Certainly makes things more interesting with regards to pace....if outwork or another really want the lead that bad, they got their wish
I believe Mor spirit may go,Outwork may go Mohay has really been wound up and May fire as well,Nyquist will be close as well.
If DC stays true to his history he is really going to have to go to clear.
I\'m predicting a half closer to 46 than 47.
As Baffert said all the speed is outside,closers inside
Like 2 separate races are being run..
Good luck every one
John
I feel like being outside is pretty perfect for this one all things considered. 15-1 ml is certainly upsetting though.
Nyquist likely will have to do some work early. Romans not a happy camper right now either I\'d guess
Agree with MO, watching him hop around the track makes me think he\'ll go. MS seems to be training that way to. Interesting for sure
I forget how they load for the Derby.
Is it inside-outside 1-20,2-19,3-18 etc?
Post is tactically good for DC but if he has to sit in that gate waiting for 18 others.....
DC in post 20 kinda ensures a petty fast first quarter. Nyquist drew poorly being inside of main speeds Outwork and DC, race going to clubhouse turn will be interesting.
Smith admitted poor judgement dead sending DC in the SA derby,he\'ll go but not dead send this time.
Load is 1-11, 2-12, 3-13 etc
Why is that a bad draw for Nyquist? Presumably they\'re not going for the lead.
Given there is not much speed inside of him, I imagine he will get a nice trip fairly close the rail. At some point he will have to find a seam, but I thought he drew well.
Agree he should be able to save ground
Not a remote chance Nyquist is taking back at the break, by design.Except for one race where he was bumped at the break, he\'s going for forward position.
If you are tactical, you always want to be outside the certain speeds out of a chute/long straightaway.If you look at race shape,it appears on paper that DC and Outwork will be going and angling right where Nyquist figures to be heading....NFG for Nyquist if it plays out that way.
Having said that, the break can end up very different from what it looks like on paper.
Agree, unless the plan for Nyquist is to do something he has never done before, this is a bad draw.
miff Wrote:
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> Not a remote chance Nyquist is taking back at the
> break, by design.Except for one race where he was
> bumped at the break, he\'s going for forward
> position.
>
> If you are tactical, you always want to be outside
> the certain speeds out of a chute/long
> straightaway.If you look at race shape,it appears
> on paper that DC and Outwork will be going and
> angling right where Nyquist figures to be
> heading....NFG for Nyquist if it plays out that
> way.
>
> Having said that, the break can end up very
> different from what it looks like on paper.
right so one would assume Nyquist will have to go faster than they would like from the break, at least that\'s how I see it.
Who said anything about taking him back? He figures to be a few lengths off the pace naturally, and there may be a big hole there.
Very good JB, that hole better be there, that\'s the point. Can he clear the inside and allow DC and Outwork go over him and sit.
.....sounds ez, but with 20 in the gate, never know.
Nyquist has never had dirt kicked back in his face. Watch all his replays if needed. He will run however he needs to run to make sure that doesnt happen here. He\'s too competitive not to. iMO.
I heard Danzing Candy sort of lost it in the paddock SA Derby Day and that\'s why he ran off those crazy fractions. If his demeanor was due to the crowd at SA, what will he be like on Derby Day?
Deja vu all over again.
Not so good memories of Sidney\'s Candy blowing up from the 20 hole in 2010.
I can\'t help stop looking at what a dream draw Gun Runner got.
Hey Jerry, are you still willing to offer me your even-money \"Who will be 1w on the first turn?\" proposition that you offered me a few years ago with Super Saver?
He\'s got nearly an identical pattern to Brilliant Speed coming in, who ran a 3w5w and finished 5 1/2 lengths back of Animal Kingdom. A new top with a 1w1w probably gets a piece. But it\'s too bad he won\'t have a Brilliant Speed price.
agree he\'s likely to improve, but ~4.5ish pts to matter? That\'s asking a lot
A 3 pt move and a rail trip probably gets him into the Super. A 4 1/2 pt move might win it. But it sucks because this is a horse that probably should/could have been at least 25 or 30 to 1 if he had taken a harder path coming in.
He\'s a horse that is going to make my horizontal tickets more expensive without really adding anything massive to the potential payout. He\'s Golden Soul at 1/3rd the price.
Needing a 3-4 point move up, he will not make any of my tickets more expensive :-O
Best of luck and I can\'t blame anyone for tossing slower horses at shitty prices, but that pattern is spring loaded and ready to burst, and he has shown he\'s very comfortable running on the inside and getting dirt kicked in his face. Outside of a disaster coming out of the gate, he\'s going to be in a dream spot. The last time I was this confident a dream trip for a horse, it was Super Saver, with all the speed on the far outside of him.
Very, very annoying horse for me.
Oh yeah, don\'t get me wrong, I agree on his pattern, and I wish he had drawn the 20 and Danzing Candy the 5. I just don\'t think that 10/1 is a fair proposition.
sekrah Wrote:
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> Best of luck and I can\'t blame anyone for tossing
> slower horses at shitty prices, but that pattern
> is spring loaded and ready to burst, and he has
> shown he\'s very comfortable running on the inside
> and getting dirt kicked in his face. Outside of a
> disaster coming out of the gate, he\'s going to be
> in a dream spot. The last time I was this
> confident a dream trip for a horse, it was Super
> Saver, with all the speed on the far outside of
> him.
>
> Very, very annoying horse for me.
TempletonPeck Wrote:
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> Oh yeah, don\'t get me wrong, I agree on his
> pattern, and I wish he had drawn the 20 and
> Danzing Candy the 5. I just don\'t think that 10/1
> is a fair proposition.
>
> sekrah Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Best of luck and I can\'t blame anyone for
> tossing
> > slower horses at shitty prices, but that
> pattern
> > is spring loaded and ready to burst, and he has
> > shown he\'s very comfortable running on the
> inside
> > and getting dirt kicked in his face. Outside of
> a
> > disaster coming out of the gate, he\'s going to
> be
> > in a dream spot. The last time I was this
> > confident a dream trip for a horse, it was
> Super
> > Saver, with all the speed on the far outside of
> > him.
> >
> > Very, very annoying horse for me.
10/1 ML doesn\'t mean he doesn\'t go off longer.
Sek-- that\'s the situation with Nyquist as well. Unless he ends up outside by intent (human or equine, as MJ suggests), he\'s getting the same or similar trip as Gun Runner, who is the only one inside him with any speed at all.
I would be much less confident of Nyquist finding that spot. Tom\'s Ready, Destin, and possibly even Whitmore with Victor on board will be horses that Nyquist will have to clear. I could even see Kent on Exaggerator wanting to be closer to the front like he was in the San Vincente.
Trojan, SBN, Creator, Mo Tom are stone cold Sustained Zeros.
I\'d put Gun Runner 1w going into the turn at like 80%+.
Nyquist?
1w = 10%
2w = 30%
3w = 35%
4w = 20%
5w = 5%
P-Dub Wrote:
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>
> 10/1 ML doesn\'t mean he doesn\'t go off longer.
Of course it doesn\'t, but he\'s 12/1 offshore and around L.V., so I think it\'s pretty safe to guess that he won\'t be 20/1.
TempletonPeck Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-Dub Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> >
> > 10/1 ML doesn\'t mean he doesn\'t go off longer.
>
> Of course it doesn\'t, but he\'s 12/1 offshore and
> around L.V., so I think it\'s pretty safe to guess
> that he won\'t be 20/1.
So 20/1 is the minimum required to bet this horse? If you like him and he\'s around 15/1, don\'t know why that wouldn\'t be good enough if you like him.
P-Dub Wrote:
>
> So 20/1 is the minimum required to bet this horse?
> If you like him and he\'s around 15/1, don\'t know
> why that wouldn\'t be good enough if you like him.
I didn\'t say that, I was just saying that as a guy estimating the off-odds, the evidence to me suggests that you may get 12-15, but not likely 20.
For any horse, there\'s an intersection of chance to win the race/fair odds. If a horse has a 10% chance to win the race, then 9/1 is the breakeven price. So for this horse, if you think he has more than a 1/16 chance to win the race, then yeah, 15/1 is a fair price, but if you think he\'s only got a 1/21 chance to win the race, then you need 20/1.
Agree completely. Had hoped to toss him, but the draw was perfect. Speed wise, this group reminds me of the I\'ll Have Another derby. He won it with a 1, and Bode got the place with a 3. A win might be asking too much but has every chance to hit the board improving off that pair.
Not for nothing, but if I think a horse has a 1/21 shot in winning, I need a lot more than 20/1 odds. If DC is going to be 20/1, to be getting good value on him, you would have to figure his chances to win to be close to 10% if not more.
Figuring out value and % chance to win is tricky for longshots because the probability of being off a few % pts is higher with more speculative longshots, not to mention how significant being off a few % pts can be for that scenario.
If you give a horse a 10% chance to win and his true chances are 5%, that is a big difference, and is the difference between an 18/1 shot being a good bet and a fairly bad bet. However being off that same 5% when dealing with favorites is less severe imo. If you think a horse has a 50% chance of winning but his true chance is really only 45%, it really doesnt make as much of a difference in terms of what price is acceptable to call that horse value, and a good bet.