Does Creator have a similar pattern to Nehro or am I missing something??
Creator has 8 (yes EIGHT) 2 turn races under his belt
whether you like the horse or not in this race (and I do), you have to love that kind of foundation compared to most of these with only a handful of lifetime starts, let alone around 2 turns
Like Creator as well wish he was a little farther outside..
Good Luck
They do, although Nehro\'s spacing was a bit better I think, having started his races almost a month earlier.
Creator another one that jumped forward big time after getting away from FG.
covelj70 Wrote:
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> Creator has 8 (yes EIGHT) 2 turn races under his
> belt
>
> whether you like the horse or not in this race
> (and I do), you have to love that kind of
> foundation compared to most of these with only a
> handful of lifetime starts, let alone around 2
> turns
Jim. a couple of years ago you posted a completely interesting rundown of that years derby as you saw it. The Materialism Derby. The race results were, as is often the case, different than expected. So what!
Hoping the slings and arrows are history and a sequel would be appreciated. Or at lease an executive summary. Already a good start.
Tavasco,
Thanks so much for the nice message.
The slings and arrows, particularly last year on my AP comments throughout the Triple Crown season, are a part of why I haven\'t posted as much this Derby season but honestly, the much bigger issue is that I am not at Churchill this year so I don\'t have any real insight to add. Was just too busy with work to get there this year.
I have watched the videos of all the works very closely and I did try to buy a few of these animals along the way so I feel like I have some insight but there\'s no replacement for seeing them live and in person.
The other complicating factor is that one of my good friends and my partner on a bunch of horses owns both My Man Sam and Exaggerator so I am definitely clouded with my positive bias for those 2.
My bet will focus around those 2 as well as Creator and Outwork.
I think Outwork has looked the best of all of the horses from the videos but again, that\'s just from the TV and not watching them come on and off the track and seeing how they act when they first come out of their stall, etc (sore horses tell you how they are feeling in their first few steps out of the stall everyday).
Obviously Outwork is competitive on the TGs, he is training very well, I think he will sit a comfortable stalking trip and I love the fact that he is a very large horse who is less likely to lose the race because he gets pushed around at the break. He\'s a very very big long striding horse that will need to be in the clear to run his race but that\'s how I see it playing out. I see him sitting on the outside of the 2nd flight, just a few lengths behind Danzig Candy, Nyquist and Moyhamen (who has become a run off from what I can see in the mornings). I think Outwork will stay the distance and I don\'t think those other horses on the front end will.
IMO, the most talented horses in the race are the closers including the 3 I mentioned above that I will include. The problems are that a) I don\'t think the pace will be enough to set up the closers and b) any closer is always going to have to work this way through a lot of traffic, and c) in a year like this with so many looking to take back, a lot of these closers will lose a lot more ground on the first turn than the horses we are used to seeing make these last to first moves in the Derby after dropping back to the rail around the first turn.
From a pace standpoint, if you go back and look at the archives, typically, if the first 6f goes in 1:10 or slower, it\'s very tough for a deep closer to win. When I look at the horses in the this field, it\'s very hard for me to see the first 6f going in under 1:10.
that\'s what makes this a tough Derby for me, the best horses are the ones that I don\'t think have the right set up. the other tough thing is that many Derbies have looked slow on paper only to have more pace because a horse runs off (i.e. Palice Malice), etc.
anyway, those are my best thoughts. Good luck to all and have fun
Jim
There are a couple of big differences regarding number of starts and whether Nehro had actually established a top at two, and how big a jump their last preps were. One could argue that Nehro\'s Derby was Creator\'s Arkansas Derby, in pattern terms.
We go into foundation thing in the seminar, at least regarding 3yo preps.
Soon I can sleep... but the Mets are playing on the Coast...coffee...
my problem is the 4 races in the short time span
No sleeping until that Derby day full card analysis goes up!
Is getting pumped about beisbol in early May akin to catching Derby fever in January?
Fun to watch the power surge but Duda is very streaky.
Power surge makes me laugh watching the Yanks & Leicester City, I\'m mean the Birds playing to a nil/nil draw in the 9th as Starlin Castro just got picked off 2nd base with 2 out BRILLIANT!!!!!
The Derby and possible weather on Saturday night aren\'t enough Exaggerator I mean aggravation. Trying to make the Oaks/Derby doubles as well as worrying about Saturday horizontal sequences.
From Twitter:
@Jon_Sheets at the #RagozinSheets seminar @santaanitapark just released Mohaymen as his 2016 @KentuckyDerby selection. #Sharpie
Would love your thoughts on Sam\'s last work. Can\'t find the video anywhere, but gallop out seemed great by the clock.
(Not that anyone asked or should care . . .) but my thoughts on real closers is that it doesn\'t matter what time is done up front. They are either going to run fast enough or they aren\'t. They don\'t go faster or slower depending on what the leader does through 6F. There are five closers that have run at least a three - and that, depending on trip, is good enough for all of them to get in the exotics. And being closers, more ground probably helps.
Three of them are from post 6 in, so how wide could they be on the first turn? Gun Runner clears. I see 3W at worst for the players. The other turn is a different matter, and Exaggerator has some issues, admittedly. But I like Sam\'s chances if he gets a 3W/4W trip (instead of the 4W/8W Bluegrass).
Roughly half the field has had at least a handful of two turn heats, with Outwork and Shagaf only a pair apiece.
My issues with Creator stem from his post, difficulty in breaking his maiden and picking up major poundage.
Wouldn\'t talk someone off a 20-1 shot in a difficult ten panel test who will stay; especially since I cannot \"create\" a case for four or five others who will be shorter odds. bbb
I\'ve watched this horse (Creator) closely and I feel odds for him to at least pair his last are much greater than the 20% average from the profile. Admittedly, the 4 preps this year (really 5 if you add his 12/31 race) would predict a bounce on the surface... but I think probability is much less than what the profile suggests.
Handicapping play here is to toss the FG races given: a) one must assume the colt has figured it out in the last 60-90 days, b) colt was trying to make his closing move behind hideously slow fractions and don\'t think those races took much out of him. With that said, his maiden score 3 out was as visually impressive as anyone in the field while in hand.
Good shot he pairs which puts him in the mix and certainly not a horse I\'m tossing.