Why isn\'t this horse the horse?
He ran a huge fig as a two year old. Came back to the huge fig with trouble. Is ready to finally move forward in the Derby. Forget about the question of Exaggerator and track condition; isn\'t it obvious this horse hates wet tracks? Get rid of his wet track races and what has he done wrong?
If he pairs up the fig he ran as a two year old or the fig two races back, he is already super competitive. Couple that with Baffert pointing to the Derby, I see it as very easy to put this horse down as a minus 1 which would be extremely strong in this race.
To me, if he fires a big fig, only real risk is that Danzig Candy might get away with a wire job.
So, Mor Spirit to win and place and boxed with Danzig Candy.
Easy Game.
Shhh.....you may be killing my odds:)
jp702006 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Shhh.....you may be killing my odds:)
Pikers on the internet don\'t impact Derby odds....if anything, it scares the smart money off when pikers like what they like.
SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> jp702006 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Shhh.....you may be killing my odds:)
>
>
> Pikers on the internet don\'t impact Derby
> odds....if anything, it scares the smart money off
> when pikers like what they like.
Just to be clear, I was referring to myself as the piker, not you.
He is a must play, on figures and running style. But I can\'t make any sense of the last two works. Very fast early and then slow late.
FWIW,
From what I read both Stevens & Baffert liked the work. The horse was a little more aggressive than they were planning. Then relaxed him after 4F.
I think you\'ll see Mor Spirit no more than 4-5 lengths off the lead down the backstretch, barring trouble and a ridiculous pace. I think the key is whether or not they can get his rally started earlier than the 1/8 pole this time.
FWIW,
http://www.paulickreport.com/news/triple-crown/mor-spirits-anteater-action-reminds-gary-stevens-p-indy/
One of the more followed clockers had positive comments (tweets) about the first fast work as well, a few days after the fact.
Not buying any positive comments about how Mor Spirit is working. In his last work at SA, rider had to hit him right handed several times on the turn to keep him from bearing out.
Not impressed with this work either. Well, at least he handled the turn better.
I have him as my hedge to Exaggerator in the pools. Zero confidence in the Mor Spirit ticket.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Not buying any positive comments about how Mor
> Spirit is working. In his last work at SA, rider
> had to hit him right handed several times on the
> turn to keep him from bearing out.
>
> Not impressed with this work either. Well, at
> least he handled the turn better.
>
> I have him as my hedge to Exaggerator in the
> pools. Zero confidence in the Mor Spirit ticket.
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.
I thought the issue with workouts is not positive or negative...you need to be able to evaluate how the horse\'s workouts compare to his normal prior workouts. If the sheet you are looking at was produced by prior crappy workouts, then why should new crappy workouts be an issue for today\'s race? However, I freely admit to having no special edge in evaluating workouts.
I will say that it sure looks like this horse does not like wet tracks, so I wouldn\'t worry about workouts on a wet track. BTW, if he does win the Derby, and it pours at the Preakness, we may be looking at a Bee Bee Bee and Riva Ridge scenario again (called that one here first) Ka-Ching!
Man, a Bee Bee Bee reference. Wow.
Hoping for some grand revelation out of the seminar, but right now I have them (EXAG/MOR) 1/2 on just about every ticket. Looking at the BB record in this race is like watching Starks shoot 3\'s and from 2012 on it\'s mostly tops and pairs of prev. tops. BODE went backwards, but still placed. Can\'t let that pass at 10-1, hopefully higher.
EXAG just looks like the light went on last race, slop/fast pace, whichever, but the three preps make it hard to see him not pairing or better.
That was one year before Rezlegal and I started going to the Spa and this year will be 44 for both of us!!!!!!!
Happy Anniversary to us both- Desert Vixen,Braulio Baeza and Tommy Root at my first Alabama- in the slop after a thunderstorm. It takes a special, read sick, kind of mind to remember that. And guys wore seersucker in the box seats. Looking forward.Good luck to all this weekend- a bragging rights weekend.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Man, a Bee Bee Bee reference. Wow.
Was really meaning to equate Riva Ridge and Mor Spirit, but Mor Spirit needs to win Derby first and then it needs to rain for the Preakness......however, Bee Bee Bee seemed an easy shorthand way to get the point across.
Of course, you need to figure out who will be No Le Hace to have the exacta in both races (not that there was an exacta in 1972).....which reminds me....when exotic bets first came into being, I remember the minimums being crazy high.....I think the first exacta I ever bet was a $5 exacta because that was the minimum for the wager....when you had to bet so much on a combo it made you think long and hard before boxing etc. Also, at first, they did not have box windows....you had to punch out (and in those machines it was punched) all six combos if you wanted a box.....windows where you could buy a box were a big step forward....all of this to bring me around to ask....does anybody know if they are going to allow dime supers on the derby or not?
Mor Spirit has moved to the top of my list this week. I still like a few others like Whitmore and I give Candy a shot to steal it on the front end, but Mor Spirit will likely be my key on Saturday, pending the PP draw.
It\'s not the pristine Derby pattern that one likes to see, but:
1) The horse has proven to be fast enough to win this race twice already.
2) Legit surface excuses in the SA Derby, and he still out-ran all the others that were near the lead.
3) He\'s training super-well and is gliding over the track. Loved his works.
4) Baffert is no stooge. His bullets fire in the Derby more than any other trainer ever.
Mor Spirit = Think Real Quiet
I go into this \"bragging rights\" thing in the seminar. If you get ego invested you make bad decisions. There are races to bet all day.
The horse I think of when I see Mor Spirit is Jackson Bend.
Huge 2yo figure, seemed to be heading into the Derby okay, and just did not take to the slop at all. Came back two weeks later and fired a monster in the Preakness over a fast track.
I think Mor Spirit is right there, but a race sooner, and his pedigree is much stronger than JB\'s was and overall a better looking horse.
Just listened to Welsch on Steve Byk radio show. He does not think that Mor Spirit has settled and has been very hard to handle in Kentucky. Much like Mohaymen but to a lesser extent.
SEK,
No argument with 1,2 and 4, but cannot comprehend that Mor Spirit is \"training well\". Work prior to shipping he was under the stick, then was very rank and ran off with the boy and in his last would not go by a maiden who he had pinned on the rail? bbb
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-PixcjEz3Q
From a very good clocker, Gary Young, who has seen Mor Spirit work many times in Southern Cal: \"It was a far above average work for this horse.\"
Oh the irony in that comparison. JB was a fine horse who ran into an absolute buzz saw on the derby trail - beaten 10 lengths in consecutive preps by . . . the sire of Mor Spirit.
For a horse that doesn\'t like a wet track, he sure ran well on it at Churchill in November.
Good Luck,
Joe B
Dead wrong. Completely, 180 degrees, wrong. Per figures, Baffert, everyone but you.
No dime supers.. $1 minumum.
Even without dime supers the servers at Twinspires and Xpressbet slow to a crawl about 5-10 minutes before post. I assume dime supers would just about bring it all to a complete standstill on Derby day.
Jerry:
Before you tell someone they\'re \"dead wrong\" you should watch the race.
You know what they say.....there\'s lies, damn lies, quotes from trainers, and peformance numbers on tiring wet tracks.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I watched the race, which is irrelevant. Baffert watched the race, which is not. I made a figure. Whatever that horse may do on an off track in the future-- and both times he was coming off a top-- he ran poorly that day.
jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> For a horse that doesn\'t like a wet track, he sure
> ran well on it at Churchill in November.
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B
If you are right, then, arguendo, the number given for that effort is wrong. To correct the number for what you are saying, you would need to take 3 or so points off the number. However, if you do that, then you need to do the same to Gun Runner and Mo Tom. The good news for you is that if you make adjustments based on those visual observations, you will be finding horses like Gun Runner and Mo Tom to be having a much better chance of outrunning their odds and making them bettable (unless of course on the basis of that adjustment you decided that Mo Tom and Gun Runner are mud specialists as that Churchill number would now be the lifetime top for both of them (but that is not the case for Mor Spirit who will still have two better tops on dry tracks even if you correct the Churchill number by the same adjustment)). This is why they run horseraces. If Mor Spirit wins on Saturday and then it rains at the Preakness, it will be a very interesting debate.