blue Grass, if the points system now in place would have existed then he would have qualified for the KD.
All the excuses for Mohaymen\'s performance in the FD (heat, humidity, track condition) were also factors that Nyquist had to deal with, plus the shipping. Just because he won the FD didn\'t mean he was immune to those factors. The paired number NYQ earned under those circumstances was the basis for believing he was not only a vulnerable favorite but a false favorite (slower than several others). In retrospect it looks like the performance discounting that was applied to Mohaymen should have also been applied to the winner as well.
Nyqvist owned the race today from the first step out of the gate.
slewzapper Wrote:
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> Nyqvist owned the race today from the first step
> out of the gate.
I think it is worth noting that Nyquist also owned the Florida Derby. In hindsight he toyed with them @GP.
Mohaymen ran nicely today, but he wasn\'t in the same class as the top two just as the FL Derby suggested. O\'Neill referred to the winners character, the look in his eye. There might be something to it ala Hollywood\'s Seabiscuit.
Here is the thing, nobody\'s data shows how much gas is left in the tank at the end of the race.
The easy run away prep winners all ran well today!
Boy you are dead on. One derby rule I have is when they say there is a lot of speed there never is and when they say there is no speed there will be.
Another lousy race with terrible pay outs. what do they do to the track to soupe it up like this? Was it this way on Oaks day?
Everything started exactly like I had hoped but the track must have been extra hard or something.
Nyquist ran a great race, but Ex was as good. Who knows if he gets by him without the checking, but he would have looked him in the eye.
Belmont should be interesting, especially with well-rested late speed likely.
They scrape it so that those in the entourage wearing heals don\'t turn an ankle.
Race certainly separated the contenders from the pretenders. What to make of Outwork? Another Gemologist?
Two preps,five or six weeks,coming in off pairs(even if they are slower)
seems to work well coming into the Derby.
Nyquist,Gun Runner obviously ran new tops here off that.
That\'s one way to make sense of them running 1-3 here.
Nyquist runs a top, Beyer had it 103(like TG - 1/2)TF has it exactly same.A top for slow, going in, Gun Runner who did lots of running,maybe moved a bit too early causing him second,perhaps
Exaggerator ran well again(lots of water on top of surface)with trouble but may never get past Nyquist in a fairly run race. Goes to Preakness if all ok.
TAP runners were no factor. Moyhaymen, top pick, was a common 4th just holding a troubled trip SBN who will be the sucker closer in Belmont.
Fraud closers from great set ups in BG, Ark Derby no shows in spite of lively pace.
Nyquist got the exact trip as it looked on paper and fired when asked, very honest/determined horse, best of these so far but not dominant imo.
SBN probably will be a sucker bet. Closers usually are in the Belmont, but that horse always finishes. Made up 8 lengths on the winner through the stretch. The start was an absolute mess, but I actually thought he got a good ride on the last turn.
Another is ground loss. GR will get at best the fifth best number.
Methoddology wise for sure but GR did way more running, attending very fast pace, than the ground losers that will get better figs.
Inside paths negative for the day?
I thought so for a stretch but it didn\'t hold up. After the Win Star horse ran terrible in the sprint Elliot walked out there to see if it was deeper, texted me it was not.
Frank,
Computer kids had track + 6 lengths fast, app 1 second on their parallel time chart, all paths honest, no wires all day but \"honest\"
Thanks Mike,
Got those post Big Weekend Blues for sure!
Cap your brains out and get slapped big time for 2 days!!!
Triple X 2 in the Navarro mile took some sting out but still a big ouchie!!!!!
Like anyone or everyone who ever looked at a number Beach Patroll was a BRUTAL BEAT on the heels of losing the Morning Buzz heat in the last the day before!!!!!
and on the flip side horses with 4 preps ran poorly.
Gusts were sporadic but heavier at times out of the west. Forwardly placed horses were probably helped somewhat mid day as they received a push up the backstretch and had no head wind in the home stretch due to shelter from the stands. Sporadic though, so here one race gone the next. Derby winds were calm. Haven\'t seen them yet, but think there may be some favorable patterns and fresh legs to keep Nyquist\'s hands full in Baltimore. At 2-5, no way conceding that one to him.
For what it\'s worth, there\'s an argument that all wind helps those behind-- if it\'s in the face of the horses the ones in front catch it while others are covered up, if it\'s behind them the other way around.
Agreed, but on the backstretch when you\'re conserving more energy to begin with, the affects are negligible in a lot of cases. 100 percent agreed on the theory however.
My reaction to a chalky edition of the Derby..
How bout that Bartolo Colon!
Otherwise known as jug head anemology !!!
Mike,
Agree for sure. GunRunner was another (along with Nyquist) that outran their figures (not just TG, but Beyer and others as well). Got the same trip as Outwork and couldn\'t find Outwork with a telescope at the wire while GunRunner was in it to the wire. HE fired out hard, pressed a 45 and change half, moved with Nyquist at the top of the stretch and then got leg weary late, which he had a right to do. He is a nice developing 3 year old.
Rob
I don\'t think there is anywhere they can run Gun Runner where I won\'t bet against him next time.
Bartolo Colon is the real Mr. October!!!
Just reviewed TGraphs sheets via Red Board and I can see why many are pining for the fjords. No argument with the numbers, they are what they are and am in no position to say otherwise.
Maybe I would have favored Outwork, like many here, on the pair of deuces and projected improvement.
Destin had the best number, but maybe here they figured long rest and bounce, which may have happened.
Mor Spirit looked like a play.
I really like the look of Suddenlybreakingnew\'s sheet with the TU and dang was he moving strong late.
Gun Runner looks unplayable on the Sheet, but in a large field saving ground he was on my tickets.
I\'m still high on Mo Tom and believe he will make noise when he gets a clean trip.
Mohaymens biggest problem in the FD was his post position.
dskidmore1 Wrote:
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> Mohaymens biggest problem in the FD was his post
> position.
He got beat 10 in the Florida Derby by Nyquist and then by about 4 3/4 in the Derby.
Mohaymen ran a little flat early, but Nyquist is clearly a better horse right now, don\'t sell him short. We\'ll be looking for holes in the Preakness, but he\'s game.
McLaughlin has put Mohaymen away until the Travers and since he\'s a May foal its a wise move. He ran a decent race, he just needs some time.
Old Mr. Boston Wrote:
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> Simple post mortem, the points system has changed
> the Derby for bettors. Without the cheap 2 year
> old speed, chalk will reign supreme and we get a
> result where the best horses run the best, but no
> money is to be made.
Agree. The precocious 2 yo\'s (aka \'cheap speed\'), who previously would have taken some serious dough, are absent. We\'ll see fewer 2 yo\'s with good foundation and good breeding that are just rounding into form for the Derby (a la Giacomo, Charismatic, Mine That Bird, etc.) at juicy mutuels.
The good 3 yo\'s are now almost required to participate in one of the big 4 preps at 1 1/8 to guarantee themselves a spot in the gate, so more of them are meeting in a race before the big one. They have pretty much sorted themselves out. And they are all in good current form, judging by the almost unheard of lack of scratches in the final month this year.
Therefore, I also expect the reign of chalk to continue. No hard data to debate. We\'ll know in another two years.
\"EDIT - Also, I can\'t think of a single factor that people waste more time on in the Derby than \"Pace Scenario\". People waste so much time pouring over this point and then it never turns out the way the majority of people expected it to\"
Seriously??the pace scenario played out rather exactly as predicted relative to where most would be the first half mile.Assuming a clean break, SC and Nyquist were right where they figured along with a few others.
Also time to put a fork in the dosage index and, to a lesser extent, distance breeding. Nyquist yet another heavily sprint bred on immediate dam side, believe that\'s 3 years in a row for Derby winners.
The pace scenario did indeed play out exactly as anticipated. And when I saw the fractions I thought the race would collapse and I would be cashing tickets. Gun Runner holding on for third tells me more about the race than Nyquist winning.