I hope EXAG doesn\'t wind up sitting dead last in this field.
Earlier at Barn 25, Desormeaux had been asked by a TV reporter where he believed his charge would be running come Saturday in the mile and one quarter Kentucky Derby.
\"He's going to be far, far in the back," the conditioner said, making no attempt to disguise his strategy. "He'll be so far back, he'll be behind the kick-back. You know these horses throw (dirt) kick-back when they run. I want that kick-back from the pack to go up and come down and then you're going to see Exaggerator. Kent (his brother and the colt's rider) will be back there counting cars."
Starting to wish Sise would give any indication that this one can get 1 1/4:
Sise, 64, never has had a Derby starter, but has had a couple horses who were on the Kentucky Derby trail before being derailed. Last year Sise was preparing Prospect Park for the Kentucky Derby when the colt exited his fourth-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby (GI) with an elevated white blood cell count. The other horse that Sise had hoped to run in the Derby was CaliforniaChrome's sire, Lucky Pulpit, in 2004.
"My biggest disappointment was last year with Prospect Park because he wants to go a mile and a quarter," Sise said. "The only relief from that disappointment was that no one was going to beat American Pharoah, although it would have been nice to hit the board."
Where is the \"but we\'re real excited to be here this year\" part?
Chance of late day rain on Sat adds another variable....just what the doctor ordered.
There\'s no Smarty in this race, but I\'ve been thinking it may wind up like 2004 where the exacta was over at the quarter pole. A little rain and I\'ll take my chances with DC holding on for part as EXAG\'s odds plummet.
Gone from almost no chance to 20% during the day to 50% at night and T-storms cells in the vicinity.
WTF do I keep saying about long range forecasts from the Mensa members who keep putting weather forecasts up 2 weeks out!!!!!
At least you will be ok in the vertical when the conditions are known, in the horizontals gotta protect with Exagg if possible wet surface. At least Exagg can handle it, many others a guess.
Agreed, EXAG a use in the horizontals.
If it comes up sloppy, the USC connection may play out. TN certainly not going to be afraid to try and skim along the inside. He\'ll need a move up fig similar to MTB though.
Gerard Wrote:
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> There\'s no Smarty in this race, but I\'ve been
> thinking it may wind up like 2004 where the exacta
> was over at the quarter pole. A little rain and
> I\'ll take my chances with DC holding on for part
> as EXAG\'s odds plummet.
Remember -- they actually ran the KD over a sealed racetrack in \'04, for heaven\'s sake. Just another reason to keep your powder dry in Feb/Mar/Apr . . . once they sealed it after the midafternoon downpour, that SJ/LH exacta should have paid FAR less than it did.
It wasn\'t as much a statement about track condition as it was about the race being decided early. The track condition part only related to EXAG, I just think he\'ll take too much money if the conditions are off, and there may be some value in beating him.
I\'m basing the race being over early on the my not giving any of the closers new tops for this race, and seeing two of these get away from the rest at an early stage. Yes EXAG will likely be closing, be he is the fastest closer and will probably move earliest of all.
RE:2004
5 more minutes of betting and it would\'ve paid far less than it did. Dropped what, 35% in the final 10 min?
FrankD. Wrote:
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> Gone from almost no chance to 20% during the day
> to 50% at night and T-storms cells in the
> vicinity.
>
> WTF do I keep saying about long range forecasts
> from the Mensa members who keep putting weather
> forecasts up 2 weeks out!!!!!
How reliable is this forecast now? Dang, just when I thought all was solved with Mor Spirit, it may be back to the drawing board as moisture is his enemy in my book.
This could add a significant wrinkle into the maestro\'s seminar. I wonder if he will handicap the weather along with the bragging rights issues.
I\'d pay for a separate \"off track seminar\"
I\'ll add some comments in the Bottom Line section, don\'t do that part until after the draw.
Sorry Frank now up to 40%
I\'ve been listening to WHAS radio & they said no rain until after the Derby, Accuweather says the same thing. Only place I\'ve seen where it might rain for the Derby is Weather Underground.
Is WU the source for all this gloom & doom forecast or are you guys getting it from another source?
toppled Wrote:
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> I\'ve been listening to WHAS radio & they said no
> rain until after the Derby, Accuweather says the
> same thing. Only place I\'ve seen where it might
> rain for the Derby is Weather Underground.
> Is WU the source for all this gloom & doom
> forecast or are you guys getting it from another
> source?
Much to my chagrin, weather.com has 40% chance...damn it
How about this.
Handicap for a dry track, handicap for a wet track. Pay attention to any bias in case they seal the track.
Other than that, can we give this weather thing a rest already?? How about we wait until it matters, Like the day of the race.
I swear every 5th post we get another weather update. 25%, no it\'s 40%. It\'s pointless, because the only thing that\'s 100% is the percentage of people that don\'t know for sure what the weather will be Saturday.
Yes, it\'s my 3rd post in 10 minutes. Dinner break. I\'ll get the seminar when I get home and contribute my expert analysis later.
Not sure what he did in the paddock, but he was unruly in the starting gate.
The track was scored slow by at least one concern yet the fractions were quick on raw time. Exaggerator had his most impressive victory. Did it look even more impressive because he was reeling in very tired horses running on a fatiguing surface?
If he lost some energy during the \"start up\" and ran on a sapping track he could have been compromised. It\'s an intriguing consideration. If it was all at an energy expense, I\'d be interested to see Uncle Lino\'s next back.
As far as breeding goes why not? He\'s got some Distance on his female side as well. His grandma had a distance turfer that won over 4 million.