What to do with the one\'s that come off the pace? Someone\'s getting a dream trip, someone\'s not. Who\'s saving, who\'s not? Do they have different closing styles, if there is such a thing? Can you re-rally? Jockey skills come into play. Who will and wont come up the rail? I\'m all in on Uncle Mo! Crushed (broke even) the Arlington Million card a few back betting Ramsey/Kitten\'s Joy. I\'ll let a Tapit beat me at a mile and a quarter everyday. Because even if you win its seems like a gut wrenching race. And so much more, enjoying all (most) of it.
The last 3 times the derby winner was in the 1 path on both turns were the 3 Borel winners. Not sure when the last time someone else won in the 1 path all the way around. It won\'t be Borel on the rail this time. TG even has War Emblem 2 wide on both turns in his win. Is there another jockey that can ride the rail?
Corey Lanerie.. except it didn\'t work out so well for him and Mo Tom in the Risen Star and LA Derby.
But Lanerie is big on saving ground.
Lanerie seems to like the rail quite a bit with his mount.
After the dressing down he got after the LA Derby, I would be shocked if he took the rail - even if it was available.
There he was the best horse per Amoss and instructed to stay clear of trouble, not the case here so he might take the inland route in a change of strategy.
SteveB Wrote:
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> The last 3 times the derby winner was in the 1
> path on both turns were the 3 Borel winners. Not
> sure when the last time someone else won in the 1
> path all the way around. It won\'t be Borel on the
> rail this time. TG even has War Emblem 2 wide on
> both turns in his win. Is there another jockey
> that can ride the rail?
You don\'t necessarily have to ride the rail, you just need to save more ground than the horses you\'re trying to run down. I don\'t know if riding the rail in a field this large is the greatest idea. Find a seam and shoot through it.
This race strikes me as one where I don\'t want anyone trying to close from off the pace. The winner comes from the front end or one of the 2(?) stalkers, exotics sure.
FWIW, from a historical perspective from 1986 to 2011. Winning Running style averages.
Wire - 12%
Stalk -22%
Mid Pack Stalk - 4%
Rally -27%
Deep Rally -35%
If my memory serves me right:
2012 I\'ll have another ???
2013 Orb -Deep Rally
2014 Chrome -Stalk
2015 AP -Stalk